Braves Looking to Trade Derek Lowe

Reports have it that the Braves are hoping to trade Derek Lowe this off-season.  For some reason, I find the idea of the Braves thinking they can find someone to take Lowe and his outrageous contract off their hands in this economy very amusing.

I thought signing Derek Lowe last off-season for four years at $60 million was a very poor decision.  I could certainly understand why it happened: the Yankees signed the top two free agent starters C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett to enormous contracts, and Lowe appeared to be the Best of the Rest.  Also, Lowe was represented by Scott Boras, who always seems to get top dollar for his free agents.

Nevertheless, giving Lowe that much money over that many years going into the season in which he would be 36 years old just wasn’t a wise decision.  Lowe really didn’t have a bad year in 2009.  Aside from the 15-10 record, he pitched 194.2 innings with 63 walks and 111 K’s.  His 4.67 ERA wasn’t pretty, but given that he was moving from Dodger Stadium to Turner Field, it pretty much matches the rest of his 2009 numbers and what you would reasonably expect from a good pitcher going from age 35 in 2008 to 36 in 2009.

The problem, of course, is that Lowe will be 37, 38 and 39 the next three seasons, and somebody (mostly the Braves, I suspect, even if they do find a trading partner) will have to pay him $15 million for each of those seasons.  I’d guestimate the odds of Lowe having a better season in any of the next three years than he had in 2009 at about one in three or two out of five.  He wasn’t worth $15 million in 2009, what with the Braves finishing a disappointing 3rd in the NL East, so the odds aren’t good he’ll be worth $15 million a year at any time in the future.

One of the problems the Braves have in looking for someone to bite on Lowe is that most of the teams dumb enough to make a trade this unsound (the Pirates, the Royals) don’t have the money to take on a contract like Lowe’s (or even two-thirds of it).  The Nats are the only team I can think of who have some money to spend and not enough sense to avoid a player like Lowe like the plague.  They’re also desparate for pitching, so if I were the Braves GM, I’d be on the phone with the Nats GM trying to convince him that Lowe is the “veteran presence” the young Nationals’ pitching staff needs.