Predictions for NBA's Top 2022 Restricted Free Agents
Every year, a new group of restricted free agents hits the market with the potential to alter the offseason for multiple teams.
If a big-name member of the class signs an offer sheet with one team, the incumbent can wait two days before waiting to match, which can cost the pursuers precious opportunities to go after other targets.
This summer, multiple players in that situation are talented enough to change the fortunes of whatever team lands them.
Though past production and projection systems like FiveThirtyEight's help to determine who's at the top of the list, it's mostly a subjective endeavor. No one can truly know what a player will do in the future.
With the aforementioned criteria and considerations for size, age and how a player will fit in an increasingly positionless NBA, here are the top five restricted free agents and predictions for their offseasons.
5. Mo Bamba
1 of 5
Prediction: Signs elsewhere, and Orlando declines to match.
The Orlando Magic's frontcourt was relatively crowded even before they won the lottery. And with the three main contenders for the No. 1 pick (Jabari Smith, Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero) all being 6'10" and up, that corps is about to get even deeper.
The odd man out might be three-and-D center Mo Bamba.
According to Bleacher Report's Jake Fischer, "The idea of incorporating Smith or Holmgren into Orlando's rebuild has sparked an expectation among league personnel that Bamba, a restricted free agent this summer, is likely to depart the franchise, especially after being considered a trade candidate prior to February's trade deadline."
After three years of relative ineffectiveness, Bamba had something of a breakout in 2021-22, when he averaged 10.6 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.7 blocks and 1.5 threes in 25.7 minutes while shooting 38.1 percent from three.
That combination of rim protection on one end and range on the other should be intriguing to a number of suitors. Plenty of teams are eager to spread the floor on offense, but then they struggle to defend. With Bamba, that sacrifice doesn't necessarily have to be made.
Someone will sign him for that potential, and Orlando will let him walk.
4. Collin Sexton
2 of 5
Prediction: Cleveland re-signs.
There are only five teams projected to have cap space this summer (the Magic, Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers), and they all have plenty of usage headed the way of players already on the roster.
Spending decent money on Collin Sexton, fresh off a torn meniscus recovery, doesn't make much sense for them. And signing an offer sheet for some kind of cap exception with another team doesn't make a ton of sense for Sexton (the Cleveland Cavaliers would almost certainly just match such a deal).
Cleveland simply re-signing Sexton outright seems like the likeliest scenario.
His injury kept him out of the Cavs' season-long breakout, but there's reason to believe he can figure out how to coexist in a backcourt that includes Darius Garland, Caris LeVert and Isaac Okoro.
Starting him alongside Garland could be asking for trouble defensively, but he could find success as a sparkplug off the bench.
The Cavs ranked in the bottom half of the league in bench scoring in 2021-22, and Sexton is one of just seven players in league history to average at least 20 points and 1.5 threes through an age-22 season.
3. Anfernee Simons
3 of 5
Prediction: Portland re-signs.
When you adjust for pace and playing time, Anfernee Simons' numbers over the last two seasons are strikingly similar to Sexton's. The former is a bit more efficient, while the latter provides more volume as a scorer.
So, it stands to reason that Simons might run into similar problems on the open market. With cap space at a premium, smaller offense-first guards might not generate a ton of interest. And though the Portland Trail Blazers just went through six-plus seasons of questions about an undersized backcourt, they might have to essentially run it back.
"My goal would be to be proactive," Blazers general manager Joe Cronin said of Simons' restricted free agency. "We have a good relationship with Anfernee and his agency. I would hope that once we're allowed to start talking we can come to an agreement that makes sense for both sides."
Of course, Simons is a little over seven years younger than CJ McCollum. He's more vertically explosive too. It's not a total redux. And after his breakout following Damian Lillard's injury last season, there's reason to be excited about bringing him back.
In 27 games after Lillard left the rotation, Simons averaged 23.4 points, 5.8 assists and 4.4 threes while shooting 42.3 percent from three.
2. Deandre Ayton
4 of 5
Prediction: Sign-and-trade.
After Deandre Ayton played an integral part in the Phoenix Suns' run to the 2021 Finals, they failed to extend him in the ensuing offseason. That didn't lead to much drama during a dominant 2021-22 regular season, but things felt tense in a hurry after the Dallas Mavericks dismissed Phoenix in this year's second round.
After bickering with coach Monty Williams, Ayton was benched for much of the blowout that ended Phoenix's season. And other centers on the roster put up roughly the same kind of numbers when they were on the floor with Chris Paul.
That might make the Suns balk at matching a max offer sheet for Ayton, but they aren't likely to give him up for nothing.
ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski discussed the possibility of a sign-and-trade, which seems like a real possibility if Phoenix doesn't want to pony up for the deal Ayton is after. That would also pave the way for more suitors to get involved in a potential Ayton sweepstakes.
Of course, such a move for the Suns would be an act of immense trust in 37-year-old Chris Paul. He's not going to play forever, and losing Ayton this summer probably diminishes the outlook of the post-CP3 era.
1. Miles Bridges
5 of 5
Prediction: Signs elsewhere, and Charlotte matches.
The Charlotte Hornets reportedly offered Miles Bridges a four-year, $60 million extension last offseason. And they're surely regretting not upping that a bit now.
Over the course of the season, Bridges became the most intriguing restricted free agent in the class, with career highs in points (20.2), rebounds (7.0), assists (3.8) and threes (1.9) per game.
Being much more malleable within positionless lineups is another reason he leapfrogged Ayton, who was minus-25 in a series against the floor-spreading Mavericks.
As a forward who can play at least those two positions, and might even be able to log some small-ball 5 minutes, Bridges should hold immense value going forward. And Charlotte's going to have to pay for it.
He may not get a max, but some team is going to give him an offer sheet designed to make the Hornets think twice. They can't afford to let him walk, though.
Charlotte will be operating over the cap this summer. If it doesn't retain Bridges with his Bird rights, there's really no way to replace him. And breaking up the duo of him and LaMelo Ball would feel like borderline front-office malpractice.
