Fantasy Baseball Buy Low Candidates: Ten Worst BABIP (Pitcher's Edition)

Yesterday we looked at the Top Ten BABIP (click here to view the article), so today let’s take a look at the Ten Worst BABIP and see if there are any buy low candidates among them:

1. Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians - .420
There’s an awful lot to take in when it comes to Masterson’s early 2010 campaign.  You have a strikeout rate unlike anything he’s ever produced (10.46 K/9), to go along with the terrible luck on balls put in play and a BB/9 above 4.00 once again (his major league career mark is 4.13).  There’s no way the strikeouts maintain this type of level, meaning that even as his luck improves, more balls will be put into play so he’s still going to give up his fair share of hits.  Considering that he also walks too many hitters, there’s a lot not to like.  Of course, a ground ball rate of well over 50 percent (56.8 percent) helps to offset a lot of the problems.  If he could ever get his control in order, he’s going to be a must use.  As of right now, he’s a bench option at best until he shows us more.

2. Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds - .384
Who cares?  I mean, here is a pitcher who has been hyped and hyped and hyped some more, yet he still hasn’t delivered on the mound.  It’s easy to point to this type of number and say, “look, he’s got to turn it around sooner or later.”  To me, you are just looking for a reason to take the gamble on him.  Until he can string together a few good starts, the risk far outweighs the reward.  This type of number isn’t enough to make me take the plunge on him.

3. Randy Wells, Chicago Cubs - .370
Despite the poor luck, Wells has still managed to post a 3.45 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.  How?  Impeccable control, with a 1.44 BB/9.  Over his minor league career he posted a BB/9 of 2.6, so limiting bases on balls is nothing new to him, but I don’t think we can expect him to maintain the impressive pace he’s set for himself early on.  Still, his improved luck will offset any decrease in luck he experiences, meaning he should continue to perform.  No, he’s not a buy low, given his early success, but he’s a safe bet to continue using in all formats.

4t. Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox - .369
Floyd is developing the trend of being a slow starter.  Last April he was sporting a 5.57 ERA and 1.79 WHIP after suffering from poor luck (.378 BABIP).  This year the numbers are fairly similar, with a 6.49 ERA and 1.67 WHIP.  Given the tremendous turnaround he had once the calendar turned to May (3.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), now is the perfect time to once again try to buy low on him.

4t. Luke Hochevar, Kansas City Royals - .369
He’s very similar to Bailey, isn’t he?  We’ve been hearing all about the hype.  Last season he had even produced spectacularly at Triple-A prior to being recalled (1.50 ERA over 48.0 IP), yet failed miserably upon joining the major league team.  Throw in the fact that Zack Greinke can’t even get a win, and there’s a lot not to like.  I know you want to point to the extremely unlucky 56.7 percent strand rate, but until he actually starts to see positive results, I’m not going to touch him.

6. Jonathan Niese, New York Mets - .368
This is an extremely interesting player to keep an eye on.  Despite the poor luck, he’s posted a 3.10 ERA.  He has benefited from an increased strand rate (79.4 percent), but that’s the only thing that you can really say.  The control isn’t terrible (3.72 BB/9) and he certainly calls a hitter’s park home.  His last start in Philadelphia, allowing just four hits over seven innings, gives you a taste of what he’s capable of.  If the luck continues to fall in his favor on the balls put in play (as it did in Philadelphia), he has the potential to post an extremely palatable season for fantasy owners.  If you are in a deeper format, he’s definitely a player I’d stash if you have room on your roster.

7. Edwin Jackson, Arizona Diamondbacks - .362
I had my concerns about him moving to the NL, but this is ridiculous.  The strikeouts have fallen (4.7 from 6.8).  Everything put in play seems to be finding a hole.  His strand rate is just 57.7 percent.  His velocity is down about a mph (93.6) from ‘09, but that’s not far enough off his career mark of 94.1.  Basically, everything is going to get better, it almost has to.  If you have the opportunity to buy low on him, I certainly would.

8. Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers - .358
We all know the story.  Since about mid-season 2009, he just hasn’t been the same pitcher.  He has suffered from poor luck in not only the BABIP, but also his strand rate (63.8 percent).  The strikeouts are reasonable (8.0 K/9) and there is room for improvement in his control (4.2 BB/9).  Basically, the moral of this quick story is that Billingsley is not a pitcher that you should be giving up on.  The dominant pitcher he’s displayed in the past is still in there, he just needs a little bit of luck, along with turning a small corner, to get there.

9t. Kevin Slowey, Minnesota Twins - .357
Tremendous control helps to offset bad luck, doesn’t it?  What’s amazing is that we haven’t even seen the best of his control yet, either.  With a career BB/9 of 1.5, he easily could improve on the 2.8 he’s posted thus far.  So, while his 3.77 ERA is aided by a strand rate of 79.9 percent, the number of base runners he’s allows should decrease as his starts to continue.  That makes him a great pitcher to own from this point forward.

9t. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies - .357
We waited for his luck to turn in 2009 and it never really happened, did it?  The BABIP is inflated, but so is his strikeout rate (10.6 compared to a career mark of 8.5).  Outside of that, the only number that points to a potential improvement is the 20.6 percent HR/FB, which should come back down despite pitching in Citizen’s Bank Ballpark.  It’s impossible for me to say anything but to hold onto Hamels (or try to acquire him on the cheap) and hope for the best.

What are your thoughts on these pitchers?  Who would you try to buy low on?  Who would you avoid?

To view the previous article, click here .

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