2010 MLB Predictions: John Lackey's Real & Fantasy Red Sox Value

John Lackey is overpaid, but only slightly.

In 2010, Lackey will cash $18 million in checks from the Red Sox ownership group, and as so many Red Sox haters have pointed out, the former Angels’ ace will be overpaid. Of course, as the only top starter cooking on this past winter’s Hot Stove, how could Lackey have not been overpaid?

According to Fangraphs, Lackey’s sabermetric value in a less-than-career-best 2009 weighed in at $17.6 million, so it’s not like the old pit bull will be hoodwinking the Red Sox brass for millions. He’s not Alex Rodriguez.

In fact, over the life of his contract, Lackey should serviceably perform a tad more effectively than his average annual salary. Is he a steal? No. Did the Sox get ripped off? Absolutely not. The Red Sox are paying a fair price for what they’re getting, and they can afford to pay someone what they’re worth.

(Side note: Anyone who thinks ballplayers are overpaid should reread Das Kapital. Seriously, and I’m not a communist, you clever purveyors of all things McCarthy.)

So what exactly are the Red Sox getting? How will John Lackey perform in 2010?

Transitioning from Anaheim to Boston, Lackey loses the benefits of the slightly more pitcher-friendly park he’s called home his entire Major League career. Fenway favors hitters roughly 5 percent more than does Angel Stadium.

Factoring in that difference, along with his history of difficulties with the Green Monster, Lackey should manage a repeat of his lackluster 11-8 2009 season. In Boston, Lackey should see his career 3.81 ERA and 1.31 WHIP rise to 3.91 and 1.34, respectively.

Similarly, Lackey’s 2009 38.8 RAR and 3.9 WAR should sink to 38.8 and 3.8, respectively.

All that said, setting aside the raw statistics for a moment, Lackey may have a dramatically better career in Boston than those numbers predict.

When analysts discuss Lackey’s intangibles, so called, phrases like “pit bull,” “big Texan” and “fierce competitor” are bandied about. There could be something to such language.

Lackey will be joining a staff with two possible aces already aboard. Against Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, this former Angels’ de facto ace could find himself in the third spot of the Red Sox rotation.

If Lackey and his Abilene stock translate to anything valuable, then a more dominant pitcher could emerge from the heat of competition.

Saving career performances from Weaver, Lackey has been largely uncontested as the Angels’ staff leader. In Boston, Lackey, Beckett and Lester could butt heads. Two Texans and a rising star could create enough competition to take all three to the next level.

Or the statistics could prove immutable.