2010 Red Sox Preview: How Will Jacoby Ellsbury Respond to Change?

Back to the future.

Meet Jacoby Ellsbury, the Red Sox's one-time center fielder of the future who is currently their left fielder and—once again—their center fielder-of the future.

The Red Sox organization has consistently said they regard Ellsbury as an excellent defensive center fielder, but the defensive metrics indicate that he is actually a pretty bad defensive center fielder, or at least he was in 2009 (when his UZR/150 rating was -18.3 ).

There are a couple of problems with the UZR/150 rating system. First of all, from the perspective of most fans, a ballplayer is either a good defensive outfielder or he is not—so it is hard to understand how the UZR/150 for Ellsbury could vary from a 10.5 in 2007 to a +6.9 in 2008 to a -18.3 in 2009 (in center field).

Second, it is hard to understand how he could be SO MUCH BETTER in left field than in center field.

Lastly, his rating is counterintuitive to the general perception of his abilities...and anything that is counterintuitive will generally not take hold in the public consciousness. Red Sox Nation regularly observes Ellsbury making dynamic catches in right- and left-center fields; therefore, these metrics cannot be correct.

But those who have developed the metric explain he typically gets below-average jumps, takes bad routes to the ball, and has a below-average arm. They argue that the observations of the untrained eye are incorrect.

Regardless, asserting the value of any metric is problematic when it varies so much from year to year and from position to position, and when it flies in the face of what we see on a day-to-day basis.

What are we to make of it all? We’re left to balance competing and contradictory indicators. The club declares that it believes in his abilities, while the metrics say they shouldn’t. Then the organization signs CF Mike Cameron and announces Ellsbury is being moved to left field. Actions speak louder than words.

Meanwhile, the player has publicly embraced the change and asserted that he believes the diminished physical demands of playing left field will allow him to flourish offensively. Does that mean his numbers could get even better than 2009?

Last season his numbers were very impressive, but it is arguable they could be better—maybe even much better. (2009 stats: .301 Batting Average, 8 HR, 60 RBI, 94 R, 70 SB, .355 OBP, .770 OPS, .332 BABIP.)

While his contact rate is nearly 90 percent (88.6 percent for his career), he appears to have difficulty with plate discipline and strike zone judgment. His walk rate (7.3 percent) is significantly below league average (8.8 percent) and substantially below what you would want from your leadoff hitter. As a result, his OBP (.355) is above league average but only a tick above the team average (.353).

So, what kind of numbers will he put up in 2010? As I’ve mentioned previously in this series, I am not a devotee of the most widely used projection systems: CHONE, Bill James, and PECOTA. They all have problems.

CHONE projections tend to be strong for hitters but weak for pitchers. The PECOTA system has the opposite problem—it is strong for pitchers but weak for hitters. And while Bill James is well known and an employee of the Red Sox, his annual projections are consistently overly optimistic.

I prefer the work done by Ron Shandler (who is the godfather of "fanalytics") and Mike Podhorzer (the new kid on the block).

Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster is must-reading for any baseball fan, especially if he/she is a fantasy baseball aficionado. Shandler and his minions do great work. They can be found at BaseballHeadquarters.com .

Podhorzer’s predictions at fantasypros911.com went 42-0 when compared head-to-head with other projection systems last year. Seriously, folks, if you don’t know about fantasypros911.com , it’s time that you take a look. Great stuff!

So what do these two systems project for Ellsbury for the upcoming season?

Shandler: .292, 8 HR, 57 RBI, 97 R, 60 SB
Podhorzer: .287, 8 HR, 55 RBI, 95 R, 60 SB

Ellsbury should just keep getting better, and I predict his numbers will actually improve slightly. He will be 26 years old for the majority of the 2010 season (he’ll turn 27 on Sept. 11). The move to left field will keep him stronger.

He will continue to hit in front of Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, and Victor Martinez, and as I expect some improvement from at least two of those players (Pedroia and Ortiz), I believe he’ll see lots of fastballs and score even more runs.

Lastly, his plate discipline APPEARS to be improving. Last year he swung at fewer pitches both in and out of the strike zone, although it remains to be seen whether that represents improved patience or is a function of the fact that opposing pitchers threw fewer first-pitch strikes against him (thereby creating a false impression of increased discipline).

SOX1FAN projection: .304, 7 HR, 52 RBI, 107 R, 67 SB