Rafael Soriano Accepts Arbitration: Can Braves Trade Him?

Among the always-minute percentage of free agents offered arbitration who actually accept, there are rarely surprises. In general, players accept arbitration offers only once it becomes clear that there is little to no market for their services, or when they hope to increase their value coming off of a down season.

That is why it caught many off-guard on Sunday, when Braves relief pitcher Rafael Soriano began hinting he might accept the Braves' offer of arbitration, and why it was even more surprising (if not unexpected) when he actually did accept late Monday night.

Fresh off his best season to date (102 strikeouts, 27 walks in 75 2/3 innings, and 27 saves after taking over the full-time closer's role), Soriano drew attention from the Yankees, Orioles, Astros, Phillies and Cubs—at least. Apparently, however, he and his agent decided that none of those teams were prepared to pay him the $7-8 million he stands to make in arbitration.

Here it gets interesting, however, because neither are the Braves. Atlanta General Manager Frank Wren had clearly expected both Soriano and left-handed reliever Mike Gonzalez to decline arbitration and seek employment elsewhere, as evidenced by the Braves' signings of Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito to one-year deals late last week. Gonzalez did decline, and the Braves no longer need to worry about him. Soriano, however, remains very much a problem.

This problem manifests itself in at least two ways.

First, Atlanta desperately needs a power bat to add to its lineup, but with Soriano's arbitration money aboard, the club has relatively little financial flexibility.

Second, and just as important, Wren cannot trade Soriano before June 15, unless Soriano gives his permission. That complicates the process to the point of a potentially bitter impasse, with the two sides standing at odds through the first two-and-a-half months, until the Braves can ship him out with impunity.

If Wren can convince Soriano to accept a deal, however, he will find a market full of suitors. Presumably, any team that had been willing to consider parting with two draft picks to get the Type-A free agent will remain in the bidding at the expense of two mid-level prospects instead. The 2010 money might eliminate the Cubs and Astros from the Soriano sweepstakes, but it's a good bet the other teams will remain in the thick of things over the next few weeks. 

In need of a closer and with prospects to deal, the Orioles look like a favorite. Philadelphia could get involved, but would probably prefer to fill the hole in the back of its bullpen via free agency, thereby preserving a farm system that got somewhat picked over in last summer's Cliff Lee trade.

If the Yankees dive in, it will be a sign that many others have interest, and if the Yankees actually land Soriano, it will be a sign that Wren doesn't care much what he gets in return.

The dilemma facing the Braves organization is highly intriguing, and could even become dramatic over the coming months.

For now, it is enough to say that this situation will clearly bear watching over the remainder of the winter meetings, and however far beyond that it may extend.