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Playing Pepper 2010: New York Mets
Daniel ShoptawMar 10, 2010
C70: How was the off-season? What kind of grade would you give it?
EKS: I'd have to say a D since the top needs for the team weren'taddressed with the exception of adding Jason Bayand his home run stroke. The Mets needed to add a front line pitcher, a #1 catcher, and improve the defense at 2ndbase. Instead they've added a bunch of back end of the rotation and AAAApitchers and a load of under study backstops. Management tried every which wayto unload Luis Castillo but due to his awful contract they couldn't and theyhaven't either the stomach or financial where with all to cut him loose. Whatmakes the infield situation worse is Felipe Lopez still on the market and AlexCora has a $2mil contract. Omar Minaya tells Mets fans he wants to build a teamthrough pitching, defense, youth and speed and then goes out and does theopposite. And you want to know why Mets fans tend to get angry?
HA: I was not very impressed with the Mets off-season. They signed JasonBay, which was a positive, but he is merely a replacement for CarlosDelgado in the batting lineup. Outside of first base and catcher,management didn't add much positional depth, which is something thathurt the team greatly last year. The same thing goes for pitching. Theentire rotation is riddled with question marks, including ace JohanSantana.
MR: I would give the Mets a "C+" for the offseason.I'm more optimistic than many fans though. They earned the grade byfilling their biggest hole, a left fielder with power, by signing JasonBay. There are still some deficiencies that weren't addressed verywell though: catcher, first base, and starting pitcher. That's whatkept the Mets from getting a higher grade in my opinion.
OTB: Iwould give the Mets a C-. In my opinion the Mets had three major needsto fill: Starting Pitching, LF and 1b. They only adequately addressedone position (LF) with Jason Bay.
HA: The key to success this off-season is how successful the middle of thestarting rotation (Maine, Pelfrey and Perez) is. If Maine and Perez canperform at a level near their 2007 performances this team will be aWild Card contender. If their performances replicate last season thenthis team is in big trouble.
MR: The key to success will be the Mets top playersstaying healthy this year. The 2009 season was filled with long-terminjuries to key players and resulted in a 70 win season. The Mets needCarlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, John Maine, and even Oliver Perez to behealthy all season long this year. All of them spent significant timeon the disabled list in 2009.
OTB: Ithink the key is starting pitching. Not just with the Mets but anyteam. The Mets are going to need very good years out of Mike Pelfrey,John Maine and Oliver Perez if they hope to compete for the playoffs.
HA: The team's bullpen could be their biggest strength this season. Ifhealthy Kelvim Escobar could be a dominant setup man, which issomething the team hasn't had since Duaner Sanchez in the first half of2006. I'm also intrigued by how Bobby Parnell performs, presumably as aseventh inning specialist. Lefty submariner, Jay Marshall, also has adecent chance at making the club. This should make it more difficultfor opposing left-handed hitters to get hits in the later innings.
MR: The team's strength in 2010 will be theiroffense. If everyone is healthy, they'll certainly improve on theirleague-low 95 team home runs with Daniel Murphy leading the team with12. I expect much more scoring than we saw last year, even in spaciousCiti Field.
OTB: Ithink the strongest part of the team is there outfield (when Beltrancomes back from injury). A potential starting outfield of Jason Bay,Carlos Beltran and Jeff Francoeur is a very formidable outfield.
HA: Centerfield could be the Mets' Achilles heel. This is no slight toAngel Pagan, but if Carlos Beltran is out for a prolonged amount oftime the team's offense will really suffer. Pagan, himself, is injuryprone and if he were to get hurt that would leave Gary Matthews Jr. incenter, which would be atrocious.
MR: Starting pitching could be a big problem for theMets. Fans were clamoring for reinforcements in the offseason and itdidn't happen. The Mets are counting on Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, andOliver Perez to have good seasons (which none had last year). Mets fansare very concerned that the rotation could get ugly.
OTB: Thebullpen might be a potential problem. K-Rod struggled down the stretchlast season and I don't think the Mets are really sure what they aregoing to do in the 8th inning yet.
