Ranking Remaining Games with the Biggest College Football Playoff Implications
The College Football Playoff selection committee released its first two sets of rankings in the last two weeks. With them, we now have a good idea of where teams stand in terms of their chances of making it into the playoff come December.
The teams at the top include No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Oregon, No. 4 Ohio State, and No. 5 Cincinnati. There are also plenty of scenarios for no. 6 Michigan, No. 7 Michigan State, No. 8 Oklahoma and even No. 9 Notre Dame to make it in, as well.
Although it's late in the season, teams still have opportunities that could make or break their playoff chances. Let's rank the remaining games that have the biggest CFP implications. We'll go ahead and omit the conference championship games since we aren't sure who will be in those just yet, though.
All rankings have been updated based on the second edition of the CFP by the selection committee from Nov. 10.
Nov. 20: No. 3 Oregon at Utah
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The Ducks don't necessarily need to win this to clinch the Pac-12 North title (beating Wazzu this week would do that), but they can't afford to lose to an unranked team this season. This game being on the road means it'll be a big test for Oregon late in the year.
Since these two are in separate divisions, they don't play each other every season. But since 2017, Oregon has won two out of the three meetings against the Utes and head coach Kyle Whittingham.
However, the one of those wins was the Pac-12 title game in 2019, which the Ducks won 37-15. The two teams have split wins at home against each other—Oregon defeated Utah in Eugene 41-20 in 2017, and Utah beat the Ducks at home 32-25 in 2018.
Although the Utes are 6-3 with losses to BYU, San Diego State and Oregon State, Utah is undefeated at home this year. Statistics suggest these teams are evenly matched; Oregon is averaging 35 points per game, Utah is at 35.4. Defensively, Oregon has allowed 22.4 points per game, whereas Utah has given up 23.2 this season.
Oregon being on the road against a formidable home opponent gives this potential for a potential upset alert game. If Oregon looks good and takes care of business, don't be surprised if the committee rewards it by giving it a high ranking.
Nov. 27: Penn State at No. 7 Michigan State
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Virtually every remaining game in the Big Ten East for Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan has big playoff implications. This one between Penn State and Michigan State is no exception. Although MSU appears to be the better team, the Nittany Lions have won the last two games against Michigan State.
Another loss to Penn State this season would likely spoil Sparty's chances at a Big Ten Championship or playoff spot. Two losses in the division would tie MSU with Penn State at third in the Big Ten East.
Michigan State's offense has been productive this season, but it will go up against a Penn State defense that ranks tied for 10th in points allowed (16.7) per game. Sparty is averaging 445.3 yards per game, led by a balanced offense.
MSU quarterback Payton Thorne has thrown for 2,173 yards and 17 touchdowns with seven interceptions. Running back Kenneth Walker III has 1,340 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground, and he's averaging 6.8 yards per carry.
There is still a lot that can happen before this game takes place, but in the Big Ten East, it's still important. If Michigan State defeats Ohio State and Michigan beats the Buckeyes, a win for MSU here will clinch the division for Sparty with the head-to-head victory over Michigan.
Nov. 27: No. 8 Oklahoma at No. 10 Oklahoma State
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This could be one of the biggest Bedlam rivalry games in quite some time. It may not be the case on Nov. 27, but both of these teams are currently ranked inside the playoff's Top 10.
For the Sooners, this is one of the last games that Oklahoma can make a statement in during the regular season. It appeared as though OU defeating both Baylor and Oklahoma State could help boost the Sooners' playoff hopes.
But thanks to Baylor losing 30-28 to an unranked TCU team on Saturday, it looks like this matchup against No. 10 Oklahoma State is the last chance for OU to make a statement for the committee. The Bears will likely fall outside of the Top-15 with the loss, and the Sooners just have to play 4-2 Iowa State on Nov. 20 before Bedlam.
History is on Oklahoma's side in this rivalry—the Sooners have defeated the Cowboys in each of the last six years and 16 of the last 18. But Oklahoma State has played well this season. It has an 8-1 record on the year, featuring wins over Baylor, Kansas State and Texas, all of whom were ranked opponents at the time. The game being in Stillwater is another advantage for Ok-State; the Cowboys are unbeaten at home this season.
Oklahoma has struggled against below-.500 teams this season, such as West Virginia and Kansas, but they are still undefeated. If Oklahoma can beat Oklahoma State on the road, it will likely punch its ticket to the Big 12 Championship.
Since the Sooners benched starting quarterback Spencer Rattler for Caleb Williams against Texas, Oklahoma's offense has been rolling. The Sooners are 20th in the nation in passing offense and average 42.9 points per game, good for fifth nationally. Oklahoma State's defense has given up 16.3 points per game, so it should be fun to see how OU's offense can do.
As the Big 12 standings are now, the Sooners may get a rematch against Ok-State in the Big 12 Championship. OU would certainly have to beat the Cowboys twice to have a shot at making it into the playoff.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Nov. 13: No. 6 Michigan at Penn State
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With Michigan State losing to Purdue last Saturday, the Wolverines have a shot at making it into the playoff if they are perfect in Big Ten East play. That includes defeating Penn State on Saturday afternoon.
