2010 MLB Predictions: The Mixed Bags of Marco Scutaro and Jeremy Hermida

Continuing this series projecting the 2010 performances of new additions to the Red Sox squad, this article focuses on two less-straightforward players.

Both shortstop Marco Scutaro and reserve outfielder Jeremy Hermida should improve the Sox in some areas while diminishing the team in others.

In broad strokes, Scutaro and Hermida severely downgrade the Red Sox defense at their respective positions, but they also upgrade the offense to one degree or another.

Scutaro is a career .265./.337/.384 (AVG/OBP/SLG) hitter whose 2009 season measured a career-high line of .282/.409/.379. The 35-year-old Venezuelan holds a respectable .977 fielding percentage and a less respectable career minus–2.9 UZR/150. In 2009 Scutaro produced a 44.9 RAR and a 4.5 WAR.

It’s difficult to assess Scutaro’s value to the Red Sox in comparison to the shortstop platoon he replaces. Jed Lowrie, Julio Lugo, and Alex Gonzalez formed a thoroughly inadequate triumvirate for the 2009 Sox.

However, accounting for Fenway Park’s more hitter-friendly confines, Scutaro should be able to produce another career line in the range of .283/.360/.410. Assuming the Green Monster giveth more than it taketh away, Scutaro should outperform Jed Lowrie’s RAR by 48.4.

At the same time, Lowrie is actually a much better defender than most may have noticed. (It’s difficult to notice anything other than his 2009 .135 batting average.) Thus, although Scutaro wields a decent glove, his arrival could constitute a minus–29.9 UZR/150 shift at shortstop.

Scutaro’s a mixed bag.

Hermida is, too. Actually, Hermida’s less mixed and more unredeeming.

As a senior in high school, Hermida enjoyed Baseball America’s ranking as the best pure hitter entering the 2002 MLB draft. Unfortunately, Hermida has never reached his full potential.

While Theo Epstein and company surely hope to see the 26-year-old Georgian finally do just that, it’s unlikely he can, even in Fenway.

Hermida is a career .265/.344/.425 hitter who’s coming off a weak 2009 in which he stroked the ball at a .259 clip. While his 2009 fielding percentage of .995 may seem an upside, his minus–11.3 UZR/150 probably paints a more accurate picture of Hermida’s defensive ability.

Effectively replacing Rocco Baldelli as the Red Sox’ fourth outfielder, Hermida will probably excel in only two respects. Compared with Baldelli, Hermida projects to a .008 higher on-base percentage and a 1.6 greater RAR.

That’s Hermida’s lukewarm upside.

The downside? The Marlins actually possess a slightly more hitter-friendly park than do the Red Sox. Hermida should ultimately perform worse at Fenway, so expect him to run up a white-flag line around .257/.333/.411 and be overpaid in salary compared to value by about $2.2 million.

Baldelli probably would have hit about 22 points higher and slugged about 33 points better.

Still, if you’re a fan of RAR, there’s that 1.6 improvement Hermida brings to the team.

At the end of the day, if you consider these two replacements together, the Red Sox have added about 50 RAR but sacrificed about 43 UZR/150.