Like It or Not, Michigan Is a Legitimate Threat to the College Football Playoff

Jim Harbaugh is supposed to lose this game. That's what the blueprint says. That's how things have gone. 

That's become the expectation at Michigan, unfair or not.

Against elite competition in the Big Ten, that's what his teams have done. It's a seemingly endless cycle that has pushed the head coach's employment and the fan bases' patience to the brink, and we witnessed it once again a few weeks ago against Michigan State.

Michigan plays hard and loses dramatically. And once it ends, the commentary quickly shifts from the individual loss to Harbaugh's inability to meet the enormous expectations that have chased him since he touched down in Ann Arbor.

On Saturday against Penn State, there were traces of this exact script. For a while, it felt like another crippling loss to add to the collection—a trophy case that has added far too much hardware in recent years. 

The offense chugged along, struggling to sustain drives or threaten much of anything outside of a few moments. The defense, which has played largely excellent since Harbaugh arrived, was again up for the challenge. 

Michigan even blew a lead, which has become an unfortunate trademark of late, and that allowed familiar doubt to creep back in. 

But Michigan then went off script. The offense found a big play—albeit with a tight end, which feels very Harbaugh. And the team that has demonstrated an inability to conquer close games found a way to do so on the road in a difficult environment.

Quarterback Cade McNamara made enough plays, throwing for three touchdowns. The defense allowed only 332 yards of offense. The ingredients to win a game were all in place—as has been the case in plenty of instances.

The only difference? Harbaugh won. 

Michigan won. 

What could have become a haunting loss morphed into a marquee win.

Tony Ding/Associated Press

Michigan's 21-17 victory over Penn State didn't drastically alter the expectations of a team. Those have been there all along. But in beating the Nittany Lions and breaking free of a sequence that has been largely negative, the Wolverines are in a position to crush the narrative once and for all. 

As the College Football Playoff race becomes more cluttered, Michigan finds itself squarely in the mix.

That conversation took new life this week when the selection committee ranked Michigan over Michigan State, the only team the Wolverines have lost to this year, this past week.

Michigan was ranked No. 6; Michigan State No. 7. Considering the loss occurred just two weeks before, the moment was significant.

While the displeasure surrounding these rankings was heard the moment they were revealed, one thing is certain: Michigan is very much in control of its own fate as it enters the home stretch of the regular season.

Unlike others, Michigan doesn't have to worry about what the committee will say. It doesn’t need losses or resume boosts or outside help. It simply needs to keep winning. 

If the Wolverines win out, they're in the playoff. The only real debate at the point would be where the team will be ranked. That's a situation this fan base would gladly accept. 

The elephant in the room, of course, is the team at the end of the schedule. In order to reach the playoff, Michigan still needs to get past Ohio State. (Well, it must first get past Maryland next week, although let’s leap forward.) 

Of all the teams that have tortured Harbaugh, no team has been more difficult to conquer than the Buckeyes. In fact, to date, Harbaugh has yet to do so.

Michigan has not beat rival Ohio State since 2011—years before Harbaugh arrived. In the past six matchups, only one of those games has been decided by less than a touchdown.

Barry Reeger/Associated Press

The fact that this game exists on the schedule has prevented many from embracing Michigan as a realistically playoff threat. Many are not unfamiliar with how this game at the end of the schedule has gone. Recent history says that’s actually wise.

But that game will be played in Ann Arbor, which is a significant boost. And while Ohio State is much flashier, especially on offense, we saw at Nebraska what a difficult environment and quality defense is capable of just a week ago. 

Can the dragon finally be slayed? Michigan is once again likely to be an underdog. That part isn’t new.

The only difference is that the Wolverines have already conquered one demon. Whether it’s able to turn that into something more will be determined in the coming weeks. 

Before then, Michigan's season should be celebrated. In a year that needed Harbaugh to win, he has done so. Sure, there’s a blemish on the schedule. 

As we hit the middle of November, however, Michigan still has everything left to play for. Only a select few can say the same.

Regardless, the narrative that still exists will continue to linger. It doesn't matter how things look today. 

A win over Ohio State, of course, will alter that in a hurry.

Until then, it's reasonable to expect some to be skeptical. The only thing Michigan can do to counter that is win. 

At least in the moment, for the first time in a long time, that feeling is becoming far more normal than it’s been.