Bowl Projections 2021: CFP Predictions Ahead of Saturday's Key Games
Regardless of how it shakes out, Rivalry Week is going to have a big impact on the final College Football Playoff rankings.
Specifically, two games are going to have a direct result in the race to be in the top four. The Game between Ohio State and Michigan will serve as a playoff eliminator. The winner will have the inside track on getting its ticket punched at Indianapolis in the Big Ten title game.
The loser is going to be left hoping the committee puts it in a New Year's Six bowl.
The Big 12 features a similar elimination game. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will meet for their traditional Bedlam matchup with much more on the line than usual.
Oklahoma State is already headed to the Big 12 Championship Game. However, a win over the Sooners would put it in the conference title game with a strong case to vie for the No. 4 spot in the playoffs should it emerge victorious.
Before these games kick off, here's what the playoff matchups could look like based on projected results the rest of the way, as well as predictions for games that will impact the playoff race.
New Year's Six Bowl Projections
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Orange Bowl (CFP Semifinal): No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State
Cotton Bowl (CFP Semifinal): No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Cincinnati
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. Utah
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Baylor
Peach Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh
Fiesta Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma
Ohio State Denies Michigan... Again
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There are several big games on Saturday, but none bigger than The Game between Michigan and Ohio State.
The rivalry is one of the most storied in college football, but truth be told, it's been a lopsided one over the last 20 years. Going all the way back to 2001, the Buckeyes are 16-2 against Michigan, with another win that was vacated in 2010.
The current winning streak for the Buckeyes goes back to 2011 when the Maize and Blue won 40-34 on the strength of five touchdowns from Denard Robinson. That was a long time ago.
This year, Michigan walks in with one of its best teams in recent memory, but it still might not be enough to beat a red-hot Ohio State team. C.J. Stroud has the Heisman within his grasp after a six-touchdown performance in the team's 56-7 rout of Michigan State.
The Buckeyes and Wolverines have six common opponents on the schedule this year. Ohio State has beaten each of them by a larger margin than their northern counterparts.
Until Michigan can actually prove it can get that coveted rivalry win, the Buckeyes are the pick.
Oklahoma State Snaps Bedlam Skid
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Michigan isn't the only team hoping to reverse the trend in an end-of-season rivalry game. The Oklahoma State Cowboys have not had much fun when it comes to the Bedlam game against the Oklahoma Sooners.
They haven't won the game since 2014. Coincidentally, that's the last time the Sooners didn't win the Big 12.
The Sooners are 16-2 over the last 18 meetings in this game. But this Oklahoma State team is a cut above most of the teams that Mike Gundy has fielded in recent years. The Pokes come into the game with a legitimately elite defense.
The Big 12 might not have a reputation for playing lights out defensively, but Gundy's squad is proving that stereotype wrong. They are second in defensive efficiency according to ESPN's FPI metric and are allowing just 4.3 yards per play, that's good for third in the nation behind only Wisconsin and Georgia.
That's not good news for the Sooners. Quarterback Caleb Williams has completed less than 50 percent of his passes, and he has just one touchdown and three interceptions over the last two games.
All the ingredients are there for Oklahoma State to score a big rivalry win and build a strong case to be included in the playoff.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Alabama Sets Stage for Georgia with Dominant Iron Bowl
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The Iron Bowl rounds out a trio of classic rivalries that could have major playoff implications. Unlike the first two discussed here, the results have been much closer in the Auburn-Alabama matchup.
The two schools have alternated wins over the last four games. That includes the 2017 edition when Auburn played spoiler to then No. 1 Alabama and nearly knocked the Tide out of the playoffs.
Recent history aside, this year's Auburn Tigers isn't like the 2017 version. That team was ranked sixth in the country and looking to make a New Year's Six bowl (which it did).
This year's Auburn team has lost three straight, just lost starting quarterback Bo Nix for the rest of the season and is projected to be headed to the Liberty Bowl.
That doesn't sound like a team that is ready to welcome Bryce Young, Will Anderson and Jameson Williams to Jordan-Hare ready to pull the upset.
That's a team that is ready to be done. The Tide, on the other hand, have a showdown with Georgia on the horizon and something to prove to the College Football Playoff committee. With few chances left to impress, Nick Saban and Co. are likely looking to pour it on their rival.
They'll likely get their way, too.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
