MLB Fantasy Baseball: Saturday Notes and Keeper Questions

Got an awesome question about keeper leagues and who has more value. Let's get to that and the notes!

Q: In a keeper league, who would you rather have: Jay Bruce or Hunter Pence?

A: Great question!

As this is a keeper league, my answer is different than it would be in a yearly league.
Hunter Pence is definitely a top-30 type outfielder. He has all the tools. Pence hits for average, has the potential to be a 25-home-run outfielder, and will provide around 80 RBI. For this season, he's going to be the more consistent option.

Pence is streaky, just like most hitters, but he's seen the pitching and should have a better idea what to expect as the season moves on. He's getting thrown to differently this year than when he came up last season, and Pence has had a rough time adapting to these changes.

Once he realizes that pitchers are doing their best to get him out by going up or going away, he'll be able to produce more efficiently.

Sitting at .269/10/37 right now, I would anticipate seeing season totals of .285/24/80. Don't let his June struggles steer you away from what he can do over the course of the season, but he's not the better option in a keeper format.

Jay Bruce is a stud in the making. He's hit at every level in the minors, and there's a reason he came out of the box as quickly as he did when he was called up earlier this season. Bruce will be an everyday player in Cincinnati for the next several years.

Yes, he's slowed down. But he wasn't going to hit .600 all season. Bruce has settled at about where I feel he's going to be this season. He's right around .300, he's hit a few home runs, and he's driving guys in. Now, we haven't seen the power displayed since his first week, but that will come.

Bruce has had to face tough pitching from Boston, the Yankees, and Tampa in his last two weeks. Guess what? There are a lot of teams not hitting against those guys right now. He will struggle initially against tougher left-handed pitching, and I wouldn't want to play him against guys like Cole Hamels until he proves he can do it.

But his long-term prospects are far better than Pence's. For this season, I would expect him to be .290/22/80. Since he has four home runs and 17 RBI now, I think he'll be more productive this season than Pence, but it will be in spurts.

In a keeper league, this is a guy who has 30-35 home run potential and could drive in 90-100 runs on a yearly basis. Think Adam Dunn, but less prone to a .250 average and won't strike out 150 times.

Go with Bruce here.

News from Friday's games:

• Jair Jurrjens had his longest outing of the season, going eight innings. Jurrjens is now undefeated in his last eight starts.
• Dana Eveland's last two starts have done well to reward my faith in him. Eveland had a WHIP under 1.00 and gave up just one earned run in seven-and-a-third innings against the Giants. Eveland improved to 2-0 against the Giants this season, and 4-2 at home with a 2.84 ERA.
• Evan Longoria homered again. He hit his 15th of the season, improved his average to .272 overall, and is now hitting .444 in his last seven games. In that seven, he has four home runs and 11 RBI.
• The lack of a decision on Xavier Nady is handcuffing fantasy owners. He isn't in the lineup because he doesn't have full strength in the shoulder. It's nearly been the two weeks that he would have had to sit out with any DL stint. I think he's worth holding on to still because he is one of the better offensive outfielders on the season. I'm not holding my breath on his playing this weekend. In weekly leagues, sit him next week as well. At least he pinch-hit last night.
• Robinson Cano seems to be coming around. He's hitting .333 in his last six games, and has hit two home runs and driven in seven. Cano is a perfect buy-low candidate who did a major part of his damage after the All-Star break last year.
• For everyone that was concerned earlier this season about Derek Jeter, how do you like him now? Jeter is case in point as to why you don't rush to judgement on players that have shown a track record of consistency and are among the elite hitters in baseball.
• Daisuke Matsuzaka made a liar out of me and looked solid in his outing against Houston. He went five innings without allowing a run and should now be back in all lineups.
• Milton Bradley was back last night as the DH. Most of the reason he was not playing this last week was because he would have had to play the outfield. The Rangers are being cautious because of Bradley's injury history, and they should. The good news is that Bradley can be a DH the rest of the way, now that interleague play is coming to an end.

Notes for Saturday:

• I'm not putting much stock in the fact that Brandon Webb has struggled in his last two outings. He's still one of the best in the game and should be started, especially against a team with a collective .217 average against him.
• I don't like Andy Pettitte in the matchup against the Mets. Carlos Delgado owns him, going .333/5/17 in 63 at-bats. Carlos Beltran, David Wright, and even Damion Easley are solid plays.
• Derek Jeter and Hideki Matsui have both handled Johan Santana well over their careers, posting averages well over the .300 mark. Santana has been good in June, and for the most part has had tough-luck losses because of poor offense on the road. You always start him, but I like his chances for a win even more thanks to the Pettitte numbers.
• Jerry Hairston and Brandon Phillips are both 4-9 against Paul Byrd. Byrd's numbers are much better at home than on the road, but he hasn't had much success anywhere in his last seven starts. I wouldn't have him going until he shows a solid outing, which could very well be here. If I'm close in WHIP and ERA for the week though, I wouldn't want to play him.
• I'm pretty sure that anyone here at the Roundtable could get a hit off of Carlos Silva at this point. He's 0-4 in June with an ERA of 5.70, and on the road he's 1-5 with a 6.31 ERA. Even in Petco, he's not a good play.
• Manny Parra's success has virtually all come at home, as his ERA on the road is well over seven. Even with his recent outings, this isn't a gamble worth taking. Minnesota's offense is clicking and could give Parra fits. Especially given that he has a BAA of .369 on the road.
• The Brewers saw a fair amount of Livan Hernandez in the National League, and they enjoyed their time. Mike Cameron, Jason Kendall, and Russell Branyan are the best plays. Cameron's average isn't great, but four of his nine hits against Hernandez have been home runs.
• The Cubs have destroyed Javier Vazquez. Every Cub is worth having in the lineup, but the stars have really been able to shine against him. Lee, Ramirez, Edmonds, and DeRosa are all must-plays. Vazquez's struggles in June (.312 BAA, 6.94 ERA) make it all the more worthwhile.
• Keep any bats from Oakland or San Francisco down, as Tim Lincecum and Justin Duschcherer face off against each other.
• Other pitchers that should see no issues include Kazmir, Hamels, Billingsley, and Verlander. I'd even start Johnny Cueto.
• Spot start calls? Let's go with Garrett Olson, Kyle Davies, and Jon Lester. It's slim pickings though.

Back tomorrow with trade talk and Sunday notes. Check out the full Roundtable blog.