Can David Aardsma Really Repeat His 2009 Season?

There are a lot of things in life that surprise me.

I am surprised every week that I watch Lost.

I am surprised that my trivia team didn’t win the “Bar Award” even though we clearly without a shadow of a doubt deserved it.

I am also surprised how Isiah Thomas keeps landing jobs despite the fact that everything he has touched since he has retired has turned into elephant dung.

But perhaps nothing has surprised me more in baseball over the last 12 months than the year David Aardsma had in 2009 with the Seattle Mariners. Why hasn’t his year been talked about more?

Aardsma was the scrub of all scrubs going into the 2009 season, and all he did was become one of the best relief pitchers in the game. Aardsma was a rock for the Mariners last year, netting 38 saves in 42 chances with a 2.38 ERA, while striking out a career-high 10.09 batters per nine innings.

His emergence allowed guys like Mark Lowe and Sean White to pitch in roles they were comfortable with and stabilized the entire bullpen. Aardsma was truly a rags to riches story.

So the question is, can Aardsma really repeat his 2009 season in 2010?

I would say there is a better chance of Bobby Knight returning to the University of Indiana than that happening.

If you look at Aardsma’s peripherals from 2009, they weren’t much different than they were in 2007 and 2008, when he was a ham n’ egger with the Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox.

He struck out 10.09 batters per nine innings in 2009 and averaged 9.4 K/9 in 2007 and 2008. He walked 4.29 batters/9 last year, and in '07 and '08 he walked 5.8/9. While Aardsma did improve in both areas, it wasn’t enough to justify his miraculous turnaround.

So what was the reason for his unbelievable turnaround? I am going to say the Mariners' outstanding defense and a lot of luck.

The Mariners had the best defensive team in baseball last year, and I am sure Aardsma, just like the rest of the Mariners’ staff, was helped out by Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro tracking down fly balls in the outfield.

However, I just think Aardsma was lucky last year.

Relief pitchers are like kickers in the NFL. One year they are studs, and the next year they are mental cases and on the verge of being out of a job. Take Dallas Cowboys kicker Nick Folk. That guy was a stud in 2008, and last year he was just terrible.

There was no logical explanation for his season. It just happened.

I think Aardsma just had one of those years last year where everything clicked for him. That was his career year. I just can’t believe that he is going to come anywhere close to his 2009 year in 2010.

I will go as far as saying he doesn’t even make it through the whole year as the Mariners’ closer. This is one of the reasons why I don’t believe the Mariners will make the playoffs in 2010.

The Mariners addressed every aspect of their team this offseason except for a power hitter and bullpen. It’s usually the sure thing or what you think is a sure thing that comes back to haunt you in the regular season. We have seen it time and time again in sports.

Look at the New York Mets in 2009. Their bullpen was a disaster in 2008, so they went out and addressed their bullpen in the offseason, and everything else fell apart last year. I expect the same thing to happen to the Mariners in 2010.

I will say that Aardsma finishes the year with an ERA over 4.00 and around 16 saves before he loses his job.

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