More Deals

I’m going to hold off on providing any opinions as to the three-team Roy Halladay/Cliff Lee trade until I’m certain who all the participants are going to be.  My gut reaction so far, though, is what are the Phillies thinking? My ultimate opinion will depend on how many prospects the Phils end up getting in return and who those prospects are compared to the ones they’re give up.

Hideki Matsui signed a one-year deal with the Angels for a reported $6.5 million.  A good low-risk move by the Angels, which should help them at DH, compared to what they got there in 2009.  Matsui had an .876 OPS last year and has a career OPS in MLB of .852.  There’s a lot to like about that, especially on a one-year deal.

I’m surprised Matsui couldn’t get anyone to give him more than a one-year deal after the last season and career he had for the Yankees.  It makes me think that if he has a poor or injury-plagued 2010 campaign, he may go back to Japan to play in 2011.

Vladimir Guerrero had a great career as an Angel and was worth every penny of the $77 million he received over six seasons.  It was time for the Angels to move on, however, given how old Guerrero seemed to become in 2009.

Vlad’s 2009 campaign leaves me at a loss to predict whether he’ll bounce back toward his career norms in 2010 or whether he really has lost something for good.  He’ll be 35 next season, and he could certainly have one good year or even two left.  However, his .334 on-base percentage was by far the worst of his career (he drew only 19 walks in 383 ABs), and that’s not a number that tends to get worse with age the way that batting average or stolen base counts do.

I also wonder what he’ll end up signing his next contract for.  He’s a major star, but he really had very little value in 2009 as a DH with an OPS under .800 (he finished the year at .794).

I could see the Giants having some interest in Vlad to fill their left field hole.  He is a right-handed slugger, and Giants GM Brian Sabean sure loves his over-the-hill stars.

However, a real question remains whether or not Vlad can still play the field.  He played only two games in the field in all of 2009, which sure makes one think his outfield defense has gotten really bad.  Strange for a player who was once a great all-around athlete.  One wonders if he really came clean on just how much older he is than what he claimed when he signed his first professional contract.

Vlad really isn’t worth any more than the deal Matsui just got, and the Giants could do worse than signing him on similar terms, but only if he wouldn’t be a butcher in left field.  A one-year deal for $6 million would be a tough pill to swallow, though, for a player who made $15 million last year and is used to being considered a major star.  Obviously, though, he can’t get any more than the best offer his agent receives.

The Red Sox apparently also just signed Mike Cameron to a two-year deal for a reported $15.5 million.  mlbtraderumors.com cites a report from someone that right now the Red Sox intend to move Cameron to left field and keep Jacoby Ellsbury in CF in 2010, but I just can’t believe that’s true.

Mike Cameron’s value, particularly at his age and on a contract this big, is in centerfield.  Cameron’s OPS numbers the last three seasons were .759, .808 and .794, not nearly good enough for a leftfielder.  More importantly, fangraphs says that Cameron was still one of baseball’s best defensive centerfielders in 2009, as he has been throughout his career, while fangraphs rates Ellsbury as the single worst defensive centerfielder in all of MLB in 2009 (at least among starters).

The Red Sox are a Money Ball team and signing Cameron to a deal like this was a Money Ball move.  I can’t believe that Ellsbury will start even half as many games in center in 2010 as Cameron does if both players are healthy.  When you take into account that left field at Fenway is the smallest left field area in baseball, playing one of the games’ best ball-hawks there makes even less sense.