Teams That Can And Teams That Can't

The Red Sox signed pitcher Scott Atchison to a one year contract for a guaranteed $430,000.  This is a classic MoneyBall move.  Atchison was a highly under-appreciated pitcher, who posted an MLB career 4.10 ERA with 70 Ks and 25 walks in 68 IP, but had to go to Japan in order to make some real money.

Apparently, after two years in Japan, Atchison, a Texas boy, was desperate to return to America, so desperate that he walked away from far more money in Japan to come back the U.S.  He had a terrific 1.70 ERA for the Hanshin Tigers last year with 81 Ks and 20 BBs in 90 IP.

The thing to remember is that the Japanese major leagues are better than AAA baseball, so a pitcher with a 1.70 ERA and peripheral numbers to match is likely to be successful in MLB.  The only real knock on Atchison is that he will be 34 next year.  However, the Red Sox are risking very little for a player who could help them a lot in middle relief next year.

Meanwhile, the Nationals signed the aging and fading Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez to a 2-year deal for a guaranteed $6 million.  That’s a lot in this market, and in my mind not a good risk.

The last three years Pudge had OPS numbers of .714, 714 and .663.  If Pudge has OPS numbers of .714 or better the next two seasons and he stays healthy, the Nats will get their money’s worth.  The problem is, of course, that the odds of Pudge at age 38 and 39 having two seasons like that after his performance the last three years is pretty slim.

The Nats are probably figuring that having Pudge’s veteran presence around will help with their young pitching staff.  However, the Nats would be better served by having a catcher that can still hit.

The problem for a team like the Nats is that, as bad as they are, they have to wildly overpay for free agents.  In the present case, this means paying for how great Pudge Rodriguez once was, rather than how good he will be over the life of the contract.  Why else would Pudge be willing to play for a team that realistically has no chance for a post-season appearance during the life of the contract?

This is why bad, small market teams need to build around young players they develop themselves.  Once a team built around young players is good enough to win 85 games, the free agents will come around at reasonable (for free agents) prices, because they can see the team is on the ascent and may only be a veteran or two away from being a legitimate post-season threat.

A team as bad as the Nats can sign an Adam Dunn here and a Pudge Rodriguez there, and not get any better because they don’t have a core of young players getting better as a group each season.  The Nats will likely be better in 2010 than they were last year, but signing Pudge isn’t likely to make them a winning team in either 2010 or 2011.