While the Wolverines look like a far better team than Penn State this season, the Nittany Lions have won the last two matchups over Michigan in this series. This one is in Happy Valley, where Penn State has gone 4-1 at home this season. The early line has Penn State as a one-point favorite, so it should be a close one.
This Wolverine team is one of head coach Jim Harbaugh's best, despite the loss to Michigan State on Oct. 30. Quarterback Cade McNamara has thrown for 1,666 yards and nine touchdowns with two interceptions. UM running back Hassan Haskins also has 873 yards and 11 touchdowns, and he's averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Michigan is tied for the sixth-best scoring defense in the nation, allowing just 16 points per game.
Penn State's 2021 season has gone downhill quickly, featuring three straight losses to Iowa, Illinois and Ohio State. But Penn State rebounded this week with a 31-14 road win over Maryland, so that might give the Nittany Lions some confidence to upset Michigan heading back home. This one should be a great game regardless, but Michigan's playoff hopes hanging in the balance makes it even bigger.
Nov. 20: No. 7 Michigan State at No. 4 Ohio State
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Both of these teams are in the thick of the playoff hunt, and this game has both Top-4 and Big Ten implications. Michigan State falling to Purdue on Saturday does give the Buckeyes a one-game edge over Sparty in the Big Ten East standings. But depending on what happens with OSU-Purdue this Saturday, Michigan State could get the edge over the Buckeyes in the ranking with a win.
However, history is on Ohio State's side in this series—the Buckeyes haven't lost to Michigan State since 2015. The last four games in this series haven't exactly been close, either. Since 2017, Ohio State has defeated Michigan State by an average of 32 points. Ohio State has played well since losing to Oregon at home in Week 2, and this game being in Columbus certainly gives the Buckeyes an edge.
The committee initially ranking Ohio State at No. 5 with a loss to No. 4 Oregon means it thinks highly of both teams. A win for OSU would put the Buckeyes in the driver's seat both in the playoff and Big Ten East.
Obviously, Michigan State losing to an unranked Purdue team hurts Sparty's playoff resume. It'll be interesting to see if the committee gives any slack to MSU for losing to Purdue, though. The Boilermakers have defeated two top-5 opponents this season, upsetting then-No. 2 Iowa earlier this year.
Nonetheless, if Sparty can go on the road and beat a very talented OSU team—assuming it wins the Big Ten Championship Game—it might be enough to give Sparty a bid.
Nov. 27: No. 2 Alabama at No. 17 Auburn
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This is already marquee rivalry in college football, but the 2021 Iron Bowl looks like it could be another instant classic. No. 2 Alabama's loss to Texas A&M means that the Tide has to remain perfect in the SEC West to make it to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game.
It also means that a loss for Alabama against Auburn would effectively knock the Tide out of the playoff race. Does that scenario sound a bit familiar to you? That's because that is precisely what happened two years ago.
Alabama entered the Iron Bowl in Auburn 10-1, with their lone loss against undefeated LSU. Had the Tide defeated Auburn, they would have likely made the playoff and gotten a shot at redemption against LSU. Auburn shocked the college football world and upset the Tide 48-45, though, as a missed field goal by Alabama gave the Tigers the win.
Fast forward to 2021, and Alabama hasn't looked quite as dominant as it has in years past. They let Tennessee hang around for far too long and won a way-too-close 20-14 game against a struggling LSU team on Saturday. Sure, Auburn also lost 20-3 to the same TAMU team that beat Bama, but that game was in College Station.
Auburn has won the last two Iron Bowls, in 2017 and 2019, played On The Plains. Maybe Alabama is far better than we think they are this season, but this Iron Bowl feels pretty monumental.
Nov. 27: No. 4 Ohio State at No. 6 Michigan
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"The Game" has always been one of college football's most storied rivalries, but both of these teams being in the playoff hunt this season elevates the intensity. These two didn't face off for the first time in over a century because of a COVID-19 outbreak at Michigan last season, so the 2021 edition of this rivalry after almost two years of not playing each other should be a fun one, indeed.
The Buckeyes control their own destiny in both the Big Ten East and playoff. To win its division, go to Big Ten Championship and advance to the CFP, it has to beat Michigan.
Michigan, if it can defeat Penn State and Maryland over the next two weeks, can do the same with a win over Ohio State. But there is one obvious fact hanging over this game—the streak. Ohio State has won the last eight matchups, dating back to 2012. It's the biggest knock against Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh that he hasn't been able to defeat Michigan's biggest rival.
Still, this looks like one of the best Michigan teams that Harbaugh has had in quite a while. This game being at The Big House should be a major advantage for the Wolverines, as well. However, this game hasn't been close the last three times, as Ohio State has defeated Michigan by an average of 21 points.
We'll have to see if Michigan and Ohio State win out against their remaining Big Ten East opponents, but this one should be just as big even if one team stumbles.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
