Top 35 Fantasy Baseball Outfielders for 2010: Take Two

Outfield is one of the toughest positions in baseball for which to determine the rankings thanks to “extreme” players.  Where do Adam Dunn and his immense power fall?  What about Ichiro, who has developed into an average machine but is no longer the stolen-base source he once was?  Throw in some injury returnees (Carlos Beltran & Grady Sizemore) and some players on the cusp of superstardom (Justin Upton) and it’s an interesting mix.

Keep in mind that these rankings are still preliminary as I continue to fine-tune my projections and finalize things.  With that said, let’s take a look at how things currently stand:

1. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
2. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays
4. Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox
5. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets
6. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians
7. Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks
8. Jason Bay, Free Agent
9. Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays
10. Matt Holliday, Free Agent
11. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles
12. Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers
13. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros
14. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay Rays
15. Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers
16. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
17. Adam Dunn, Washington Nationals
18. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers
19. Curtis Granderson, New York Yankees
20. Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles Angels
21. Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland Indians
22. Jayson Werth, Philadelphia Phillies
23. Carlos Quentin, Chicago White Sox
24. Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers
25. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies
26. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Rays
27. Hunter Pence, Houston Astros
28. Raul Ibanez, Philadelphia Phillies
29. Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles
30. Torii Hunter, Los Angeles Angels
31. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates
32. Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds
33. Nate McLouth, Atlanta Braves
34. Denard Span, Minnesota Twins
35. Jason Kubel, Minnesota Twins

Thoughts:

• It’s easy to simply write-off Beltran, claiming that he’s a huge injury risk after losing a significant portion of the 2009 season.  He had over 500 AB every season from 2001-2008, only twice having less than 554 (and including 663 AB back in 1999).  I wouldn’t completely downgrade him because of one injury-riddled year, especially when he was able to return in September (and hit .305 in 17 games).
• Manny Ramirez is one of the best hitters in the game, though he hit just .255 in the second half and will turn 38 years old during the season.  There’s a lot of risk there, especially with the 50-game suspension looming over him and the fact that you have to make sure you have a viable replacement on the bench.
• Don’t suddenly push Curtis Granderson well up your draft board simply because he is on the Yankees, though with Johnny Damon (who is outside the rankings until he signs, as leaving Yankees Stadium will hurt his production) out of the picture he could slot into the No. 2 spot in the order.  That means increased runs to go along with power and a better average (as I discussed at the time of the trade, which you can read by clicking here ).  He is surely a No. 2 outfielder, but don’t reach too high for him.
• The potential value of Matt Holliday & Jason Bay continues to be difficult to pinpoint since they remain unsigned.  Once they find a team, the perspective might change.
• Is Jason Kubel a viable outfielder in all formats?  If he ever learned how to hit lefties, he’d easily be a No. 2 option.  Against righties he hit .322 with 26 HR in just 366 AB.  While I’d expect a bit of a regression there, he is still worth considering as a third option, especially in the middle of an order that includes Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.
• Where should Adam Dunn fit in the rankings?  He’s a pure, power hitter, but the chances that he produces a usable average are unlikely.  I know he hit .267 last season, but it came with a BABIP of .326 (his career mark is .294).  Look for a regression there, but when you can count on 38-plus home runs, how can you not like him?
• It’s easy to point to the ballpark to help explain Ibanez’s 34-HR explosion, but he actually just hit 13 HR at home.  Don’t look for him to be able to repeat that type of production in 2010.
• Ben Zobrist does get a little bump in value thanks to his flexibility, so keep that in mind when considering his ranking.

What are your thoughts on the early rankings?  Who is too high?  Who is too low?  Who was omitted that shouldn’t have been?

Previous Early Rankings:

• Catchers
• First Baseman
• Second Baseman
• Third Baseman
• Shortstops
• Starting Pitchers
• Closers

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