Bill Bavasi Fired: Seattle Mariners Face Franchise-Changing Decisions

Bill Bavasi has finally been fired. I recently wrote a column calling for his head, and now that it has rolled, phase two of the Mariners front office re-tooling process begins.

The Mariners brass, led by Chuck Armstrong and Howard Lincoln, will define the success of the Mariners for the next decade with their decisions this offseason.

The aforementioned higher-ups have promised a “new plan”, and they have assured the fans that “nothing is off the table.” While those are certainly promising statements, they don’t preclude failure.

The duo has been duly criticized and questioned about their primary objective. Before David Locke left KJR-AM to be the Sonics' radio play-by-play guy, he used to talk about the 90/90/3-model seemingly employed by the Mariners' front office (90 wins/$90 million payroll/3 million in annual attendance.)

The Mariners have seemingly been more concerned about “butts in seats” and “the bottom line” than wins since the opening of Safeco Field.

Mariners' fans, by virtue of the vicinity of large companies like Microsoft and Boeing, which have many well-educated employees, are beginning to beg and plead for a sabermetrician.  

More importantly, a sabermetrician, given time to re-shape the roster, will help the team maintain a consistent level of success. That alone is the most baffling part of the Lincoln/Armstrong duo’s reluctance to convert.

While marketable players like Ichiro may help to an extent in all three categories, adding to the win column is a self-serving venture.  

Success breeds interest. There is no doubting that, and a sabermetrician will facilitate success more consistently, less expensively, and ultimately for a longer period of time, considering that most sabermetrician GMs are in their mid-late 30s.  

The inherent problem is that for old-school baseball minds like those of Armstrong and Lincoln, sabermetrics are the industry-equivalent to outsourcing labor and automated machinery.

A sabermetrician will alienate and decrease the value of tenured scouts, if only by osmosis. A sabermetrician will further thin the line between the loyalty of the front office to players, fans to players, and players to fans, as rosters of teams run by sabermetricians are inherently fluid.

The manager’s role on a “sabermetric roster” is greatly reduced. Sabermetrics essentially get rid of the “chess game” associated with baseball. Stealing bases, hit-and-runs, and sacrifice bunts are essentially thrown out the window.

Perhaps that has been the greatest downfall of the Oakland A’s, who despite their better-than-moderate success in the 2000s, have never been able to traverse the mountain that is a berth in the World Series.

Art Howe and Ken Macha were excessively discouraged from “small ball”, and the personnel on their roster were unequipped to execute it if necessary.

With John McLaren, the Mariners have an interesting contrast to the two essential figureheads for success previously employed by the A’s.

The writers at USSMariner.com, a respected Mariners blog, seem to prefer the Cleveland Indians' Assistant GM Chris Antonetti. Antonetti has turned down jobs around the league, and appears to be in place to take over the Indian’s GM job when Mark Shapiro steps down.

I personally prefer Paul DePodesta. DePodesta was given the opportunity to lead the Dodgers a few years ago, and as he began to shape his roster, the team struggled.

However, in his short time in Los Angeles, DePodesta drafted Matt Kemp, James Loney, and Russell Martin. He signed J.D. Drew, Jeff Kent, Derek Lowe, and traded Paul Lo Duca, Guillermo Mota, and Juan Encarnacion for Brad Penny, Hee-Seop Choi, and Bill Murphy.

DePodesta also let Adrian Beltre walk after a near MVP season, facilitating the emergence of Andy LaRoche, who was considered by many a very good prospect at third base before injuring his thumb.

The part that makes the most sense, from all sides, is that Lincoln and Armstrong are able to pass their ineptness off as something other than a complete failure.

DePodesta is one of the most recognizable “Sabermetrician GM’s” on the market today. He’s got experience and a track record as a general manager, and he gives the fans what they want, a general manager who doesn’t make his personnel decisions as though it is 1965.