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Bowl Projections 2021: Predictions for CFP Championship and Biggest Matchups
December 4, 2021Bowl Projections 2021: Predictions for CFP Championship and Biggest Matchups
It's been a wild and wildly entertaining college football season thus far. As we head into Championship Week, plenty is left to be decided. However, the College Football Playoff (CFP) Committee seems close to setting the field for the 2021-22 season.
Once again, fans will be treated to a four-team playoff—a format that may exist for the foreseeable future. A 12-team playoff has been proposed, but movement toward playoff expansion continues to stall. Another conference took place on Wednesday, but no decision was reached on when or how to expand the collegiate postseason.
"We aren't done," Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby said, per Ross Dellenger of Sports Illustrated. "I wish we were. There's no way to dance around it: We are working our way through hard issues and we disagree."
Expansion wasn't going to occur this year, of course, and while it's fun to think about how a 12-team field would shape up this December, teams are vying for those top four spots.
How might the 2022 College Football Playoffs look? Here, we'll dive into some predictions for the field and for some of the biggest non-playoff bowl games. First, though, let's examine the biggest games from this weekend's schedule.
Championship Week: Notable Games for Saturday, December 4
Big-12 Championship Game
No. 9 Baylor vs. No. 5 Oklahoma State
12 p.m. ET on ABC
American Athletic Conference Championship Game
No. 21 Houston vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
4 p.m. ET on ABC
SEC Championship Game
No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 1 Georgia
4 p.m. ET on CBS
ACC Championship Game
No. 16 Wake Forest vs. No. 15 Pittsburgh
8 p.m. ET on ABC
Big Ten Championship Game
No. 13 Iowa vs. No. 2 Michigan
8 p.m. ET on Fox
College Football Playoff Rankings, Top 10
No. 1 Georgia
No. 2 Michigan
No. 3 Alabama
No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 5 Oklahoma State
No. 6 Notre Dame
No. 7 Ohio State
No. 8 Mississippi
No. 9 Baylor
No. 10 Oregon
This is the top 10 according to the CFP Committee. However, Saturday's slate of games is likely to change the field fairly dramatically. The SEC matchup between Georgia and Alabama is probably the most important contest, though the AAC, Big Ten and Pac-12 games will also be important.
Should Alabama upset Georgia, we'll likely see both SEC competitors in the final four. If the underdog doesn't deliver, however, Alabama will likely drop out of the playoff field for only the second time since the format was adopted.
Cincinnati and Michigan will likely have to win to stay in, but there's still a chance that the Bearcats could drop if they don't pass the fabled "eye test" against Houston. It would be difficult to keep out an undefeated Cincinnati team, but if Alabama wins and stays, Oklahoma State or even Notre Dame could conceivably jump Cincinnati.
The committee will make its final decisions on Sunday, December 5. The selection show is set to air at noon ET and can be viewed on ESPN and the ESPN app.
Bolw Game Projections
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Thursday, December 30 on ESPN
Projected Matchup: Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Saturday, January 1 on ESPN
Projected Matchup: Baylor vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl
Saturday, January 1 on ESPN
Projected Matchup: Utah vs. Ohio State
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
Saturday, January 1 on ESPN
Projected Matchup: Notre Dame vs. Michigan State
We're largely assuming that the high seeds take care of business in their respective championship games this weekend, though that ultimately may not be the case. Upsets could lead to some surprises in the non-playoff bowl race.
The ACC title game, for example, is going to be an intriguing affair, even if it has no real bearing on the CFP picture. Pittsburgh and Wake Forest both fall outside of the top 10, but the winner is likely to take on 10-2 Mississippi in the first of the New Year's Six.
I'm backing Pitt here, though it's likely to be a back-and-forth thriller. Ultimately, rising quarterback and Heisman candidate Kenny Pickett should do enough to earn a matchup with Ole Miss in late December.
Should Oklahoma State and Georgia take care of business in their respective matchups, a two-loss Alabama team is likely to fall out of the top four and face Baylor in the Sugar Bowl. I'd expect to see Ohio State in the Rose Bowl unless Michigan falls in the Big Ten title game. We could see a two-loss Wolverines squad fall out of the top four.
Utah notched a 38-10 victory over Oregon in the Pac-12 title game and should face the Buckeyes next.
If Michigan wins, Michigan State and Notre Dame feels like the Fiesta Bowl matchup. There's a slight chance that Notre Dame could sneak into the final four, but it would likely take a lot of losing from the teams ranked higher for that to happen.
CFP Predictions
Capital One Orange Bowl
Friday, December 31 on ESPN
Projected Matchup: No. 3 Oklahoma State vs. No. 2 Michigan
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Friday, December 31 on ESPN
Projected Matchup: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
CFP National Championship
Monday, January 10 on ESPN
Projected Matchup: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 2 Michigan
If Georgia, Michigan, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State all win on Saturday, the CFP Committee will have a decision to make. Would a two-loss Alabama team edge out a one-loss Oklahoma State team? It feels unlikely, but it's not impossible.
The picture will be equally cloudy if Alabama knocks off Georgia. My guess is that in this scenario, Michigan would move to No. 1 with a win. Alabama and Georgia would likely sit at No. 2 and No. 3 in some form or another, while a tough decision would loom at No. 4.
Would the committee keep out the undefeated Bearcats to push Oklahoma State into the picture? Might Notre Dame creep in with a Cowboys loss? It's entirely possible, and a lot will hinge on (whether fair or not) how much the committee values a program's draw and quality of wins.
A close loss to Houston could be problematic for Cincinnati. The Bearcats played tight games against Navy and Tulsa. An unconvincing win would at least open the door for a fall to No. 5. If Cincinnati wins big, though, it'll be tough for the committee to keep Cincinnati out.
The Bearcats are the closest we've come to a true Cinderella story in the CFP era. The committee should want to at least give the impression that you don't have to be a Power 5 powerhouse to reach the final four. Even with an Alabama loss, though, I'd be willing to bet that Cincinnati stays at No. 4 and is indeed leapfrogged by Oklahoma State.
I'm not going out on a limb by predicting Georgia, Michigan, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State to all win on Saturday and to make up the final four, but that's what I see unfolding.