HA: I think the MVP of the 2010 Mets will be David Wright. Last seasondespite all the injuries to the team and to himself, David proved thathe could maintain a positive attitude and put together a respectableseason, despite the significant drop-off in power. I think his numberswill rebound greatly and he will make his perennial run at NL MVP.
MR: I expect Jose Reyes to be the team MVP for 2010.After playing only 36 games in 2009, I think he'll be back with avengeance. I'm expecting 20+ triples, 18+ home runs, and 75+ stolenbases this year from Reyes. He's in the last year of his contract witha club option for 2011 at $11 million. If nothing else, he'll bemotivated financially to put on a show this year.
OTB: DavidWright. I expect him to have a bounce back year at the plate,specifically in the home run department. I recently asked my viewers howmany HRs will Wright hit in 2010 and 55% say he will hit between 20-30home runs. I agree, I think he will be in the 25 home run range. If hehas healthy guys around him (Beltran, Bay, Francoeur) he could have abig year at the plate.
EKS: First guy I think of is Josh Thole if he makes the team outof spring training. Thole can hit but he is a catching neophyte. If he canprove his skill behind the plate this spring he could be a ROY candidate for sure. The other is Ike Davis who if Daniel Murphysputters or get injured could be up to play 1st base. I am alsolooking to see if RHP Brad Holt or RHP Tobi Stoner does enough in springtraining to make the 12 man pitching staff.
HA: Josh Thole is a guy that I think has a shot at making a big impact thisseason if he can improve on his defense. It won't be long before theteam realizes that Omir Santos and Henry Blanco won't suffice. If Tholecontinues to hit and shows that he can man the plate better in theminors, expect to see him in the big leagues midway through the season.
MR: I really don't expect any rookies to have a bigimpact in 2010 unless Rod Barajas isn't playing well. Barajas' contractis so low at $500k, that the Mets can just release him if he doesn'tplay well. That would leave the door open for rookie catcher JoshThole. Thole hit .321 in 17 games last September and he's looking likethe Mets catcher of the future. That future could be sooner than laterif 34 year-old Barajas doesn't have it anymore.
OTB: Idon't think so. The Mets have some young players that are on the fringeof being big league players but I don't know if anyone is ready justyet.
HA: Despite the criticism of late I believe Daniel Murphy will be thebreakout player this season. I really believe that the competition atfirst base will light a fire under Murphy and I wouldn't be surprisedto see him produce a 15 HR/80 RBI season.
MR: I believe the breakout player for the Mets willbe Mike Pelfrey. He just turned 26 years-old and he's got 80 careerstarts under his belt. Pelfrey was the Mets first round pick in 2005and he's coming into this year having lost 25 pounds with a newtraining plan. I really think he's going to prove that he can be asuccessful #2 in the rotation.
OTB: Idon't know if anyone will have a "breakout" year but I'm looking forJeff Francoeur to bounce back and return to his form of 2006 and 2007.I recently did a blog post where I stated that Jeff Francoeur is one ofthe keys to success in the Mets offense this season. He needs to have abig year.
C70: Which player will drop off the most from 2009?
HA: Luis Castillo is a prime candidate to drop-off in production in 2010.Last season he hit for an impressive .302 batting average, howeveraccording to the New York Daily News' Adam Rubin, his average wassomewhat inflated due to a number of ground outs that were ruledsacrifice bunts. Don't be surprised to see his average dip down to the.260 - .270 range.
MR: I'm torn on this question because I don't thinkthere's any chance that Luis Castillo will play as well as he did lastyear. But I don't think Jason Bay will be able to duplicate the 36 HR119 RBI's that he had with Boston last year. Citi Field is too big andBay doesn't have the lineup around him that he did in Boston. I expectBay to play well, but not to rival the season he had last year. I thinkhe'll have about 29 HRs and 90-95 RBIs.
OTB: Luis Castillo had a nice 2009 but I don't expect him to do that again.
EKS: Daniel Murphy. If he does get dealt, I hope goes to a teamthat appreciates hard work and a great attitude because the Mets front officesure doesn't.
