6 Prospects Sliding Down 2022 NBA Draft Boards
Some NBA prospects used March and April to move up boards, which means some are moving down.
Six names stand out as the biggest fallers who'll need to change scouts' and executives' minds during workouts.
However, a few haven't announced whether they'll stay in school or declare. It's possible that after receiving feedback, they choose to return to college and improve their stock for 2023.
Patrick Baldwin Jr. (Milwaukee, SF/PF, Freshman)
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Projection in latest mock draft: No. 25
There is still optimism that Patrick Baldwin Jr. will be a better pro than college player. But as an ankle injury forced him to sit through most of February and March (after shooting 34.4 percent from the floor), other prospects strengthened their cases and rose above the former top recruit.
He's now viewed as more of a backup plan in the late first or second round, as opposed to a plan-A target for lottery teams. He's lost trust from scouts in his ability to create separation, other than into low-percentage step-backs. Baldwin shot 2-of-16 out of isolation, 5-of-15 on post-ups and 4-of-12 off balls screens through 11 games.
The eye test on his jumper (for a 6'9" forward) says to stay calm over the freshman's 26.6 percent three-point mark. But shot-making has always been his main selling point, and he didn't sell it well at all with Milwaukee, where he also had a nightmare time finishing inside the arc against low-level competition.
To Baldwin's credit, he was forced to generate offense without much help, while opposing defenses knew they had one player to game-plan for.
Still, scouts are having a tough time ignoring his lack of burst for beating his man and converting at the rim (50.0 percent). He didn't show much finishing polish (2-of-10 on floaters) to compensate for that lack of explosion.
Baldwin can help himself in workouts, where his picturesque jumper figures to look more persuasive than it did during the season.
Jaden Hardy (G League Ignite, SG, 2002)
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Projection in latest mock draft: No. 30
Jaden Hardy's stock has taken a significant hit since the October days of being a projected top-five pick. Scouts have focused more on the negatives than his 19.5 points in 25 G League games.
For a player whose identity is built around scoring, scouts question his explosiveness and verticality for creating separation inside the arc (42.4 percent 2PT). He doesn't need much space around the perimeter, and he gets into his step-back comfortably. But getting himself high-percentage looks and free-throw attempts (2.7 FTA in 32.6 minutes) is the concern.
His decision-making and feel consistently come up as issues. He turned scouts off with his tendency for predetermining and settling on hero jumpers. Meanwhile, shooting was supposed to be Hardy's signature skill. He finished at 30.9 percent from three, so teams will closely monitor his shot during workouts.
The other worry I've heard questions whether he offers any secondary strengths for a high-usage scorer. Can he provide playmaking value (89 assists to 84 turnovers)? Defensively, he felt heavy-footed and slow. He looked easy to shake, beat or knock off balance, and there were too many lowlights of poor effort.
Hardy could be in danger of sliding into the second round, as teams have a tough timing picturing a fit for an isolation-heavy guard who doesn't defend.
JD Davison (Alabama, PG, Freshman)
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Projection in latest mock draft: No. 39
Bounce might not be enough to keep JD Davison from sliding into the second round. Too many questions have been raised about his shooting, decision-making and defense.
Aside from the highlights above the rim, Davison impressed most with some of his passes. But overall, for a guard who needs to be used mostly on the ball, there are too many concerns about his offensive projection after a whopping 34.3 percent of his pick-and-roll ball-handling possessions ended in a turnover and he shot 9-of-36 off the dribble.
Davison grades as one of the worst ball-screen players (29th percentile) in the draft class. Without a pull-up game or an off-ball skill set (31st percentile on spot-ups), it's tough to picture an easy fit or upside.
His projected value in the NBA should revolve around playmaking for teammates (6.7 assists per 40 minutes) and an ability to make athletic plays around the basket. He still possesses bench-spark potential. But he's viewed as an option in the 30s or 40s after scouts lost faith in his scoring and he made frequent mistakes.
Johnny Juzang (UCLA, SF, Sophomore)
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Projection in latest mock draft: No. 59
Interest in Johnny Juzang peaked during last year's NCAA tournament. It's almost gone. Over UCLA's last 16 games, Juzang shot 42.6 percent inside the arc and 33.3 percent from three.
The concerns about his quickness and explosion look too glaring for teams to brush off. In 30 games, the 6'7" forward converted just 31 half-court shots at the rim (49.2 percent), attempted 79 free throws and blocked four shots.
He also took nearly two fewer threes per 40 minutes than last year, which hasn't helped scouts picture a more fitting NBA player.
Invited to the 2021 NBA combine, Juzang returned to UCLA presumably without any assurance about where he'd be drafted. He didn't do enough this season to answer scouts' questions.
Caleb Houstan (Michigan, SF, Freshman)
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Projection in latest mock draft: Undrafted/back to school
Caleb Houstan's disappointing season came to an end as he went scoreless against Tennessee and shot 2-of-6 in Michigan's loss to Villanova.
Despite an attractive archetype as a 6'8" shooter (60 3PTM, 35.5 percent), scouts haven't given him a pass for being 19 years old. They don't see enough upside for the patience he'll require.
Mostly a one-dimensional forward, Houstan showed minimal shot-making versatility, hitting eight of 37 attempts off screens and five of 23 pull-ups.
Aside from a few nice ball-screen passes, he struggled in creation situations (5-of-19 pick-and-roll ball-handling, zero isolation FGs). And without much explosion, he graded as one of the nation's worst finishers at the rim (44.8 percent).
As the season went on, it became evident that he doesn't possess the off-the-dribble skills or athleticism (eight blocks in 1,088 minutes) to excite NBA teams.
Seen as a possible top-10 pick entering the year after averaging 17.0 points at the U19 World Cup, Houstan will hope to just hear his name called if he keeps it in the draft.
Peyton Watson (UCLA, SF, Freshman)
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Projection in latest mock draft: Undrafted
"There is no way Peyton Watson leaves UCLA for the draft, right?" asked one NBA scout before the freshman announced he's leaving UCLA for the draft.
While a school holds a prospect back in some instances, Watson feels like too daunting of a long-term project for NBA teams to use a pick on.
He started the season viewed as a potential lottery talent, even after his lack of offensive polish was exposed during the U19 World Cup (34.4 percent FG). He had some encouraging defensive sequences for UCLA, but as a scorer, Watson was too raw for coach Mick Cronin to play regular minutes. Scouts also aren't prepared to vouch for a wing with his glaring limitations as a creator and shooter.
There was some hope he'd return to UCLA for a bigger role, especially if Juzang and Jaime Jaquez Jr. leave. In all likelihood, Watson goes undrafted this June and spends the next few seasons trying to build back his stock in the G League.
Stats courtesy of Synergy Sports, Sports Reference
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