College Football Odds Week 5: Over-Under and Picks Against the Spread for Top 25

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistSeptember 30, 2021

College Football Odds Week 5: Over-Under and Picks Against the Spread for Top 25

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    Rogelio V. Solis/Associated Press

    The Ole Miss Rebels may pose the biggest threat to the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC West. 

    Lane Kiffin has built up an offensive powerhouse during his short time in Oxford, Mississippi, and his team was competitive with Alabama last season. 

    Alabama's 63-48 victory from a year ago is one of the reasons why the over/under for Saturday afternoon's clash sits at 80. 

    Alabama and Ole Miss have two of the most dynamic offenses in the country, and we could see plenty of offensive fireworks at Bryant-Denny Stadium. 

    The other marquee SEC clash of Week 5 is expected to produce the exact opposite type of game. 

    The Arkansas Razorbacks and Georgia Bulldogs are known for their defense. The strong play of both units could lead to a low-scoring affair at Sanford Stadium in Georgia. 

Week 5 Schedule and Odds

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    Tony Ding/Associated Press

    Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

    Friday, October 1

    No. 5 Iowa (-3) at Maryland (Over/Under: 48) (8 p.m. ET, FS1)

    No. 13 BYU (-8.5) at Utah State (O/U: 61.5) (9 p.m. ET, CBSSN)

          

    Saturday, October 2

    No. 8 Arkansas at No. 2 Georgia (-18.5) (O/U: 48) (noon ET, ESPN)

    No. 14 Michigan at Wisconsin (-2.5) (O/U: 43.5) (noon ET, Fox)

    Louisville at No. 24 Wake Forest (-6.5) (O/U: 61.5) (12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3)

    No. 7 Cincinnati (-1.5) at No. 9 Notre Dame (O/U: 51) (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC)

    UL-Monroe at No. 16 Coastal Carolina (-34.5) (O/U: 57) (2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

    No. 12 Ole Miss at No. 1 Alabama (-14.5) (O/U: 80) (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

    No. 3 Oregon (-8) at Stanford (O/U: 58) (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

    No. 6 Oklahoma (-11) at Kansas State (O/U: 52.5) (3:30 p.m. ET, Fox)

    No. 11 Ohio State (-15) at Rutgers (O/U: 58.5) (3:30 p.m. ET, BTN)

    No. 10 Florida (-8.5) at Kentucky (O/U: 55) (6 p.m. ET, ESPN)

    Louisiana Tech at No. 23 NC State (-20.5) (O/U: 53) (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

    Mississippi State at No. 15 Texas A&M (-7) (O/U: 46) (7 p.m. ET, SEC Network)

    No. 21 Baylor at No. 19 Oklahoma State (-3.5) (O/U: 47) (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

    Indiana at No. 4 Penn State (-11.5) (O/U: 53.5) (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

    Western Kentucky at No. 17 Michigan State (-10.5) (O/U: 64.5) (7:30 p.m. ET, FS1)

    Boston College at No. 25 Clemson (-14.5) (O/U: 46.5) (7:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network)

    No. 22 Auburn at LSU (-3.5) (O/U: 55.5) (9 p.m. ET, ESPN)

    Arizona State at No. 20 UCLA (-3) (O/U: 55.5) (10:30 p.m. ET, FS1)

    No. 18 Fresno State (-11) at Hawai'i (O/U: 65) (11 p.m. ET, CBSSN)

    Predictions against the spread in bold.

         

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No. 12 Ole Miss at No. 1 Alabama (Under 80)

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    Vasha Hunt/Associated Press

    Nick Saban's defense typically does not give up as many yards and points as it did to Ole Miss a year ago. 

    A year ago, Ole Miss put up 647 total yards in a 63-48 defeat in which Alabama produced 723 total yards. 

    Everyone is expecting to see a high-scoring game on Saturday afternoon, but the Crimson Tide defense may ruin the idea of an 80-point shootout. 

    Alabama's defense has held three of its first four opponents to 14 points or fewer. Its one high concession came in the Week 3 victory against the Florida Gators, who scored 29 points. 

    The Crimson Tide should be motivated to prove that this year's defensive unit will not be gashed for a high yardage total against Ole Miss. 

    The Florida game should serve as motivation for the Alabama defense to play better against one of its top conference foes. 

    After the Texas A&M Aggies lost to the Arkansas Razorbacks, Ole Miss should be viewed as the top threat to Alabama in the SEC West.

    However, that title may be stripped away fast if Alabama makes the proper adjustments this year versus Matt Corral and his high-flying offense. 

    Kenny Yeboah and Elijah Moore, both of whom left for the NFL after last season, made up a majority of Ole Miss' receiving production in last year's matchup. They caught 18 balls for 324 yards and a pair of touchdowns. 

    Dontario Drummond and Jonathan Mingo will get their first test against Alabama as top targets. They each had a single catch in the 2020 shootout. 

    Alabama's defense could feast on the big-game inexperience of both wide receivers, and it may contain running back Jerrion Ealy as well. The Crimson Tide allowed 288.8 total yards per game in September. 

    Ole Miss' defense conceded 20.7 points per game to start the season. Alabama represents a step up in competition from its first four opponents, but it is worth noting the Rebels can get a few stops. 

    For the Over 80 to hit, you will need many fast-paced scoring drives and little defense. Based off their early returns, the two SEC sides should play just enough defense to keep the game under. 

No. 8 Arkansas at No. 2 Georgia (Under 48)

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    The first Top 25 matchup of Week 5 from the SEC should be played at a quieter offensive pace. 

    Arkansas and Georgia have two of the best defenses in the FBS, and it is hard to see where 48 points will come from to hit the over. 

    Arkansas conceded 14.8 points per game to start the season. It allowed a single opponent to get over the 20-point threshold. 

    Georgia let up 23 points in its first four games. It is coming off a shutout of the lowly Vanderbilt Commodores. 

    Both defenses allow under 270 total yards and 150 passing yards per game and neither offense was overly impressive in their respective biggest games of the season.

    Arkansas managed to put up 20 points in its Week 4 win over Texas A&M, while Georgia scored just 10 points in its opener with the Clemson Tigers. 

    The Arkansas defense faces the tougher task on Saturday because it has to reset after an emotional rivalry win over A&M. 

    Arkansas did not have to exude a ton of defensive energy since Zach Calzada was ineffective, but the victory still took a lot out of the team emotionally. 

    With the way both defenses play, expect the first half to be a conservative, low-scoring, feeling-out process. More risks could come in the second half on the offensive side of the ball.

    Arkansas' defense should keep it in the game and cover the 18.5-point spread, but it will be hard for its offense to get past one of the most dominant defenses in the country to score on a few occasions. 

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