Hollywood Halladay: Risky Business For The Blue Jays and The Dodgers

The Toronto Blue Jays finished once again among the bottom tier of the American League. The in-house squabbles that became apparent as the campaign came to a close only hinted at the underlying problems.

  Roy Halladay no longer wants to be the face of the organization he has proudly foisted beyond the team’s talents; he has one year left with a hefty price tag of just over $15 million, and he could also threaten, like every year, to win 20 and have 10 complete games, and over 240 innings pitched for a team that can not catch up to his potential. Trading him now would give the Jays a tangible return, but the rumours circulating have the new Jays GM searching for perhaps too much.  The Halladay situation is not one that is unique to just the Blue Jays, however in conjunction with other obstacles the Jays have a major challenge.

  Aside from Halladay’s usual mastery (17-10 2.27 E.R.A. 10 CG 208 SO) there were some bright spots last season; Adam Lind DH (.305 35 HR 114 RBI ) and Aaron Hill 2B (.286 36 108) were awarded Silver Slugger Awards, and in limited at-bats Jose Bautista UT (336 AB .235 13 40) proved to be a very valuable bench asset. Free agent Marco Scutaro SS (.282 12 60) has built a reliable reputation during his Toronto tenure, but is his possible return enough to prove exciting?

  There are far too many question marks to put this team in any encouraging category. If the lineup was populated with highly touted prospects a case could be made for a rebuilding phase, but Travis Snider has made less of an impact than expected.  Lyle Overbay  1B (.265 16 64) has one year left on his contract but has not reached the encouraging numbers he did in his initial Blue Jays season (.312 22 92).  Moving Scott Rolen was the best move for Scott Rolen, saving his knees from the Rogers Centre turf, but the addition of  Edwin Encarnacion 3B (293 AB .225 13 39 67 SO ) is a question mark still. Encarnacion may have had trouble adapting to the AL, but pitching is pitching and it is necessary to hit that pitching on a consistent basis. Free agent Rod Barajas was a good fit last year, but what will he provide without strong competition for his position.

 The greatest fortune to befall the Jays was Rios’ pickup on waivers by the White Sox and his large looming contract, the Vernon Wells contract will prove harder to unburden, as he continues to undergo surgeries and get older and lose respect as a possible clubhouse malcontent due to his apparent disagreements with manager Cito Gaston.

  If you take Halladay out of the equation, what does the 1-5 look like?  Richmond, Cecil, Romero, Marcum, Talllet. Hardly the most imposing names to come into Baseball lore.

  There is little on the roster to spark interest that would improve the Jays when opening day comes around unless Halladay is part of the package, which puts the Jays hurler in the driver’s seat as can veto a trade in his favour.

  The most attractive possibility is working Halladay, Overbay and DH Randy Ruiz into a starting pitcher, two position players and a prospect. This happens to be tricky to accomplish when few teams can add $22 million in contract without also jettisoning some in the process. The task is to then look at the teams which are already in a position to: win; take on contract; and part with commodities.  The Dodgers are the team on the verge with attractive positional replacements for the Jays. A package containing Clayton Kershaw LP age 21 (8-8 2.79 185 SO ), James Loney  1B ( .281 13 90 ) and knuckler Charlie Haeger RP, age 26 ( 1-1 3.32 15 SO 6gms). A situation where both teams take a risk can open up the possibilities.  Loney’s numbers are similar to those of Overbay but given a more coveted spot in the line-up Loney may find  more value in Toronto. Kershaw and Haeger would provide Toronto with two arms while losing just one, and Haeger may offer some excitement as the first knuckler to blow through Toronto since Tom Candiotti. Either way the loss of Halladay is the greater fortune of his new team and that is how any deal should be sold, especially when asking for a youngster like Kershaw.

  With the potential free agent market slim on 3^rd basemen, a tandem of Bautista and Encarnacion is most likely the direction the club will take. However, if Pedro Feliz 3B (.266 12 82) is affordable he may find a home in T.O. playing the lion share of games if Encarnacion does not pan out, freeing up Bautista to play LF instead.  Re-signing if possible both Scutaro and McDonald would be considered a strong move in that McDonald is one of the best defensively in the game, and Scutaro is the least likely of the free agent crop to have a significant drop from his last campaign.

 The Blue Jays have to know that any highly touted player will likely be offered more by the Red Sox and Yankees in their immediate division, not to mention the chance of joining an already winning lineup must make any Jays offers look silly in comparison.

  With very few options, the trade of Halladay seems not only inevitable but necessary in order for the Jays to thrive. The business of losing ticket-selling commodities like Halladay is hard to swallow, but the addition of more wins to the   Blue Jays coffers is ultimately the prize.