HA: If he has a productive first half in Triple A, I think it's possiblethe team could ship Fernando Martinez away in a package for possibly alegitimate number two starting pitcher. It seems that Fernando isanxious to make it to the big leagues and there doesn't appear to be anopening in the near future unless the team parts ways with JeffFrancoeur next season.
MR: Angel Pagan will probably be trade bait thisyear. He played really well in CF in 88 games last year while Beltranwas hurt. He hit .306 with 39 extra-base hits and 14 SB. He candefinitely play every day for someone, but it likely won't be the Metswhen Beltran comes back from injury in May.
OTB: I think we will hear names like Fernando Martinez, Daniel Murphy and Bobby Parnell mentioned in trade talks at some point.
HA: I predict that the Mets will finish with an 82-80 record, which will be good enough for third place in the NL East.
MR: The Mets will likely finish at or near 85-77.That should be good enough for second place (behind the Phillies) andmaybe a shot at the wild card. It hurts to pick the Phillies to win thedivision again as a Mets fan, but they're too good and adding RoyHalladay doesn't help matters. The Marlins and Braves appear to havetaken a step back and the Nationals look to be better than last year.That combination should make 85 wins good enough for second place inthe division.
OTB: Ifhealthy, I think the Mets will win between 80-85 games and finish in2nd or 3rd place in the division. As currently put together, I don'tthink the Mets are a playoff team. They might be in the wild card racecoming down the stretch but realistically I think the Mets need toimprove their starting pitching and they need some power from the lefthand side of the plate.
My thanks to all these guys for chipping in. The Mets seem to be a team that it's tough to get a feel for--health is such a major factor for them, and the spring hasn't been completely kind in that regard. If they are healthy, though, they'll make some noise.
HA: I was not very impressed with the Mets off-season. They signed JasonBay, which was a positive, but he is merely a replacement for CarlosDelgado in the batting lineup. Outside of first base and catcher,management didn't add much positional depth, which is something thathurt the team greatly last year. The same thing goes for pitching. Theentire rotation is riddled with question marks, including ace JohanSantana.
MR: I would give the Mets a "C+" for the offseason.I'm more optimistic than many fans though. They earned the grade byfilling their biggest hole, a left fielder with power, by signing JasonBay. There are still some deficiencies that weren't addressed verywell though: catcher, first base, and starting pitcher. That's whatkept the Mets from getting a higher grade in my opinion.
OTB: Iwould give the Mets a C-. In my opinion the Mets had three major needsto fill: Starting Pitching, LF and 1b. They only adequately addressedone position (LF) with Jason Bay.
C70: What is the key to success for 2010?
EKS: Health. Pure and simple. As poorly managed as thisorganization is, if the key players stay healthy, the team will be a contenderbut with the huge disconnect between the medical and training staff with thefront office, we have to hope for the best. HA: The key to success this off-season is how successful the middle of thestarting rotation (Maine, Pelfrey and Perez) is. If Maine and Perez canperform at a level near their 2007 performances this team will be aWild Card contender. If their performances replicate last season thenthis team is in big trouble.
MR: The key to success will be the Mets top playersstaying healthy this year. The 2009 season was filled with long-terminjuries to key players and resulted in a 70 win season. The Mets needCarlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, John Maine, and even Oliver Perez to behealthy all season long this year. All of them spent significant timeon the disabled list in 2009.
OTB: Ithink the key is starting pitching. Not just with the Mets but anyteam. The Mets are going to need very good years out of Mike Pelfrey,John Maine and Oliver Perez if they hope to compete for the playoffs.
C70: What will be the team's strength?
EKS: Good question. It's hard to say; again, it's back to health.If the eight regulars manage to stay on the field and in the lineup then theMets will be as good as any team in the NL. If Kelvin Escobar is back to hispre-injury way and Bobby Parnell takes his game up another level then thebullpen is a major strength. Same with the starting pitching if Ollie Perez,Mike Pelfrey and John Maine live up to expectation the rotation could bestrength. As you see there are a lot of "ifs" and "coulds" with this team.HA: The team's bullpen could be their biggest strength this season. Ifhealthy Kelvim Escobar could be a dominant setup man, which issomething the team hasn't had since Duaner Sanchez in the first half of2006. I'm also intrigued by how Bobby Parnell performs, presumably as aseventh inning specialist. Lefty submariner, Jay Marshall, also has adecent chance at making the club. This should make it more difficultfor opposing left-handed hitters to get hits in the later innings.
