Cliff Lee in 2010

One thing that Mariners’ fans should be excited about as 2010 approaches is not just that they now have Cliff Lee, but that Cliff Lee is seriously pissed off.

Lee is understandably upset that the Phillies decided they would rather have Roy Halladay even after the late-season and post-season performances that Lee gave the Phils this past year.  One thing that you want to have on your team is a great player with a chip on his shoulder, who wants to prove that somebody made a mistake.  Think Frank Robinson with the Orioles in 1966 after the Reds’ GM traded him away saying he was an “old 30″.

Lee is genuinely a great pitcher, and if he’s right in 2010, he should have a big, big year.

Ah, but there’s the rub!  Questions remain as to Lee’s arm health in 2010.  Lee pitched 202 innings in 2005 and 200.2 innings in 2006 and had significant arm problems in 2007.  He pitched 223.1 innings in 2008 and 231.2 innings in 2009, plus the post-season.  Will he have arm problems again in 2009?

The beauty of trying to predict future performance in baseball is that there are an awful lot of variables and an awful lot of dumb luck.  It’s a lot like handicapping horse-racing.  Predicting any one player’s performance year-to-year is extremely difficult, if not impossible.

It’s somewhat easier to predict players over the course of their careers based on past performance, but even there, there is a lot of luck.  I’m reminded of former Giant Jack Clark, who was an enormously talented hitter, but ended up having his best season as Giant in 1978 at age 22.

Clark was en route to having a fine season in 1980, but the Mets’ Pat Zachary broke his hand on an inside pitch in August.  In 1984, Clark, who was a notoriously slow starter, was hitting an astounding (at the time) .320 two months into the season, when he torn his hamstring and missed the rest of the year.

Clark is largely remembered for his career after his time as a Giant, when injuries prevented him from completing great seasons.  During his time as a Giant, however, his health was excellent except for those two years when he was having his best seasons.  Clark would be remembered differently today if not for those two injuries.

Getting back to Cliff Lee, I’m hopeful for 2010.  This is not entirely rational — part of it is that Lee is a great pitcher, and I’d like to see him have a big year for the M’s.  However, he will be 31 in 2010, and as a more mature pitcher, perhaps his arm is better able to handle rigors of the last two seasons.

All we can really do is wait and see what happens in 2010.  I hope it’s exciting, whatever happens.