Lincecum Wins Second Consecutive Cy Young

Tim Lincecum won his second consecutive Cy Young award in what was the third closest vote since the current scoring system went into effect in 1970.

Using a 5-3-1 system for NL pitchers ranked 1st through 3rd, Lincecum received 100 points, Chris Carpenter 94 and Adam Wainwright 90.  Wainwright actually received the most 1st place votes (12), compared to eleven 1st place votes for Lincecum and nine for Carpenter.

The voters clearly thought that Carpenter was the 2nd best pitcher in the NL.  He received 14 2nd place votes, compared to 12 for Lincecum, five for Wainwright and one 2nd place vote for Javier Vasquez (either a Braves’ fan or one of two sportswriters who apparently felt that Carpenter wasn’t one of the league’s best three pitchers since he didn’t pitch 200 innings).

The final vote strongly suggests that Carpenter would likely have won the Cy Young if he’d pitched at least 200 innings and almost certainly would have won if he’d pitched at least 210 innings.  That was certainly my biggest knock on Carpenter: a team’s staff ace, not to mention the league’s Cy Young winner, is expected to eat up the innings.

Carpenter was certainly great in 2009, but with only 28 starts, there were at least four games where the Cardinals had to make starts with their fifth starter, compared to Wainwright (34 starts) or Lincecum (32 starts).

Wainwright’s 12 first place votes suggests that there are still a substantial minority of voters who consider wins the most important stat for the Cy Young vote.  There aren’t a whole lot of differences in their other numbers, but Lincecum was clearly a little better in terms of ERA, Ks and WHIP, while Wainwright was only slightly better only in terms of innings pitched (233 to 225.1).

However, the fact that Wainwright received only five 2nd place votes and 15 3rd place votes suggests that a solid majority of the voting sportswriters have become much more sophisticated than they were thirty years ago, when wins and won-loss record were the most highly regarded Cy Young stats.

The Giants’ management group is probably seeing the sunny side of Lincecum’s recent marijuana possession plea right about now.  At least they now have something to come back with (“You’re the face of the franchise, but you’ve really damaged your image, especially with families!”) when Tim’s agent asks for a contract commenserate with consecutive Cy Young awards by age 25.  Even so, there’s pretty much no way Lincecum doesn’t get a record-setting extension to take him up to his free agency.