Braves Sign Billy Wagner

The Braves signed Billy Wagner today to a contract which guarantees the 38 year old left-handed closer $7.25 million ($7 million in salary in 2010, a $250,000 buy-out, and $6.5 million in 2011 guaranteed if Wagner finishes 50 games in 2010).  It’s a deal the the Braves may regret for years to come.

The reason I say so is that the Red Sox offered Wagner arbitration and will therefore likely receive the Braves’ first round pick in the 2010 amatuer draft, the 20th pick overall.

Here is a list of the best players drafted with the 20th pick of the draft between 1980 and 2004:  Chad Cordero (2003); Denard Span (2002); C. C. Sabathia (1998); Adam Kennedy (1997); Eric Milton (1996); Torii Hunter (1993); Pokey Reese (1991); Mike Mussina (1990); and Gregg Jefferies (1985).

In other words, the Braves gave up at least a 36% chance of receiving six years of control over a player with future major league performance somewhere between Pokey Reese and C. C. Sabathia for one year of a 38 year old closer, who may or may not have much left in the tank and who’s costing the Braves market price in salary.

The percentages don’t favor the Braves at all, and they may be even worse if one considers that eight of the nine players on my list were drafted in the last 15 years of the survey period (1990-2004).  If teams are getting better at drafting players in the second half of the first round who eventually become major league stars (and my limited research suggests that major teams have gotten better if one compares the Drafts from 1965 to 1984 with those from 1985 to 2004), then teams really need to think twice before signing free agents like Wagner to the kind of deal the Braves just gave him.

I looked at this issue last year when the Dodgers signed Orlando Hudson to a one-year contract (on much more favorable terms for the team than what Wagner just got) and gave up the 17th pick in the 2009 Draft to the Diamondbacks.  My conclusion was that the Dodgers would probably have been wiser to give Hudson a two year contract, particularly given how little they were able to sign Hudson for.  After Hudson’s fine 2009 campaign in Dodger Blue, I was probably right.

The Diamondbacks ultimately selected A. J. Pollack with the 17th pick they received from the Dodgers.  No way to know what he’ll end up doing.  However, at age 21 playing 63 games in the Class A Midwest League this past season, he posted an unimpressive .695 OPS.  He may one of the majority of late first round picks who doesn’t become a major league star, but it’s worth remembering that I’m talking about playing the percentages here and the chance to acquire a really great young player for the cost of a signing bonus.