Can Aubrey Huff Requisition His Groove Back for San Francisco Giants?

San Francisco Giants' GM Brian Sabean has signed first baseman Aubrey Huff to a one-year deal worth $3 million.  This signing will give them a full house of CI options.  Pablo Sandoval is able to play first and third, Mark DeRosa and Juan Uribe have experience at the hot corner, Travis Ishikawa is a keen first baseman, and now the Giants have added former 3B/DH Aubrey Huff at first. 

Huff, 33, had a down 2009 season by his standards.  Between his 430 at-bats in Baltimore and 106 at-bats in Detroit, Aubrey got on base at a .310 clip which was his lowest since his 2001 season in Tampa Bay.  His 2009 also featured a career low .241 batting average to go with 15 home runs and 30 doubles. 

Huff’s power dropped from the 32 home runs he hit in 2008 and I wouldn’t expect him to hit many more than the 15 bombs that he had last season, due to the cavernous right field confines of AT&T Park. 

However, this is actually a good thing because Huff is a superb contact hitter who may not bash his way out of other ballparks with less spacious boundaries anyway.  His average home run went 398.7 feet, with only one topping 420 feet in 2009. 

According to Fangraphs, Huff was a menace in terms of strike zone contact percentage over the last two seasons.  In 2008, he hit 94.1 percent of pitches he swung at in the zone, and in 2009, he remained locked in with a 92.0 contact percentage. 

His move to San Francisco will almost certainly help him to target an impressive batting average.  Looking at some of the recent home/road batting average on balls in play (BABIP) splits on baseball-reference.com for current Giants left-handed hitters should convince you of this fact.

Player: home/away BABIP

Fred Lewis:  .381/.314 in 2009, .418/.306 in 2008, .381/.325 in 2007

Randy Winn:  .269/.342 in 2009, .361/.287 in 2008, .348/.310 in 2007, .293/.258 in 2006

Travis Ishikawa:  .424/.219 in 2009

Nate Schierholtz:  .283/.333 in 2009 (308 PA)

Winn’s 2009 and Schierholtz’ 2009 were the only two seasons in which the lefty hit for a better BABIP away from AT&T, so it isn’t a sure thing that Huff’s batting average will improve.  Nonetheless, the odds are in his favor that he will . 

Huff is no mustang on the base paths, with a zero for six in stolen bases last season and only 25 of 47 attempts being successful in his career.

Huff’s three-year line drive percentage of 16.4 is below what other Giants have produced in recent years, but he puts a lot of balls in play, as evidenced by his 1375 balls in play over the last three years (452, 484, 439). 

I will now use the formula for BABIP to help me estimate Huff’s 2010 batting average and other season stats.

Here’s the formula:  BABIP= Hits- Home runs/ AB- SO- HR+ Sac Flies.

Just to get a sense how this stat works, I’ll plug in the numbers and chug out some of his BABIP’s by hand.

Estimating an away BABIP based on the three previous years [.293 (277 AB), .315 (304 AB), .245 (266 AB)] gives a .286 average BABIP on the road.  Taking into account aging and his big drop in ‘09, I’ll approximate a .278 away BABIP.   Based on the above Giants’ splits, I’ll guess a home BABIP of .350.  Allowing for an even amount of home and away at-bats, we get a .314 overall season BABIP.

I’ll presume 13 season home runs due to AT&T’s sapping of left handed power.  Also, I will deduce a 17.1 strikeout percentage based on Huff’s 2009 uptick in strikeouts and an ability to take a few more pitches per plate appearance.

Fitting this into the formula and estimating six sac flies, we get something like this (where X is amount of 2010 hits):

2010:  X - 13 / 504- 86 – 13 + 6 = X-13/411= .314, therefore X=number of hits = 142, and his batting average would be .282

Guessing an 8.9 walk percentage from his 0.58 BB/K ratio in ’09 (which ranked 26 out of 43 first basemen), his last four years of walk percentage (9.7, 8.0, 8.0, 8.5), and the ability to take a few more pitches, gives us 49 walks for the year.

