Padres' Adrian Gonzalez Trade Inevitable: Red Sox, Cubs and Mariners Top List

With extension talks likely unproductive, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez’s agent and the Padres front office are indicating the franchise-caliber player will be dealt before the July 31^st trade deadline. If Gonzalez is traded, the Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs and Seattle Mariners lead a short list of probable destinations.

In an interview with the San Diego Union-Tribune , Gonzalez’ agent John Boggs says the Padres “are going to have to trade Adrian Gonzalez because [they] can’t afford him.”

 

Responding to Boggs’ comments, Padres CEO Jeff Moorad states that “early signals indicate [Gonzalez’] cost will be greater than [San Diego’s] ability to pay.”

 

The table is set not for protracted extension talks, but for a pitched battle between a handful of contenders with deep farm systems, deeper pockets and little depth at the corner infield posts.

 

While the Angels and Astros fit the bill somewhat, the Cubs, Mariners, Red Sox and  White Sox shake out as the most likely, serious suitors.

 

The Athletics, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Nationals, Orioles, Pirates, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals and Twins are all categorically incapable of affording a potentially mammoth Gonzalez contract extension.

 

Although normally capable of absorbing such a contract, the Blue Jays, Braves, Indians, and Mets have all recently indicated that their checkbooks are temporarily closed.

 

Then there are those teams who already have hefty or long-term financial commitments at first and third.

 

The Cardinals have Albert Pujols and will be extending him if they’re going to spend twenty to thirty million dollars a year.

 

The Brewers have Prince Fielder and will be looking to keep him at first base. The Phillies have Ryan Howard and Placido Polanco for the forseeable future. The Tigers have Miguel Cabrera and Brandon Inge. The Yankees have Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez.

 

Harboring one of the deepest farm systems in Major League Baseball, as well as the financial might to make a deal, the San Francisco Giants could and should, throw their hat in the ring, but the Padres likely won’t deal their star within the division.

 

That probably rules out the Dodgers, whose interest in Gonzalez is as public of knowledge as the McCourts’ nearly frozen assets.

 

Then there are Anaheim and Houston. While both franchises could afford the slugging Gold Glover, but both have seemed financially gun-shy of late.

 

The Astros have Lance Berkman coming off the books after 2011 and Pedro Feliz signed only through 2010, so they could make room, but everything seems to indicate Houston is tightening the belt. And don’t forget that Houston has one of the worst-stocked, least-productive farm systems in MLB.

 

Similarly, in Anaheim, the Angels’ efforts in the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes suggest they’d be interested in acquiring Gonzalez, but they’d be ultimately incapable of structuring a contract to keep him. If they couldn’t afford Teixeira before the recession, how can they afford Gonzalez during it? That said, Gonzalez is outspoken in his preference for Southern California, so anything’s possible.

 

So, with all that in mind, here are the top four serious contenders for Adrian Gonzalez.

 

 

4. The Chicago White Sox

 

The White Sox make the short list for three reasons.

 

First, despite the recent acquisitions of San Diego’s Jake Peavy and Toronto’s Vernon Wells, the team still possesses the financial resources to extend Gonzalez.

 

Second, Paul Konerko is 34-years old and his contract expires this year. The White Sox will in turn have the need to find a suitable replacement.

 

Third, the White Sox have demonstrated through their recent acquisitions that they’re committed to building a championship-caliber team. They consider themselves players and they feel that to make their club they should be in on Gonzalez.

 

However, Chicago remains the least likely candidate even of the top four, because the White Sox farm system is only a hair stronger than Houston’s.

 

 

3. The Chicago Cubs

 

The other Chicago team, desperate for its first World Championship in more than 100 years, needs someone like Gonzale, and like the White Sox, he’s within the Cubs’ financial grasp.

 

Derek Lee is a star, but he’s 35 and a free agent after 2010. The Cubs will be shopping for a replacement. Jorge Cantu will be available and Carlos Pena is a great free-agent option, but these are the Cubs and they need a star first baseman to rival the Cardinals’ Pujols.

 

As far as trade chips go, the Cubs have the pieces, but they are few and far between. They can dangle 3B Josh Vitters and SS Starlin Castro, but that’s about it.

 

 

2. The Seattle Mariners

 

The Mariners are under new leadership and GM Jack Zduriencik is kicking “dirt” and taking names. Trading Brandon Morrow, signing Chone Figgins, extending Felix Hernandez and acquiring Casey Kotchman all signal a new, more aggressiveve Seattle front office.

 

The Mariners have already tried to get a deal done for Gonzalez and they’ll try again before the deadline.

 

Does Seattle have the necessary trade pieces? Despite a rather thinned farm system, there are potential trade candidates like SS Carlos Trunfiel who could anchor a deal. What’s more, as the trade deadline approaches, the Padres will likely have to settle for less and less. Seattle could take advantage of that and Gonzalez’ West Coast bias.

 

 

1. The Boston Red Sox

 

This isn’t homer-ism and it's not just because GM Jed Hoyer previously worked for Boston.

 

The Red Sox want Gonzalez. They’ve showed their cards far too often to hide them now.

 

The Red Sox have the financial resources, the need and the trade chips.

 

By signing Adrian Beltre to a one-year deal, GM Theo Epstein has retained the corner-infield flexibility necessary to sign Gonzalez should he become available. Kevin Youkilis can move to third and Beltre can walk with a buyout after 2010. Epstein is just waiting.

 

Still, there’s a major question mark here.

 

Are the Red Sox and Theo Epstein willing to pull the trigger and deal some of their top prospects to acquire Gonzalez? 1B Lars Anderson, RHP Michael Bowden, RHP Daniel Bard, RHP Clay Buchholz, OF Jacoby Ellsbury and SS Jed Lowrie should all be on the table.

 

Adrian Gonzalez is as sure a thing as they come and prospects are groomed for dealing as well as playing. Young talent like Ellsbury and Buchholz shouldn’t be off limits.

 

The Red Sox are the front-runner, but they might be too in love with their own, homegrown talent to part with it. 

 

If that’s the case, look for Gonzalez in the Pacific Northwest.