MLB Fantasy Baseball: Trade Talk with Cliff Lee and Sunday Notes

Before we get to the notes, let's check in on a trade question in a keeper league.

Q: In a keeper league, I was offered Joba Chamberlain in exchange for Cliff Lee. Thoughts?

A: Well, the key here, I think, is that this is a keeper league situation.

With that in mind, I make this deal. Chamberlain is going to be moved to the rotation full-time going forward. Regardless of his short-term problems and pitch count limits, he's going to be there for the duration. You likely won't get much out of him this year until he truly gets his strength and stamina to the point where he can go seven innings consistently. But that wouldn't hold me back from looking to the future. He has the potential to be a number two or three type pitcher. He's not an ace, but he's not a number five guy either. Chamberlain has a plus-fastball and solid off-speed pitches that will generate positive strikeout numbers. Add to that, he's pitching for a lineup that will score seven runs a game.

Lee, however, is much more erratic. He's given up four or more runs in three of his last five outings. I think this is "regression to the mean." He wasn't going to spend the season with an ERA under one. Even in his best season, that number was 3.79. Not bad, but not outstanding. It's about the league average. He has won 18 games before, but he's more often been in the fourteen range. He's a guy one year removed from being demoted at the end of the season.

I think this is a sell-high situation. With a keeper league, you're getting solid value in return and Lee has given no indication he can consistently be an 18-game winner. I make the move.

Notes for Sunday's Games:

• Brett Myers continues to struggle on the road and faces a St. Louis lineup that has been hitting well. The Cardinals have hit .351 against him at Busch Stadium since 2005. Albert Pujols has the best career record against him and will be on the bench, but I wouldn't want to put Myers on the mound in a close match up.
• Greg Maddux on the road is a rough option. I'd make sure to have any and all Indians in my lineup. Maddux allows a BAA (batting average against) of .315 away from Petco. That's 100 points worse than at home.
• Josh Beckett fared pretty well against the Reds when he was in the NL. Beckett has held the Reds to a .192 batting average. He's also been better on the road as opposed to Fenway, where he holds opponents to a .232 BAA.
• Daniel Cabrera hasn't been sharp in three of his last four outings, twice allowing six runs. Cabrera posts an ERA over five at home. I would make sure that my Pirates were in the lineup. But Paul Maholm hasn't been any better on the road. I'd look for an offensive explosion and grab some borderline players on both teams (Luke Scott, Aubrey Huff, Danny Bautista).
• Micah Owings hasn't been productive in three straight outings, but he faces a Royals team he should be able to control. He makes a decent start in deeper leagues or if you need to steal a few strikeouts to cap the week.
• Kevin Millwood has been rocked by the Mets in the past. Start all of them against the Rangers pitcher, except Fernando Tatis, who hits .080 against him in 25 at-bats.
• Tim Redding is a borderline play at home, but makes a decent option on the road in deeper leagues. He holds opponents to a .173 average on the road. Add to that, there's never a good reason to start Jarrod Washburn, given that his ERA at home is 6.27. Redding makes a solid option for a quick win.
• Jesse Litsch is still only 37 percent owned across all leagues, yet he is one of the top fantasy pitchers to this point in the year. He faces a good Chicago lineup that will be without Soriano and has posted a 2.97 ERA at home in six games. Solid option tomorrow.
• Need spot starts tomorrow? Go with Scott Baker, Litsch, Dana Eveland, and Jorge Campillo, in that order.

Check out the full Roundtable blog.