So here’s my overall projection for Huff:

553 PA, 504 AB, .282 BA .345 OBP, 13 HR, 32 2B, 1 3B, .438 SLG

He may accumulate less plate appearances if Giants’ manager Bruce Bochy decides to give him rest on regular intervals in favor of Travis Ishikawa. This may be a good strategy, as Huff’s stats were incredibly inconsistent in the later part of last season.

April/March- .273/.343/.443, 106 OPS+

May- .264/.333/.500, 120 OPS+

June- .291/.351/.395, 105 OPS+

July- .189/.245/.295, 45 OPS+

August- .191/.273/.270, 44 OPS+

Sept/Oct- .236/.313/.389, 89 OPS+

This was different from previous seasons, when he was a stronger second half player.  In ’08, he hit .332 with 14 home runs, 20 doubles, and a .376 on base percentage in 250 plate appearances after the All-Star break and in ’07 he hit .309, with 9 home runs, 14 doubles, and a .389 on base percentage in 236 plate appearances

Getting onto the field should help to improve Huff’s 2010 stats as he’s been historically better when bringing his mitt into the game.

As DH in 2009:  182 PA, .185/.275/.272, 43 OPS+

As 1B in 2009: 410 PA, .263/.324/.420, 76 OPS+

As DH in 2008:  425 PA, 137 OPS+

As 1B in 2008:  101 PA, 146 OPS+

As DH in 2007:  327 PA, 91 OPS+

As 1B in 2007:  210 PA, 102 OPS+

In terms of value, my prediction of a .783 OPS would place him in the lower half of MLB for first baseman.  However, my triple-slash prediction of .282/.345/.438 doesn’t take into account his unrelenting contributions in the clutch. 

Here’s what happened in previous season:  He had 72 RBI in 2007, 108 RBI in 2008, and 85 RBI in 2009 (which was a down year).

Other clutch stats:

Huff is not prudish with men on base; his 2009 others batted in percentage of 18.4 was fifth among 42 first basemen with a minimum of 150 plate appearances.  This high level of RBI satisfaction was carried on from his 17.2 OBI percentage in 2008.  If he can reach a similarly enticing target this year, then he may lead the team in RBI. 

His 2009 OBI percentage would have been best for San Francisco.  Bengie Molina led the team at 17.1 percent and Pablo Sandoval finished second with 16.3 percent.

Runners in scoring position in 2009:  134 AB, .306/.391/.500 (BA/OBP/SLG)

Three-year RISP:  437 AB, .300/.381/.510

Runners on in 2009: 255 AB, .290/.363/.482

Three-year runners on:  769 AB, .303/.373/.512

Sitting him in favor of Travis Ishikawa’s pristine glove against lefties would improve Huff’s overall statistics.  Huff isn’t terrible against lefties, but Ishikawa’s career .317 on base percentage versus lefties is almost identical to Huff’s three year OBP, although Ishikawa doesn’t compare in slugging (with limited data).

Huff’s three-year left-right splits:

Vs. LHP: .266/.318/.405, 38.8 AB/HR, 18.7 AB/2B

Vs. RHP:  .281/.344/.487, 24.1 AB/HR, 13.9 AB/2B

There are some concerns with his defense as mentioned within ESPN’s Buster Olney’s blog:

But beyond the question of whether Huff was the right investment for this offense, there is the issue of defense. Among first basemen with at least 350 innings in the field in 2009, Huff was 24th in UZR/150 rating (minus-3.5). Not good.

My offensive assessment isn’t taking into account his likely upgrade from getting plate appearances while playing in the field.  Also, his monstrous 2009 flop is weighing down his value from stellar previous seasons.  Finally, if given more time to rest early in the season, he may avoid that second half wall that he ran into last year. 

The Giants needed to add some depth at the corners and this signing will give them veteran leadership for a competitive ballclub, while possibly lighting a fire under Ishikawa, forcing him to work harder and possibly earn some playing time. 

Additionally, buying low on Huff’s bat is a low-risk, high-reward investment.  At one year/$3 million, this doesn’t hinder the Giants future flexibility at first base and adds depth for this season.  Overall, this is a quality signing.