Fantasy Baseball Impact Of Early Off-Season Moves

With many players already making waves by signing deals or being sent packing from one city to another, it is time for this space to do a little review of what has happened and what it means for fantasy owners.

Edwin Jackson - The Tigers certainly seemed to take the opportunity to sell high on the pitcher. Jackson was one of the more pleasant surprises of fantasy baseball in 2009, going from undrafted to a number two or three starter in many formats. While he struggled some down the stretch with his command, he certainly was going to be on the radar in the late-middle rounds of drafts in 2010 had he stayed with Detroit.

His move to the NL West could actually help his value. The division is littered with parks that favor pitchers more than hitters, and he will not be facing a DH. Keep this in mind, but note that Jackson's monthly ERA rose every month from April on. While he started with a 2.25 ERA in April, he had a September ERA of 5.08 in six starts.

Not only this, he also saw his innings workload increase by 31. While he is too old to fall under the Verducci Effect principle, it was the first time in his career that he cracked 200 innings, and only his third full season as a starter.

From a drafting perspective, keep him around the 160-175 mark and you will get decent return on your money. He should perform better in the NL, but any owner expecting a repeat of last season may be disappointed after the All-Star break. Jackson is not a staff anchor, and he will not perform that way.

Curtis Granderson - Obviously, Granderson is the biggest piece to the puzzle in terms of overall name value. The working theory here was that, regardless of team, Granderson was going to rebound from last season. His only major disappointment was in average, and that is due to come back with some better luck and improved BABIP.

In New York, Granderson could see power similar to what was seen out of Johnny Damon last season. Granderson can attack the bigger gaps, but likely does not end up with the same volume of triples that he was able to muster in Detroit. Since leagues do not generally count that stat, there will be little hurting him.

Expect 25 home runs this season, with a majority coming at home. His average will return to .280, and he will still steal 20-25 bases. Basically, he is automatic across most categories.

Yes, he will struggle against lefties and maybe he could be more patient, but there are few players that produce across such a wide array of categories.

Last season, he was drafted near pick 60 in ESPN leagues. Coming off what some might term as a disappointing 2009, he likely would have slipped some in drafts, perhaps by as much as 20 selections in some mixed leagues.

Now, though, he should likely be drafted in around the same spot as 2009. Given that he likely rebounded, that would be good value for the outfielder.

Max Scherzer - Ah, the enigma. His stats actually do not reflect how well he pitched overall. Scherzer had a rough May and August, but in between he showed some fantastic stuff. Arizona was relatively cautious with his innings last season, and the Tigers will likely do the same this year.

Still, he has ability. The difference will come in the types of lineups he will face. Adding a DH is very different than throwing to a pitcher.

There is also some concern regarding the Verducci Effect with Scherzer. Remember, his role changed several times in 2008 with Arizona, and there is not standard way to weigh or evaluate the effect minor league innings have on a player's performance the following season. He does represent a risk, but it is not likely as great as some might think.

The problem that Knox Bardeen, and others have pointed out is that he is likely going to be drafted too high to provide a decent return on the investment. At just 9-11 last year with a 4.12 ERA, he was a decidedly average pitcher by the final numbers, and certainly had some consistency issues.

He started 30 times last season and only completed the seventh inning on six occasions. Red flags should be going up early in drafts. He pitched much better on the road, especially within his division, posting an ERA of 3.74 in 14 starts. That is nearly 0.75 runs better than his home ERA.

Now, is he a viable piece of the long-term future of Detroit? Very likely. Should you be drafting him before round 16? Probably not. His value is slightly hurt by the move to Detroit and the American League, and his injury risk is higher because of his pitching increases (minor or major) from 2008 to 2009. Beware.

Austin Jackson - You could argue that he likely ends up the best player in the entire deal. Jackson is a young outfielder that produced a .300 average in AAA last season. He has been considered the best offensive prospect in the Yankee organization, and he was likely going to be a starter in left field for them this season.

In New York, he would have been in the spotlight, but he also would have found himself in a lineup where he could have hid and produced at his own rate. In Detroit, he may not be so lucky.

Still, he has the opportunity to be a starter there as well. He likely breaks camp with the team, as he has nothing left to prove in the minors. His power has not developed as much as some would like, but that can come in time.

In fantasy, he provides the most value in keeper formats or in AL-only leagues. Deep mixed leagues will see him drafted as well, but he should be kept towards the final rounds of your drafts.

Consider him a fifth outfielder at this point that could provide extra value. Watch him through the spring and see how he is used in Detroit. They got him for a reason, and he will be a big piece to there success come 2011.

Ivan Rodriguez/Jesus Flores - These two are being grouped together because the impact of one creates an equal and opposite impact on the other. Rodriguez's signing with the Nationals made little sense in the grand scheme, specifically at the dollars he was given.

Rodriguez had made it clear that he wanted to start and did not necessarily plan on being a mentor to a younger catcher.

Flores suffers in this exchange. After being injured last season, it was expected that Flores would step in to the starting role in 2010. Now, that is up in the air. At best, he is in a timeshare. At worse, he is a backup. In either case, he provides little value in even NL-only leagues because of the playing time issue present at this point.

The bet here is that he ends up catching about 40 percent of the games. Not enough to give you numbers worth owning. Where it is a two-year deal, he likely has just about cost himself time in 2011 as well. Nothing good about this for the younger catcher.

As far as Rodriguez, he is far from the player that he was when he was "naturally" winning MVP awards and smacking 40 home runs. He likely will struggle as a full-time catcher, but could give owners some power upside.

Upside should be defined as 15 or so home runs and 60-70 RBI. Is that outstanding? No, but you could live with it if you had to in deeper leagues.

Chone Figgins - There are people that are much higher on him than you will find here. He comes across as a two-category player. Figgins steals bases and hits for average. Not a bad thing, for certain.

He definitely provides more value than one B.J. Upton right now (simply because Upton has forgotten how to hit). Still, does that warrant a huge change in value from a move within the division? Not really.

Figgins is going to hit right near .300 and steal 40-plus bases. Those are good things to have on your team. Just know that there is going to be a need to make up for the loss of power, especially at a corner position that provides a majority of the home runs seen in fantasy.

He played just two games in the outfield and one at second base, meaning he loses eligibility there to start 2010.

When it comes to third base, there are players that you should be targeting ahead of him unless you need steals. Figgins is a middle round selection, no better than 110-125. He just does not give owners enough at a premier power position.

Only twice since 2004 has he driven in 60 or more runs and not once has he hit more than ten home runs.

It is not his game, but at third base there are too many other options available early in drafts to use him. Look at him to fill a utility spot.