MR: The team's strength in 2010 will be theiroffense. If everyone is healthy, they'll certainly improve on theirleague-low 95 team home runs with Daniel Murphy leading the team with12. I expect much more scoring than we saw last year, even in spaciousCiti Field.
OTB: Ithink the strongest part of the team is there outfield (when Beltrancomes back from injury). A potential starting outfield of Jason Bay,Carlos Beltran and Jeff Francoeur is a very formidable outfield.
C70: What could be their Achilles' heel?
EKS: The front office especially the owner. Jeff Wilpon thinkshe's a "baseball man" but he's really a guy who was born to wealthy parents.There is a lot of mistrust between the ownership/front office with the playersand the fans and that has to be addressed and rectified. Also, if the team isin contention come the trade deadline will they pull off a deal that could putthe team over the top to win a pennant or are there enough money concerns thatwould trump such a move?HA: Centerfield could be the Mets' Achilles heel. This is no slight toAngel Pagan, but if Carlos Beltran is out for a prolonged amount oftime the team's offense will really suffer. Pagan, himself, is injuryprone and if he were to get hurt that would leave Gary Matthews Jr. incenter, which would be atrocious.
MR: Starting pitching could be a big problem for theMets. Fans were clamoring for reinforcements in the offseason and itdidn't happen. The Mets are counting on Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, andOliver Perez to have good seasons (which none had last year). Mets fansare very concerned that the rotation could get ugly.
OTB: Thebullpen might be a potential problem. K-Rod struggled down the stretchlast season and I don't think the Mets are really sure what they aregoing to do in the 8th inning yet.
C70: Who will be the team's MVP?
EKS: It will be between Johan Santana and Jose Reyes. HA: I think the MVP of the 2010 Mets will be David Wright. Last seasondespite all the injuries to the team and to himself, David proved thathe could maintain a positive attitude and put together a respectableseason, despite the significant drop-off in power. I think his numberswill rebound greatly and he will make his perennial run at NL MVP.
MR: I expect Jose Reyes to be the team MVP for 2010.After playing only 36 games in 2009, I think he'll be back with avengeance. I'm expecting 20+ triples, 18+ home runs, and 75+ stolenbases this year from Reyes. He's in the last year of his contract witha club option for 2011 at $11 million. If nothing else, he'll bemotivated financially to put on a show this year.
OTB: DavidWright. I expect him to have a bounce back year at the plate,specifically in the home run department. I recently asked my viewers howmany HRs will Wright hit in 2010 and 55% say he will hit between 20-30home runs. I agree, I think he will be in the 25 home run range. If hehas healthy guys around him (Beltran, Bay, Francoeur) he could have abig year at the plate.
C70: Will a rookie make a significant impact on the team in2010, and if so, who?
EKS: First guy I think of is Josh Thole if he makes the team outof spring training. Thole can hit but he is a catching neophyte. If he canprove his skill behind the plate this spring he could be a ROY candidate for sure. The other is Ike Davis who if Daniel Murphysputters or get injured could be up to play 1st base. I am alsolooking to see if RHP Brad Holt or RHP Tobi Stoner does enough in springtraining to make the 12 man pitching staff.
HA: Josh Thole is a guy that I think has a shot at making a big impact thisseason if he can improve on his defense. It won't be long before theteam realizes that Omir Santos and Henry Blanco won't suffice. If Tholecontinues to hit and shows that he can man the plate better in theminors, expect to see him in the big leagues midway through the season.
MR: I really don't expect any rookies to have a bigimpact in 2010 unless Rod Barajas isn't playing well. Barajas' contractis so low at $500k, that the Mets can just release him if he doesn'tplay well. That would leave the door open for rookie catcher JoshThole. Thole hit .321 in 17 games last September and he's looking likethe Mets catcher of the future. That future could be sooner than laterif 34 year-old Barajas doesn't have it anymore.
