Bowl Projections 2021: CFP Predictions After Latest Playoff Rankings
The second edition of the College Football Playoff rankings came out on Tuesday, but there's still plenty of time for things to shift before the committee makes its final selections on December 5.
For now, the four teams who would have the opportunity to play for the CFP National Championship this season would be Georgia, Alabama, Oregon and Ohio State if the season ended today. However, there are still plenty of games on the slate that are going to shake those rankings up.
Cincinnati received some good news from the committee as it saw its ranking go from six in the first week of the rankings to five. It is, theoretically, one spot away from a place in the coveted top four.
That's not necessarily how this works, though. The committee has been known to move the goalposts from time to time, and style points, overall resume and a number of other criteria will be weighed heavily each week.
Here's a look at where the top 10 stands right now and a projection for who will wind up in the top four.
Latest Playoff Rankings and Projections
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1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Cincinnati
6. Michigan
7. Michigan State
8. Oklahoma
9. Notre Dame
10. Oklahoma State
Complete Week 11 rankings can be found at CollegeFootballPlayoff.com.
Projected Playoff
Orange Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Orange Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
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In all likelihood, the Georgia Bulldogs are going to be the No. 1 team in the rankings from wire to wire. They opened as the No. 1 team in the initial rankings and their dominance continued last week.
Kirby Smart's side beat Missouri 43-6 in yet another dominant performance by its defense, which has held opponents to 13 points or less in every game and is tied for the nation's best defense in yards per play, giving up just 3.8.
There's little argument that the Bulldogs are the best team in college football right now. They've taken care of business every week and hold wins over four teams who were ranked at the time of the game.
Georgia has already secured a spot in the SEC championship and will likely be a relatively big favorite when it plays Alabama. With Tennessee, Charleston Southern and Georgia Tech on the schedule, the Dawgs are as close to a sure thing to run the table as you can find in college football.
That game will be important to keep an eye on. If Alabama can keep things competitive with Georgia it wouldn't be surprising to see the committee make a case to take the Tide over the Bearcats.
That brings us to Cincinnati. A Group of Five team has never been selected by the committee, but this year's Bearcats squad is the best chance yet. Luke Fickell's team is a perfect 9-0 which matches its record from last season.
The difference is that last year it only finished the season ranked eighth. This season, the groundwork has been laid for the team to make the field as it is fifth with three games and the conference championship to go.
FiveThirtyEight puts the odds of Cincy winning out at 46 percent and its playoff chances at 67 percent if it is undefeated.
There are still some tough games left. SMU has played well at times this season and the conference championship game will likely pit the Bearcats against Houston.
But the final spot could come down to an undefeated Cincinnati team or a two-loss Alabama. It may cause a revolt if the committee goes with the Crimson Tide in that situation.
Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Ohio State
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One of the more noteworthy discrepancies between the latest playoff rankings and the AP poll is the placement of the Oklahoma Sooners.
The AP has the Sooners sitting at No. 4 in its latest poll while the committee remains unimpressed with their 9-0 record at No. 8. That's three spots below Cincinnati for those scoring at home.
The reason for that is quite simple: The committee hasn't been impressed with the Sooners' schedule.
"If you look at it, they are 9-0 and that's why they're ranked eighth in the country and not somewhere else. But they don't have any signature wins," committee chairman Gary Barta told Berry Tramel of The Oklahoman.
It's a fair criticism. The Sooners are 83rd in strength of schedule by ESPN's metrics. However, the remaining schedule ranks sixth, and Oklahoma will have opportunities to make statements against two teams ranked in the committee's top 25 in Baylor and Oklahoma State.
Throw in Iowa State and the Big 12 championship game, and the Sooners could be adding four quality wins to their resume.
That should shoot them up the rankings. Especially with how well the team has played since Caleb Williams took over for Spencer Rattler at quarterback. They have scored over 50 points in three of the four games he was featured in prominently, including the 55-48 win over Texas.
As of the latest rankings, Ohio State is the latest team to snag a spot in the top four. Oregon is blocking the Buckeyes from moving into the top three and avoiding Georgia in the semifinal but there's good reason to believe that won't hold.
The Ducks won the head-to-head matchup with Ohio State but are 15th in SP+ and 22nd in ESPN's FPI. That doesn't inspire confidence they will be able to get through Washington State, Utah, Oregon State and the Pac-12 Championship unscathed or hold up when compared to Cincinnati or Ohio State at the end of the season.
Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have plenty of opportunities remaining to prove themselves with ranked opponents in Purdue, Michigan State and Michigan before going to the Big Ten Championship Game.
They may even be able to survive a loss in there and still receive consideration given the schedule and how much the committee has liked the Big Ten thus far.
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