B/R Experts Answer Biggest College Football Questions for Week 10
The first College Football Playoff poll came out this week, and now all the top teams know where they stand in the eyes of the committee.
Unfortunately for all us die-hards, Week 10 doesn't do much to whet the ol' appetite for big-name games. All that means, of course, is college football is going to hurl a mustard bottle at us like they do in Neyland Stadium and everything's going to be straight-up pandemonium.
There is one minor flash game, which is No. 13 Auburn traveling to College Station to take on 14th-ranked Texas A&M in yet another instance where strong teams from the SEC West beat up on each other—a weekly occurrence.
Michigan State comes off its riveting win over Michigan with a trap game against Purdue, Washington tries to see if it can muster any offense against Oregon and Tennessee travels to Kentucky to try to hand the Wildcats their third consecutive loss.
Then there are the games that sure did look good at the start of the season, like Alabama-LSU and Ohio State-Nebraska. Oh, and don't forget Hugh Freeze, who takes his Liberty Flames back to his Oxford, Mississippi, stomping grounds.
Bleacher Report's college football experts David Kenyon, Adam Kramer, Kerry Miller, Morgan Moriarty and Brad Shepard will try to make sense of the shenanigans, offering up their predictions for some of the biggest things to watch for this week.
No. 13 Auburn Tigers at No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies: Who You Got?
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Morgan Moriarty
Man, what a fun SEC West matchup!
Very few would have predicted a month ago that Auburn would control its own divisional destiny the first weekend in November, but here we are. The Tigers are 3-1 in the SEC West behind Alabama, but beating A&M on the road is a huge hurdle. Can Auburn prove itself as a legitimate contender?
After upsetting No. 1 Alabama on Oct. 9, the Aggies have easily taken care of SEC East doormats Missouri and South Carolina. But the Aggies defense now faces Bo Nix and a Tigers offense that has averaged 34.5 points in wins over Arkansas and Ole Miss.
How this game goes will depend on Nix. For the season, he has completed 62 percent of his passes for 1,764 yards and nine touchdowns with just two interceptions. In road games, though, he has 732 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, boosted by a big road win at Arkansas.
I think Nix can play like he did against the Hogs and help the Tigers pull out a big one on the road. Auburn running back Tank Bigsby, who had 140 yards and a touchdown last week against Ole Miss, will face off against an Aggie rush defense that allows 129.38 rushing yards per game. If Auburn takes care of business, all eyes will be on the Iron Bowl.
Brad Shepard
At some point, you've got to stop being a doubter and start believing in a team that burns you time and time again, right?
That's exactly how Auburn has treated me much of the season. Every week I pick against them, and, more often than not, coach Bryan Harsin's team has made me look like an idiot.
But I…just…can't…pick…them this week, either. Not at College Station, where the crowd gets so loud and rowdy the stadium shakes, and the Aggies feed off all that glorious weirdness of the pageantry surrounding the game. It's just tough to pick against A&M after it beat Alabama at home.
Now, the Aggies are coming off a bye week and dominated Missouri and South Carolina before that. On one hand, they have to elevate their play for the first time since that win over Bama. But Zach Calzada is leading an Aggies offensive renaissance.
The young Aggies have gotten better throughout the year, and while the same can be said for the Tigers, A&M is fresher, healthier and has the home-field advantage. It's tough going against an AU defense that has been terrific and Nix, who has been more fantastic than frustrating.
But Jimbo's boys are going to get it done, 31-27.
Does Unranked Purdue Knock off Another AP Top 5 Foe This Week?
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David Kenyon
Purdue is frustratingly unpredictable. After a 2-0 start, the Boilermakers have alternated losses and wins in a manner that doesn't make much sense.
They stuck with Notre Dame into the fourth quarter on the road, then barely survived at home against Illinois. They fell to Minnesota on the road, then dominated Iowa at Kinnick Stadium. They followed that up by collapsing in West Lafayette opposite Wisconsin, then clipped Nebraska on the road.
It's an "up is down, right is left" kind of season.
Though the Boilermakers are basically David Bell-or-bust on offense—they have the nation's worst Power Five rushing offense—the defense has surrendered only 17.1 points per game.
Purdue's strength is its secondary, and a hand injury may sideline key Michigan State wideout Jalen Nailor. If he's out, the Boilers have a major advantage.
But the performance I can't ignore is Purdue's dreadful run defense two weeks ago. Wisconsin rushed for 290 yards and three touchdowns in a dominant win. Michigan State's two worst showings of the season (Nebraska and Indiana) also include their two worst rushing days of the year, so the blueprint to force a tight finish is clear.