OTB: Idon't think so. The Mets have some young players that are on the fringeof being big league players but I don't know if anyone is ready justyet.
C70: Who will be the breakout player for the team?
EKS: Mike Pelfrey. There is too much talent there for him not tobreakout. Hopefully he has matured emotionally and has learned how to get battersout in the big leagues. A 1-2 punch of Santana and a breakout Big Pelf wouldmake the NL East a very interesting division.MR: I believe the breakout player for the Mets willbe Mike Pelfrey. He just turned 26 years-old and he's got 80 careerstarts under his belt. Pelfrey was the Mets first round pick in 2005and he's coming into this year having lost 25 pounds with a newtraining plan. I really think he's going to prove that he can be asuccessful #2 in the rotation.
OTB: Idon't know if anyone will have a "breakout" year but I'm looking forJeff Francoeur to bounce back and return to his form of 2006 and 2007.I recently did a blog post where I stated that Jeff Francoeur is one ofthe keys to success in the Mets offense this season. He needs to have abig year.
C70: Which player will drop off the most from 2009?
EKS: Luis Castillo who is only losing more and more range at 2ndbase.
HA: Luis Castillo is a prime candidate to drop-off in production in 2010.Last season he hit for an impressive .302 batting average, howeveraccording to the New York Daily News' Adam Rubin, his average wassomewhat inflated due to a number of ground outs that were ruledsacrifice bunts. Don't be surprised to see his average dip down to the.260 - .270 range.
MR: I'm torn on this question because I don't thinkthere's any chance that Luis Castillo will play as well as he did lastyear. But I don't think Jason Bay will be able to duplicate the 36 HR119 RBI's that he had with Boston last year. Citi Field is too big andBay doesn't have the lineup around him that he did in Boston. I expectBay to play well, but not to rival the season he had last year. I thinkhe'll have about 29 HRs and 90-95 RBIs.
OTB: Luis Castillo had a nice 2009 but I don't expect him to do that again.
C70: Who is the most likely player to be dangled as tradebait?
EKS: Daniel Murphy. If he does get dealt, I hope goes to a teamthat appreciates hard work and a great attitude because the Mets front officesure doesn't.
HA: If he has a productive first half in Triple A, I think it's possiblethe team could ship Fernando Martinez away in a package for possibly alegitimate number two starting pitcher. It seems that Fernando isanxious to make it to the big leagues and there doesn't appear to be anopening in the near future unless the team parts ways with JeffFrancoeur next season.
MR: Angel Pagan will probably be trade bait thisyear. He played really well in CF in 88 games last year while Beltranwas hurt. He hit .306 with 39 extra-base hits and 14 SB. He candefinitely play every day for someone, but it likely won't be the Metswhen Beltran comes back from injury in May.
OTB: I think we will hear names like Fernando Martinez, Daniel Murphy and Bobby Parnell mentioned in trade talks at some point.
C70: What will be the team's final record and divisionalstanding?
EKS: This Mets team could be anywhere from an 80 win team to a 90win team. I hate to straddle the fence here but in all honesty the Mets couldfinish anywhere from first to last in the NL East.MR: The Mets will likely finish at or near 85-77.That should be good enough for second place (behind the Phillies) andmaybe a shot at the wild card. It hurts to pick the Phillies to win thedivision again as a Mets fan, but they're too good and adding RoyHalladay doesn't help matters. The Marlins and Braves appear to havetaken a step back and the Nationals look to be better than last year.That combination should make 85 wins good enough for second place inthe division.
OTB: Ifhealthy, I think the Mets will win between 80-85 games and finish in2nd or 3rd place in the division. As currently put together, I don'tthink the Mets are a playoff team. They might be in the wild card racecoming down the stretch but realistically I think the Mets need toimprove their starting pitching and they need some power from the lefthand side of the plate.
My thanks to all these guys for chipping in. The Mets seem to be a team that it's tough to get a feel for--health is such a major factor for them, and the spring hasn't been completely kind in that regard. If they are healthy, though, they'll make some noise.
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