Adrian Gonzalez to the Boston Red Sox: How the Chicago Cubs Could Make It Real

Though it seems to be all but dead, one of the trendiest trade rumors of this baseball offseason has been a potential deal involving San Diego Padres slugger Adrian Gonzalez and the Boston Red Sox.

Gonzalez, 28 in May, clubbed 40 home runs for San Diego last season, with 28 of those bombs coming away from cavernous PETCO Park.

The main obstacle in the deal is Boston's reticence to give up starting pitching prospect Clay Buchholz, of whom the Padres have a very high opinion.

The deal could get done without Buchholz's involvement, however; it would merely require the involvement of a third team.

Enter Jim Hendry and his injury-riddled Chicago Cubs club.

When last season's relief ace Angel Guzman went down indefinitely with a career-threatening ligament tear in his right shoulder, Chicago's bullpen went from solid but shallow to downright unstable. The team must add a top-flight reliever to give themselves any hope of contending this season.

The first part of the deal, then, would be a closer carousel among the three teams. Heath Bell, the Padres right-hander who posted a 2.43 fielder-independent ERA last season, would go to the Red Sox, taking his $4-million salary with him and alleviating San Diego's constant money crunch. 

Jonathan Papelbon, the Red Sox's All-Star closer for the last four seasons, would be swapped to the Cubs. Chicago would then presumably extend the 29-year-old's contract, as he is headed into his second arbitration year in 2010.

Papelbon's career rates of 10.45 strikeouts and only 2.33 walks per nine innings make him an absolutely elite reliever. The Red Sox, however, have young Daniel Bard waiting to take over the closer's role, and therefore, they might be eager to accept Bell's lower salary at a more advanced age. Papelbon will earn $9.35 million in 2010.

To complete the first phase of the deal, Chicago would ship erratic but intimidating hurler Carlos Marmol to San Diego. Marmol will make just $2.125 million in 2010 and has struck out more batters over the past two seasons than any other reliever in baseball. Unfortunately, he has also walked more batters than any other reliever over that span, and the margin is substantial.

Fortunately for San Diego, they have a stable of highly talented young relievers that would allow Marmol to settle into a lower-pressure role.

With that shake-up complete, the second spinning wheel could be put into motion. This would be the centerpiece part of the deal, with the three teams shuffling first basemen.

Gonzalez, of course, would join the Boston club and immediately be signed to an undoubtedly lucrative deal. That would relieve San Diego of their $4.75-million obligation to the slugger for 2010, as well as a club option for $5.6 million in 2011.

Boston would then send backup corner infielder Mike Lowell to the Cubs. Lowell is 36 and enters 2010 without any prospect of starting for the Red Sox, who signed third baseman Adrian Beltre this winter to fill what had been Lowell's post for the four previous years. Yet, when healthy, he still shows the ability to hit. In 2009, he batted .290/.337/.474 in 484 plate appearances, with 17 homers and 75 RBI.

Lowell also plays average defense at third base for his career, although his Ultimate Zone Rating numbers fell off sharply last season, according to FanGraphs. Lowell has never played first base as a Major Leaguer but has the chops to make the transition smoothly. His contract, worth $12 million, expires after 2010.

So does the $13-million contract of incumbent Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee, whom the team would send to San Diego in this phase. Lee enjoyed a resurgent power year in 2009, belting more home runs (35) than he had managed since 2005 and setting a new career high with 111 RBI. At 34, Lee is starting to age, but he can still provide solid value to the Padres with both his bat and his glove.

All that remains, then, is to even things out. Boston would send outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury to San Diego and move their current first baseman Kevin Youkilis to left field to accommodate Gonzalez. Junichi Tazawa, who reached the Major Leagues after a stellar showing in the minors at age 23 last year, would also be included.

The Cubs would fulfill their original duty to the trade by sending shortstop Starlin Castro to San Diego as well.

The Padres would then send Chicago right-handed starter Kevin Correia, whom they only begrudgingly signed to this $3.6-million deal for 2010, and would receive Cubs southpaw prospect James Russell.

With the personnel assets in place, all that would remain to be hammered out would be monetary considerations. The three players San Diego sheds in the hypothetical deal—Gonzalez, Bell, and Correia—are owed a combined $12.35 million in 2010. Lee, Marmol, Castro, Ellsbury, and Tazawa will be paid $16.5 million.

Chicago, meanwhile, rids themselves of $15.55 million in Lee, Marmol, and Castro but accepts $24.95 million in the persons of Papelbon, Lowell, and Correia.

Boston, finally, takes on Bell and Gonzalez at $8.75 million, while trading away some $22.25 million.

It is assumed that, even given the high return of talent San Diego would get, they need to cut $3 million from their original payroll to make the deal feasible. Chicago can afford only to add $6 million to their own budget. Boston, then, would need to fill the remaining $10.5-million doughnut hole by paying Chicago Papelbon's full 2010 salary and allotting $500,000 to San Diego for each of Ellsbury and Tazawa.

This deal is unlikely to ever even be discussed, of course. It is convoluted, involving 11 players, three teams, and over $50 million in 2010 salary alone. Lee and Lowell each have no-trade restrictions in their contracts. Castro and Tazawa are highly touted prospects with whom their respective organizations would be very reluctant to part, for public relations reasons if no others.

The trade has one feature that makes it intriguing, however: It would improve all three teams, both short-term and in the long run. 

Boston would be able to sandwich Gonzalez into what would become a true juggernaut offense and could save money in the back end of the bullpen as it waits for Bard to stake his claim to the closer's role. The move also fits GM Theo Epstein's recent predilection for defense, as Gonzalez is a two-time Gold Glove winner at first base.

Chicago would add the two things it needs most: front-line pitching help and World Series savvy. Papelbon, after all, recorded the final out of the Sox's 2007 World Series victory, and Lowell won the Series MVP that year after first winning a ring with the 2003 Florida Marlins.

Correia could bolster the back end of the rotation tremendously, especially in the early part of the season while the team awaits the return of injured ace Ted Lilly.

San Diego, aside from financial relief, would get a bevy of talented young players. Marmol could flourish under the smaller limelight of San Diego and might discover the command that is all he needs to become truly dominant. Lee, aside from his considerable on-field contributions, could bring along stud power-hitting prospect Kyle Blanks and be a leader in the clubhouse.

Castro would bump defensively challenged incumbent shortstop Everth Cabrera over to second base, finally ending the undeserved reign of David Eckstein. Ellsbury would be an immediate upgrade to the team's defense in center field and could spark their offense from the leadoff spot much more effectively than any current Padres hitter.

Tazawa and Russell, meanwhile, would add even more depth to a remarkable corps of very young pitching talent.

All told, the deal would be one of the largest blockbusters in years and would provide a fascinating test case for a new method of building and engineering trades centered around team and organizational need, rather than strict accounting of the quantity of talent on each side of the deal. It will not happen, but that does not mean it should not happen.