However, I'm inclined to believe Kenneth Walker III will break off a couple of explosive runs and lift MSU to a valuable win.
Brad Shepard
Back on October 16, the Boilermakers captured plenty of magic when they went to Kinnick Stadium and upset then second-ranked Iowa in a game that really wasn't that close.
Here's the problem with this week's battle against Michigan State: The Spartans aren't in the top two.
According to ESPN, Purdue's nine wins all-time against teams in the top two nationally as an unranked team are more than double the next-highest team. It's a pretty amazing stat, even if it dubiously means the Boilermakers are rarely ranked.
Since that win over the Hawkeyes, they've been a bit "meh," getting drilled by Wisconsin and barely beating Nebraska. Again, the potential is there, but the Boilermakers are an inconsistent 5-3.
Michigan State does not look like the type of team to have a letdown, even after such an emotional home win over Michigan a week ago. Mel Tucker's team is rugged, battle-tested and looks equally emotionally and physically tough. Yes, this is a classic trap game, but it's not going to happen.
The Spartans are going to get it done, even if it isn't the prettiest.
Over/Under: 0.5 Offensive Touchdowns for Missouri at No. 1 Georgia?
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Adam Kramer
Georgia has allowed six total touchdowns to date—the best mark in the country. In fact, it's more than twice as good as the No. 2 teams, Clemson and Cincinnati, which have allowed 14 TDs.
What we're seeing is remarkable and possibly historic.
This is all terrible news for Missouri, which is nearly a 40-point underdog. The Tigers are coming off a win, although it came against Vanderbilt, which doesn't tell us much.
In my eyes, the only way Missouri scores a touchdown is in garbage time. That's how good this defense is. Maybe deep into the second half the backups' backups allow a score.
With Georgia heading to Tennessee—its toughest remaining road trip—next week, pulling the starters early on makes sense.
This is a sad, tough answer. Missouri fans, I'm sorry. Even with the potential variables, I'll take the under.
Brad Shepard
Boy, oh boy. I'm going to go with the over—barely.
If you're betting on a Dawgs game, the only real question these days becomes, "How many are they going to score on offense?" Coach Kirby Smart's near-perfect defense simply doesn't allow anything.
In 32 quarters this season, they've allowed a remarkable five offensive touchdowns (six total), and all but one were in garbage time. Mizzou quarterback Connor Bazelak suffered a soft-tissue injury against Vanderbilt and was replaced by true freshman Tyler Macon, and Bazelak's status for this week is uncertain.
Macon didn't throw a pass, by the way. Yeah, this could get ugly.
At some point, though, you've got to believe Eli Drinkwitz will be able to design a play for Tyler Badie, and he will get in the end zone. Right? RIGHT?
With the total around 60 and UGA favored by 38, the experts seem to think Mizzou can squeeze a touchdown in there somewhere. The only reason I'm saying over is we're talking about one here. That's it. That's all. But this is the same guy who took the over in the Iowa-Wisconsin game, so…
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Does No. 4 Oregon's College Football Playoff Dream End at Washington?
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Kerry Miller
First of all, a great big Owen Wilson-style "Wow!" to Oregon debuting at No. 4 in the CFP rankings. I thought the Ducks were going to land at No. 7, like they are in the AP poll. Evidently, the selection committee put a whole heck of a lot of stock in that win over Ohio State from almost two months ago and maybe hasn't watched much Oregon football since then.
But I digress, because I'm pretty confident Oregon is going to win this game against what has been a disappointing Washington football team. (Not to be confused with the even more disappointing Washington Football Team.)
The Huskies have been respectable on defense, but they have struggled against teams that can run the ball well (and even a few that can't).
Back on the same day that Oregon toppled Ohio State, Washington gave up 343 rushing yards to Michigan. The Huskies were also gashed more recently by Oregon State, UCLA and Arizona. And the Ducks, even without the injured C.J. Verdell, can certainly run the ball.
Washington simply doesn't have the offensive firepower to keep pace if and when Travis Dye and Anthony Brown establish the ground and pound. Oregon rolls 35-17.
Brad Shepard
If you haven't watched Dylan Morris run John Donovan's offense, it's basically like going back in time to when the forward pass was looked upon with disdain. Washington's offense is really, really bad.
Now, the Huskies host a Ducks team that has survived a few weeks of being decimated by injuries and still earned enough style points to shockingly rank fourth in the initial CFP poll. This game may be in Seattle, but it's not going to matter much.
With the way Mario Cristobal has recruited to Eugene, Oregon has a stable of capable running backs even without C.J. Verdell. Yes, Verdell a massive loss that will come back to hurt them down the road, but it won't be this weekend. Washington's run defense is so bad that it's not going to matter.
The bottom line for U-Dub is the Jimmy Lake era has been one big disappointment so far. You can point to Morris as much as you want (and ineffective quarterback play deserves a lot of blame), but Lake is a defensive-minded coach, and the Huskies haven't reflected that mentality in the stats.
It's going to get ugly this week, and Oregon is going to run away with it 31-13.
Will Tennessee Extend No. 18 Kentucky's Losing Streak to Three Straight Games?
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Morgan Moriarty
It's tough for any team to play at No. 1 Georgia then go back on the road for its next game like Kentucky just did. So the Wildcats are lucky to be heading back to Lexington where they should get back on track with a win over the Vols.
UK is undefeated at home, and although Tennessee hung tough with Ole Miss and battled Alabama far longer than anyone expected, I like the Wildcats. Kentucky averages 175 rushing yards, whereas the Vols defense allows 144.
I think Kentucky can control time of possession with the ground game. Even if quarterback Will Levis has to air it out, he shouldn't have too much trouble. Tennessee's defense has just eight interceptions, and although Levis threw three picks in last week's loss against Mississippi State, he'll be more comfortable at home.
This will be a pretty close game, though, and I like what Tennessee has done in its past two games against Bama and Ole Miss. Plus, the Vols will be coming off of a bye, so they should be rested and ready to go.
But Tennessee's best wins came against struggling South Carolina and Missouri, so I don't think the Vols have what it takes to give Kentucky its third straight loss. Maybe I'm wrong, though, and I am sure Brad disagrees with me.
Brad Shepard
Yes, of course I disagree. This is Tennessee-Kentucky, and the Vols simply don't lose to Kentucky [frantically erasing last year's 34-7 debacle from memory].
Really, though, Tennessee is 33-3 against the Wildcats dating back to 1985. But "history" isn't the reason I'm picking the Vols. Mark Stoops has built UK into a respectable program, and the talent level is catching up with its rivals, despite Tennessee recruiting better than the Wildcats every year on paper.
But Kentucky simply isn't as good as its record indicates, as evidenced by last week's debacle in Starkville. The Vols are healthier than they've been in six weeks, and Hendon Hooker has morphed into a terrific weapon for Josh Heupel, ranking 12th nationally in quarterback rating.
This UT offense is explosive, and while the defense hasn't been great, they're first nationally in tackles for loss and have simply worn down against more talented teams later in games. Kentucky is good, and, yes, the 'Cats can try to control the time of possession.
But can they hang with a Vols team that routinely lights up the scoreboard? Do they have those kinds of fireworks? This is a good matchup for Tennessee. I'm going with the Vols, 31-27 in a classic.
Why the Heck Is Ohio State Only Favored by 14.5 at Nebraska?
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David Kenyon
I'm skeptical about the number, but there is a logical path to 14.5.
The first two factors are relatively common upset contributors. Nebraska is hosting the game, and the biggest upsets tend to happen when a top-ranked team is on the road. Also, the Buckeyes just earned a key victory against a Top 25 opponent. This is classic "letdown game" territory for Ohio State.
Lastly, the Cornhuskers are 3-6 but aren't getting blown out. They've played three current Top 10 programs—Oklahoma, Michigan State and Michigan—and lost those contests by a combined 13 points.
While that doesn't provide much solace for a frustrated fan base that expected greater improvement in Scott Frost's tenure, Nebraska has been a competitive team. In fact, all six losses are by one possession (eight points or less).
Although I'm still expecting Ohio State to cover the spread, I understand the reasons for it.
Brad Shepard
I feel like the College Football Playoff committee and the Vegas sharps quit watching the Buckeyes after they lost to Oregon. Truly, that's the only excuse for this line.
Of course, every time everybody thinks a play like this is easy money, it goes the other way. That's why there are bright lights in Vegas, right?
Much like his entire career, Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez has major ability, but it's mixed with massive inconsistency. You just never know what you're going to get with him. A glimpse at the stats shows you the Cornhuskers are fourth in the B1G in scoring offense and seventh in total defense, so they aren't bad.
They just aren't winning.
