Chipper Jones' Days as a Fantasy Baseball Starter Are Over

Eric StashinFeb 7, 2010

Third base is not as deep of a position as it once was, there’s just no arguing that fact. One of the reasons is that the players who once starred at the position are just no longer able to produce up to par. Take Chipper Jones for instance…

Well, the truth of the matter is Jones can still produce, even at 37 years old (he turns 38 in April). He’s not the player he once was, no question, but his ability to stay on the field is the biggest problem surrounding him.

Before we get into that, let’s take a look at his production from 2009:

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Bleacher Report1w

Bleacher Report1w

488 At-Bats
.264 Batting Average (129 Hits)
18 Home Runs
71 RBI
80 Runs
Four Stolen Bases
.388 On-Base Percentage
.430 Slugging Percentage
.291 Batting Average on Balls in Play

There’s a lot of negative to note:

It’s the first time he was below 20 HR ever.
It was his lowest average since he hit .248 in 2004.

I could say it was his lowest RBI total, which is true, but he had 72 in ‘05 and 75 in ‘08 (sandwiching years of 86 and 102), so it’s not like he’s been an elite run producer in some time (outside of that one season).

It’s easy to explain the loss of power. While he’s never been a big fly ball hitter (since 2002 his career mark is 36.4 percent and he was at 34.8 percent in ‘09), he has always been able to post an above average HR/FB:

2004—20.3 percent
2005—19.6 percent
2006—19.1 percent
2007—17.6 percent
2008—17.5 percent

While that has been steadily declining, would anyone have expected the big drop to 12.8 percent last season? I have a hard time believing it, even at his age, so a rebound to 20-plus home runs certainly could happen.

As for the average, again, there is reason to believe that there’s a rebound coming. He has a career BABIP of .321. Since 2001, he’s only been under that mark four times:

2003—.319 (close enough)
2004—.251
2005—.302 (still nothing to complain about)
2009—.291

I’m not about to suggest expecting getting to his career mark, but even if he were to return to his 2005 number, he would have hit .273 last season. Considering his strikeout rate was the highest it had been since 2004 (18.2 percent last season), there’s more fuel for the fire of a better average.

It all totals to the following projection:

.281 (118-420)
17 HR
75 RBI
70 R
4 SB
.281 BABIP
.393 OBP
.471 SLG

I know, I just went through a whole big spiel about him reaching 20 HR, then project him at 17. The only reason is the number of at-bats. Since 2004, he’s had over 450 AB just three times so, at his age, it’s tough to project him staying healthy for the entire year. If he were, with the projection I have, he would easily eclipse 20 HR.

The injury risk hanging over him is a huge negative, making him more of a bench option in shallower leagues (though one with tremendous upside potential) and a corner infielder in deeper formats.

What about you? What are your thoughts for Jones in 2010? Would you draft him as your starting 3B?

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Make sure to check out some of our 2010 projections, including: