MLB Fantasy Baseball: Father's Day Trade Talk

It's Father's Day, so all of you out there make sure to at least pick up the phone if you can. Quick post this morning and no notes. I'll be hitting the links and off the reservation this afternoon. Back on Monday, but, to tie you over, check out a question received involving a trade for John Lackey and Erik Bedard.

Q: Who gets the better end of this deal: John Lackey and Joey Votto for Erik Bedard and Matt Holliday?

A: I actually think this is a pretty good trade. The issue is, you can only judge based on what has been done. But it's not entirely cut and dried.

Giving up Holliday means you better have the depth in the outfield to make up for his offensive loss. He's been a solid second-half player and gets to play half of his games in the great Colorado air. If I had to guess, once he gets his timing back, you're looking at a guy that will produce .315/35/110 type numbers the rest of the way.

Joey Votto isn't going to give you that, by any stretch. Votto's a solid player and in a keeper situation has more value than in a yearly league. He could hit 25-30 home runs and drive in 90 and still hit .275, but the risk of his ability to continue this pace for a full year is much greater than Holliday's. And his manager is Dusty Baker, notorious for not trusting younger players.

Yes, last season Bedard was considered a contender for the Cy Young. But that has been far from the case this year. He's been miserable on the road, posting an ERA over five and a WHIP better than 1.50.

Also, for a lefty, Bedard has struggled getting left-handed hitters out. That's generally not a good sign. For the rest of the season, given the choice between the two, I'd take Lackey in a heartbeat. After his DL stint, he's done nothing but prove why he is one of the top pitchers in the game.

If I could make this deal Holliday for Lackey, I would like it much better. I wouldn't want to include Bedard because of the potential for greatness and regression to the mean possibilities (Bedard can't REALLY be this bad).

I wouldn't want to give up what basically amounts to a pair of top-three round draft picks for a rookie first baseman, even when an elite pitcher is involved.

That's the issue with rookies: some will just burn out as a result of the long season. These guys aren't used to playing that long. See if the changes would work, because that really makes for a more even deal.

Hope this helps.

No notes today. Check yesterday's post for some quick Sunday hitters. Back tomorrow with a weekend review.

Check out the full Roundtable blog.