But the Buckeyes are, and with C.J. Stroud looking elite, TreVeyon Henderson a freshman megastar and the receiving corps among the best nationally, there are just too many weapons for Nebraska to contain. Oh, by the way, the defense is allowing fewer than 14 points per game in the past five, too.
This is a team finding its way, and this line is far too low. I don't get it at all.
Which Number Will Be Bigger: LSU's Point Total or Alabama's Margin of Victory?
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Adam Kramer
I went to this game in 2019. I remember just how superb Joe Burrow's hair was in the postgame. Oh, and I remember LSU's offense giving Nick Saban's defense fits.
That wasn't terribly long ago, although it certainly feels that way. Alabama is more than a four-touchdown favorite, and I can't say that line feels the least bit wrong.
Injuries certainly play a significant part in this. LSU has lost many of its best players for the year, and not having them against one of the deepest rosters in all of CFB hurts.
With that in mind, I just don't know how LSU will be competitive in this game. Perhaps the Tigers will find success early on against the Tide, like we saw with Tennessee, although sustaining that over the course of the entire game will be an enormous challenge.
As for the question, and it's a doozy, here's how I see it playing out. Tigers fans, you might want to look away.
Alabama 48, LSU 20. Margin of victory wins.
Brad Shepard
Lame-duck LSU coach Ed Orgeron's postgame, profanity-laced speech after beating Alabama in 2019 hasn't aged well. Nick Saban is still going strong in Tuscaloosa, and the Bayou Bengals are looking to start the next era.
Also, even though it likely wasn't meant the way it came out, it seems Orgeron is making bargains with recruits now on his way out. Hear it from elite 4-star prospect Aaron Anderson of New Orleans, who flipped his commitment from LSU to Alabama after the Orgeron decision.
"We had an agreement if he was leaving I would be taking my talents to Alabama," Anderson said after flipping his commitment from LSU to the Crimson Tide.
Hmmmm. That probably doesn't sit well with the Bayou faithful.
There isn't much for them to be happy about on the gridiron this year, either. LSU is 4-4 overall, 2-3 in the SEC and can't find any consistency on defense. The offense has been too predictable, as well.
In other words, things aren't shaping up for this game against UA to be very competitive on Saturday. So, I'm going with the margin of victory here. Bama wins 45-21, and it may be even uglier than the final score indicates.
What Will Be the Biggest Outright Upset of the Week?
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Kerry Miller
Got to swing big on this one, because I'm pretty sure there has been at least one outright win by an underdog of 15 or more points in every week. So let me go with one I don't even really believe will happen: 4-4 South Carolina upsetting 4-4 Florida as a 19.5-point home dog.
Things seem to have fallen off the rails for Dan Mullen.
Fresh off a 34-7 loss to Georgia that went from "possible upset" to "merciless blowout" in the span of about 90 seconds of game time, Mullen gave weird answers about recruiting and their schedule before Florida abruptly canceled everything else on his media plate (with the exception of the SEC teleconference on Wednesday).
There was also a story from The Athletic's Bruce Feldman and G. Allan Taylor in which other SEC coaches weighed in on why Florida has been such a disappointment.
Those are the exact types of distractions that can make this game super weird.
The Gators have the talent to destroy South Carolina, which has yet to score 24 points in a game against an FBS opponent. Heck, the Gamecocks have already lost games this season by 30, 27 and 25 points.
But they have been (at least compared to their play on the road) respectable in Columbia this season, beating Troy and almost beating Kentucky. And somewhere between Troy and Kentucky is about where Florida's level of play has been as of late.
Brad Shepard
My head says "go with Maryland over Penn State after the Nittany Lions' emotional loss to Ohio State a week ago," but that's not big or bold enough, even if the Terrapins could pull it off.
Instead, we're going big-time, over-the-top bonkers with this one. How ridiculous, you ask? Picking 0-8 Arizona to upset the California Bears, erasing a 12-point spread and finally breaking through for their first win since October 5, 2019.
Nothing about the Pac-12 has gone the way we've expected, so why not extend the bizarro world of that conference this week? Yes, the Bears are coming off their best performance of the season in a 39-25 win over Oregon State, but how good are the Beavers?
Justin Wilcox's team has played Oregon, Washington, Washington State and TCU close in losses, but only the game against the Ducks stands up.
Arizona, meanwhile, has been showing steady improvement under Jedd Fisch despite the inability to break through. The Wildcats had a two-score halftime lead over Washington before losing 21-16 two weeks ago. Last weekend, they played USC close in a 41-34 loss.
This week, they get it done and celebrate at homecoming.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
