A's Get Jake Fox from the Cubs

The Jack Cust Era in Oakland appears to be over, as the A’s have just acquired Jake Fox, the player most likely to be the next Jack Cust.  Cust was beloved by all MoneyBall fans, because he was way undervalued when the A’s pulled him out of minor league obscurity and turned him briefly into a star.

Cust had put up some enormous minor league power and OPS numbers, but he wasn’t very good in the field and he struck out an ungodly amount.  He had value, though, which the A’s alone saw, and they got some good years out of him.

The writing was on the wall for Cust, however.  After a terrific .912 OPS in 2007, his OPS fell to .851 in 2008 and .773 this past season.  His salary had increased to $2.8 million, and as an arbitration eligible player, he would likely have gotten at least $4.5 million as a result of the arbitration process.

Meanwhile, any MoneyBall fan will love Jake Fox for the same reasons they loved Jack Cust.  Fox has a career .885 minor league OPS and .762 career major league OPS through age 26.  Last year, he posted a ridiculous 1.336 OPS during two months in the AAA Pacific Coast League before getting called up the Cubs, where he posted a respectable .779 OPS as a major leaguer.

Fox will be 27 in 2010 and is a great candidate for a breakout season.  He’s also cheap, which means a lot to the financially down-and-out A’s.

The A’s also required 2Bman Aaron Miles in the trade, but Miles doesn’t look to have much left.  He had a strong .753 OPS in 2008, but has a career OPS of .678 and was absolutely terrible for the Cubs last year.  He’ll be 33 next season, and I’ll be surprised if he contributes much to help the A’s win.

The three minor leaguers the A’s gave up, pitchers Jeff Gray and Ronny Morla, and corner outfielder/1Bman Matt Spencer, aren’t great, but they aren’t terrible either.  Gray will be 28 next year and has a career 4.35 ERA in 31 major league innings pitched with only 5 walks and 23 strikeouts.  He was terrific at AAA Sacramento last year, posting a 1.54 ERA with 16 saves in 37 relief appearances.

The thing I like about the Cubs obtaining Gray is that Gray doesn’t have fantastic stuff, but he has tremendous control and doesn’t give up many homeruns (19 in 401.2 professional innings).  Wrigley is a tough place to pitch, but I think groundball pitchers who throw strikes have a relative advantage there.  Every pitcher is going to give up hits and runs in that park, but it you keep your walks and opponent homeruns down, you can have success there.

Ronny Morla will be 22 next year and has had little success so far in the low minors, posting a 7-15 record with a 4.52 ERA.  He’s got a good arm however, with 202 Ks and 74 walks allowed in 197 minor league innings pitched.  He’s a long-shot, but he could get better in a hurry.

Matt Spencer will be 24 next year, and it doesn’t look like he hits enough for a corner outfielder/1Bman to have much of a major league career unless he gets better in a hurry.  He had an .808 OPS in AA in 2009.  Like Morla, I’d rate his chances of a successful major league career at less than 50%, but he’s at least got a shot.