2007 World Series Preview: Red Sox Over Rockies

I’ve read national reporters who say the Red Sox could sweep the World Series.

I live in Colorado, where fans tell me the Rockies could do the same.

They're all wrong.

The Rockies and Red Sox are very close in ability, confidence, and determination. These teams will battle for six or seven games.

The Series hinges on the performance of Boston’s second- and third-game starters, Curt Schilling and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Either game could be a must-win for the Red Sox. They're the pitchers at the crux.

If Boston wins Game One with Josh Beckett on the mound against Jeff Francis, Schilling has to chill Colorado’s desire for a split. If Boston loses Game One, Schilling will be asked to get it tied or face going into Coors Field down by two games.

If the Sox win Game One, and the Rox win Game Two, the Rockies lead the Series by benefit of circumstance.

The teams are close at just about every position...

Catcher

Yorvit Torrealba is good behind the plate, and must be calling great games with the streak Rockies pitchers are on. He gets big hits, has medium power, is confident. He can’t throw.

Jason Varitek's hitting is similar to Torrealba’s. He can’t throw either, so this should be interesting if Boston or Colorado uses their speed (Boston’s at the bottom of the order, Colorado’s at the top) in the Series.

Advantage: Too close to call 

 
First base

Let’s face it, Todd Helton will be a force before it’s over. I expect a good Series from a good player.

Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz: Boston is so much better with Youkilis at first than Ortiz that a play at first base may effect an outcome. But you have to play Big Papi in Denver, six to seven innings, depending on the score and when he’s coming up. This is tough for Boston. Youkilis has emerged as a money player who has provided big hits and plays in the field.

Advantage: Colorado at Coors and Boston at Fenway Park, because they will have Ortiz’s bat and Youkilis full-time.

Second base

Kazuo Matsui has been fantastic. He has been what they hoped for in New York. His defense is superb, on-base skills OK, and it seems like when he’s on he scores. He also can help the hitters on the Rockies with tips about Dice-K, with whom he played in Japan.

Dustin Pedroia will play solidly and probably come up with some good hits. He has been excellent in the field and is very good going to his right. A gritty, effective player.

Advantage: Colorado, slightly

 
Shortstop

Troy Tulowitzki is the best shortstop in the playoffs, never mind the World Series. He had 130 more chances than the next shortstop in the National League. In one week last summer he hit three homers after the eighth inning to put Colorado ahead, and they lost all three. He set a record for homers for rookie shortstops. He’s sure handed and his throws are whipped along the field and are true.

Boston fans hold their breath whenever Julio Lugo is in a play. And he can’t hit. An occasional big, late-inning hit may be his saving grace.

Advantage: Colorado

 
Third base

It’s close. Garrett Atkins has come up big in big games. Witness his homer that was called a double in Game 163 against San Diego. Suddenly he is playing good defense, but he can be a butcher.

Mike Lowell is a pro in the field and for most at-bats. He does what is needed.

Advantage: Boston

 
Left field

Neither left fielder is as bad in the field as he is made out to be. Matt Holliday is the better fielder, but Manny Ramirez makes some good plays and some good throws. But Coors Field could expose him, badly. Hitting-wise, in seven games who do you take? Neither would hurt, right?

Advantage: Even

 
Center field

Willie Taveras against Coco Crisp and Jacoby Ellsbury is close again. Taveras is a great center fielder with a good arm, Crisp a great center fielder with a mediocre arm. Ellsbury looks like he’s just very good at everything he does.

Advantage: Again, even

 
Right field

Brad Hawpe, Rockies: has been excellent down the stretch, during this remarkable run. Scary good at times.

J.D. Drew had an even worse season than skeptical Boston fans worried about. Does Bobby Kielty start in right against Francis? Youkilis in Denver in Game 5?

Advantage: Colorado

 
Designated hitter

Ortiz is a stud. The Rockies have a lefty starting Games 1 and 5 and lefties in the pen. But it’s hard to doubt this guy when the games go past midnight.

Colorado could start Ryan Spilborghs or Seth Smith, both tough outs and better than most NL DH’s.

Advantage: Boston 

 
Starting pitching

Games 1 & 5: It’s hard to bet against Beckett, but Francis is good, and has been hardened to adversity pitching in Denver.

Games 2 & 6: Schilling is another big game pitcher. Even when he had stuff and speed, he also relied on guile and guts. Ubaldo Jimenez throws strikes at 74 mph and 98 mph. He reminds me of Fausto Carmona. Boston hopes he’s as effective at Fenway as Carmona was.

Games 3 & 7: Dice-K threw his soul out there for five innings in Game 7 against Cleveland. He’ll pitch in Denver to a lineup that’s strong, but without a DH. He may pitch Game 7, which will make the World Games he’s pitched in look like B-squad games on the back field on March 17. But he already pitched and won one Game 7, right?  Josh Fogg is asked to keep it close and instead he has excelled when he had to. But Boston could get him out of there early and use up the Rockies’ pen.

Game 4: John Lester has overcome higher mountains than the ones behind Coors. But would you want him in there if you trailed two games to one? Rockies will counter with Aaron Cook, who also is a big question mark due to missing so much time with injury.

Advantage: Boston, but Schilling and Matsuzaka must live up to their reputations.

Bullpen

The bullpens are both good and, in the Rockies’ case, very well-rested. The Sox have just one lefty out there, but Lester could pitch in, too. Colorado has its ex-closer, Brian Fuentes, pitching the eighth inning. Boston has the amazing Hideki Okajima, who gave up nine earned runs all year to teams not named Yankees.

Advantage: Even

 
Closer

The teams’ closers are remarkable. Jonathan Papelbon is intimidating. And more than a little nuts. Manny Corpas has been a savior. When Fuentes faltered, if Corpas hadn’t answered the call, and dominantly so, the Rockies would not be here.

Advantage: Whichever team has the most ninth-inning leads.

Manager

Before this season I thought Clint Hurdle was a bozo. Well, now he’s not and he seems to get better as the Rockies play on. Terry Francona is the best manager in modern Boston baseball history.

Advantage: Boston 

 
My prediction: Red Sox in six games.