MLB Fantasy Baseball: The Real Value of Scott Kazmir

In the last week, I’ve received several emails asking about Scott Kazmir. Most were centered on trades that seemed to be less than adequate to get a pitcher of this caliber. It got me thinking that it might be time to do a little evaluation on his numbers. Then we can see what exactly would be fair value in an exchange.

Kazmir started the season injured, which limited his early starts. Through eight outings this season, he has a 1.74 ERA, a WHIP of 1.02, and a BAA of .222. His numbers at home are more impressive, going 0.35/0.58/.140, respectively. He’s 4-0 at home and is striking out nearly a batter every inning.

Each year, these numbers have gotten better. Over the last three seasons, he’s struck out better than a batter an inning, has kept his WHIP below my magic number of 1.30, and has allowed batters to hit only .241 against him while at the Trop. These are significant, if only because he has to make half of his starts in that ballpark each season.

The question on Kazmir has always been control. He throws a lot of pitches and has been expected to put too many innings on his arm this early in his career.

Why?

The Rays bullpen has been awful, and that’s being kind. Tampa has had no one at the end of the bullpen to lock down saves, and they have thrown a host of middle-relievers out that would make any manager go nuts. Add that to the fact that they are stuck playing in the AL East, against two of the highest payrolls in baseball, and they lack anything that resembles an offense, and that has created major problems for all of their starters, not just Kazmir.

This team, though, seems different. The Rays have put together a solid, young lineup that has been able to hang with the better teams in the league. The additional offense creates greater opportunities for wins, and it lessens the pressure on the pitchers to be perfect.

Joe Maddon has also brought in relievers that are at least serviceable, if not close to reliable. Dan Wheeler and Troy Percival have solidified the end of the bullpen.

The emergence of James Shields, along with the ability of Matt Garza and Edwin Jackson to pitch well at least 50 percent of the time, has created more chances for success. Without them, Tampa has been a once-every-five-days-you-better-watch-out kind of team.

Taking a look at 2008, the injury may actually help Kazmir. He’s coming off a season where he threw 33 percent more innings than the prior year, jumping from 148 to over 200. At the end of last season, he was tired, and you saw the walks creep up. Again, bullpen stability was a problem.

In 2005, though, he was walking 4.83 batters per nine innings. In 2007, that number dropped to 3.88, and this year, it’s sitting at 2.82 in his limited work.

Kazmir started 34 games last season. Right now, he’ll likely start in the 25 range, averaging about seven innings per start. That will be 13 percent fewer innings than last season. It should allow him to keep his strength while moving to the end of the year. He’s now surrounded by players that can produce offensively, generating better win opportunities, and the team is proving they can hang with the big boys.

Tampa seems to have always had moderate success against the Yankees, but they are extending that to Boston, and they are becoming a solid home team in the process. Kazmir has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start this season, and he already has two double-digit strikeout games.

So what do you shoot for? I ranked Kazmir at No. 3 on my list of top pitchers for the rest of the season. Personally, I think very highly of him. Owners drafted him right around pick 100, but that was knowing his injury status at the time. I always say to aim high when it comes to trades, and then negotiate down.

If you’re looking for outfield help, take a shot at Manny Ramirez or Carlos Lee. Both have proven production records that will provide 30-38 home runs and over 100 RBI. It’s even worth asking for Josh Hamilton, but he’s likely over-valued at this point and Kazmir alone may not do the job.

If you’re looking to better your infield, I’d look to Michael Young, Aramis Ramirez, Derek Lee, or Mark Teixeira. That may sound nuts, but the stats back it up.

Kazmir, if he remains healthy, will be one of the best pitchers in the remaining games. Ask for that kind of value in return for him.