Market for Pitchers Way Down

This off-season is way down for starters compared to last off-season, which wasn’t a good one either.  John Lackey is now reported to have signed with the Red Sox for $82.5 million, exactly what A. J. Burnett got last year.  Lackey is demonstrably better than Burnett was at the moment they signed their deals, and Lackey was the best pitcher available this year.

Today, Jason Marquis signed with the Nationals for two years at about $15 million.  Marquis is a better bet than Derek Lowe was when the Braves gave Lowe four years and $60 million.

Over the last three seasons (2007-2009), Marquis’ road ERA was lower than Lowe’s, 4.13 to 4.54.  A big part of the reason Lowe’s ERAs were so good for the Dodgers is that Chavez Ravine is still a tough place to hit.  Once Lowe moved to Atlanta, which due to the heat and the elevation is a good place to hit, his ERA was likely to go up substantially, which, in fact, it did.

Also, and as importantly, Marquis will be only 31 in 2010, while Lowe was 36 in 2009.

If the first reported numbers are correct, the Marquis signing is a great one for the Nats, at least in comparison to Lowe’s signing with the Braves.  The Marquis signing is also much better than the Brewers’ three-year $29.75 M deal with Randy Wolf, at least based on the same criteria (road ERA and age).  Randy Wolf’s road ERA the last three years is 4.33, and he’ll be 33 next year.

If Marquis couldn’t do any better than the contract he got, and I can’t see many other good reasons why he’d decide to play for the dead-last Nats, then anyone who hasn’t signed a contract yet better lower his expectations.

On that note, Ben Sheets reportedly wants $12 million for 2010, and Pedro Martinez wants to pitch the whole year for more than what Brad Penny got ($7.5 million).  I don’t see them reaching those numbers now.

Rumors have it that the Yankees are considering trading for overpaid starters like the Red’s Aaron Harang and Derek Lowe.  If I were the Yankees, I’d much rather have Aaron Harang than Lowe.  Harang is five years younger, and although he’s had some arm problems the last two years, his ratios are still terrific.

Also, Harang has one year and a guaranteed $14.25 million left on his current contract.  I assume the Reds will be forced to pick up some of that in exchange for a not-quite-first-tier Yankee prospect (my guess would be as much as $3 or $4 million).    Lowe is obviously a much bigger financial commitment to take on, almost no matter how much money the Braves send along.