Predicting Which 2021-22 NBA Hot Starts Won't Last
Small-sample-size theater is a fun early-season staple. Year after year in the NBA, various teams and players get off to red-hot (or ice-cold) starts, and there aren't enough games in the books to level off the averages.
For example, think back to last season, when Jerami Grant averaged 25.1 points and shot 46.2 percent from the field and 39.6 percent from three over his first 15 games.
Some of what he was doing seemed sustainable. For one thing, he was in a situation where more shots were available to him than ever before. And it was clear no one else on the roster was suddenly going to seize his role.
But it still just felt like he had to cool off at some point. And he did. Over the rest of the season, he averaged 21.2 points and shot 41.5 percent from the field and 32.9 percent from three.
The 2020-21 Indiana Pacers are another example. They started 6-2 under first-year head coach Nate Bjorkgren. With a solid collection of talent and a seemingly innovative young coach at the helm, things were looking up. And then they weren't.
The Pacers slowly spiraled over the rest of the season, eventually flaming out in the second game of the play-in tournament. Shortly after the season, Bjorkgren was let go.
This season, there will surely be a few situations that end in similar fashion (though maybe not quite as dramatic as a firing). Which stars or players might not be quite as hot in a few weeks as they are now? Let's explore some possible answers below.
Washington Wizards
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The Russell Westbrook trade seemed like a smart deal at the time the Washington Wizards made it this summer. Despite Westbrook's blistering end to the 2020-21 season, the fit alongside Bradley Beal always felt a little wonky, and turning him into multiple rotation players would surely bolster the Wizards bench.
So far this season, former Lakers Montrezl Harrell, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Kyle Kuzma have combined for 1.4 wins over replacement player (value over replacement player times 2.7, according to Basketball Reference). Westbrook has minus-0.5.
But even if Washington continues to look like the winner of this deal throughout this season, it's difficult to imagine them maintaining the pace they've established early on.
Even with starting guards Bradley Beal and Spencer Dinwiddie both missing time in separate games, the Wizards are tied with the New York Knicks, Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls for first place in the Eastern Conference.
This team is talented, deep and better balanced than it was in 2020-21, but it can't match the star power of teams like the Brooklyn Nets or Milwaukee Bucks, both of whom have gotten off to shaky starts.
Washington is good enough to be competitive on most nights, and it'll certainly stay in the playoff hunt throughout the season, but there will likely be some regression eventually.
Title Odds: +16000
Harrison Barnes
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Over the past 3-5 years, Harrison Barnes has been a steady, though unspectacular, scorer for the Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings. From the start of the 2016-17 campaign up until 2021-22, he's averaged 17.1 points and shot 37.7 percent from three.
Those are decent numbers for a second or third option, but the lack of hyper-efficiency or ancillary contributions (like passing) always seemed to mute his impact a bit. In the same stretch, his teams' net rating was a point worse when he was on the floor.
Now, suddenly, in his age-29 season, Barnes looks like the bona fide superstar many imagined he could be when he was the top high school recruit in the country.
After years of seeming content to just sort of roam off the ball and take catch-and-shoot jumpers, Barnes is attacking his way to averages of 23.3 points, 10.3 rebounds and 3.3 threes. He's attempting almost two pull-up threes per game, for crying out loud (comfortably a high for Barnes in the tracking era).
As was said about Grant in the intro, some of this feels sustainable. Again, Barnes was a highly coveted high school prospect. Perhaps it just took him longer than most blue-chippers to truly reach his full potential. But nearly a decade of evidence against NBA-level competition is hard to ignore.
Barnes' current marks for points per game, rebounds per game, threes per game, field-goal percentage, three-point percentage and box plus/minus would all be career highs (and in most cases, by wide margins).
Even if by the end of this season, we look back and think it was Barnes' best in the NBA, most or all of his numbers are going to come down a bit.
Minnesota Timberwolves
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The Minnesota Timberwolves could very well be on their way to a spot in the play-in tournament. If not, it seems like they'll at least be in contention for a top-10 finish.
On the season, the Wolves are a strong plus-7.4 points per 100 possessions when No. 1 picks Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards are on the floor. With their sort-of inverted inside-out game (featuring an attacking wing and jump shooting big), they should be difficult to defend all season.
Having said all that, the Timberwolves made one playoff appearance in the 17 seasons prior to this one. It wouldn't be hard to argue that Jimmy Butler, now leading the Heat, dragged them there.
KAT, Edwards and D'Angelo Russell are all talented, particularly on the offensive end, but it's hard to envision any of them as the kind of alpha who can will a roster to the postseason. Maybe that's just because they haven't done it yet. The NBA viewer's brain tends to drift toward what it's already seen. It's been hard to bet against LeBron James for years.
So, even if Minnesota is moving in the right direction, it's tough to envision a scenario in which they remain on home-court advantage's door step.
Right now, they're just a half game behind the Dallas Mavericks for fourth place, ahead of the teams like LeBron's Los Angeles Lakers, the Portland Trail Blazers, Memphis Grizzlies and Phoenix Suns. We've seen all of those squads in the playoffs. We just saw the Suns in the Finals a few months ago.
All we've seen from these Timberwolves are lottery finishes.
Title Odds: +12000
Ja Morant
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Ja Morant is making a superstar leap. There's no doubt about that.
After winning 2019-20 Rookie of the Year, he sort of plateaued last regular season. Then, he went toe-to-toe with Donovan Mitchell and the top-seeded Utah Jazz in the playoffs. His team may have lost the series in five games, but Morant seemed to discover something within himself while averaging 30.2 points and 8.2 assists.
He's picked up right where he left off last postseason with marks of 28.7 points and 7.7 assists. His Memphis Grizzlies look poised for another season in the playoff hunt, and Morant is posting what would be career highs all over the stat sheet, including field-goal percentage and three-point percentage.
But (in line with the theme of the slideshow to this point), while Morant may well be a better player this season, the likelihood of him maintaining this level of play is low.
If his averages for points and assists stayed at least this high for the entire season, he'd be just the 11th player in NBA history to finish at those thresholds. In the immortal words of Kevin Garnett, anything is possible, but a regression feels like the safer bet, especially with gunner Dillon Brooks due back at some point.
MVP Odds: +3200
New York Knicks
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With all due respect to the former Knicks, going from Elfrid Payton and Reggie Bullock to Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier was a massive upgrade in New York.
Last season, Payton and Bullock combined for 1.1 wins over replacement player. Walker and Fournier have matched that total through six games.
If holdovers like RJ Barrett, Julius Randle, Derrick Rose and Mitchell Robinson are at or near the level they were in 2020-21, Walker and Fournier should push the Knicks to be better than the .569 team that finished fourth and made the playoffs.
Predicting them to hang onto their spot at the top of the Eastern Conference, though? That's a much bigger stretch.
Miami was in the Finals in 2020. We've seen Kevin Durant, who averaged 34.3 points last postseason and carried Team USA to gold shortly thereafter, reach the mountaintop on more than one occasion. The Bucks just won the title in July.
New York feels like a shoo-in for a return trip to the playoffs, but there are more trustworthy options for first-place predictions.
Title Odds: +8000
