Panic Meter Steadied, but Iowa Is Trapped in Familiar Pre-NCAA Tournament Slump

Iowa is used to this feeling. And that's exactly the problem.

After a 12-2 start to the 2020-21 season, the Hawkeyes encountered the dreaded Franuary slide. They recently endured a 1-4 spell, dropping into the danger zone at 7-5 in Big Ten play and 13-6 overall. In early February, they fell outside of the AP Top 10 for the first time all season.

At that moment, Iowa's schedule still contained Rutgers, Michigan State, two matchups with No. 21 Wisconsin and one clash opposite both No. 4 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan. The most concerning part was history has showed it might not get better.

Now, let's back up: What exactly is Franuary?

Hawkeyes fans, maybe skip this painful section. Iowa's coach is Fran McCaffery, who's guided the program for 11 years now. Throughout his tenure, losses have often piled up after the calendar flipped to a new year—January and February.

For example, the 2013-14 team opened with a 19-6 record but was 20-12 at the end of the conference tournament. Two years later, Iowa plummeted from 19-4 to 21-10. Then in 2018-19, the Hawkeyes cratered to 22-11 after a 20-5 start. They never advanced past the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament in those seasons.

Even after accounting for the Big Ten's competition level, that's a miserable trend to have experienced.

Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

Fortunately for Iowa supporters, the 2020-21 team has avoided the worst-case fate of missing March Madness. Recent wins over Rutgers and Michigan State have steadied Iowa's perception.

Because of the quality opponents left, the Luka Garza-led roster is destined for the 68-team NCAA tournament field. B/R's Kerry Miller shared he "can't imagine a scenario" in which the Hawkeyes miss out. Eamonn Brennan of The Athletic and ESPN's John Gasaway have labeled Iowa as a lock too.

On one hand, that invites a sigh of relief. Can't win a national title unless you're in March Madness, and Iowa will be.

Conversely, the "lock" status does little to disguise the reality that Iowa has serious concerns to address. The Hawkeyes have five regular-season games and the Big Ten tournament to sharpen their offense and find a functional defense.

And, again, all while taking on high-level competition.

Wisconsin is a defensive-oriented squad that will challenge Garza, whose production has dipped lately, opening the National Player of the Year conversation. However, his contributions are the foundation of Iowa's upside.

Ohio State has a similar offense-driven profile to Iowa, but the Buckeyes have performed at a much higher level recently. It's an opportunity for Joe Wieskamp, Jordan Bohannon, CJ Fredrick and others to showcase the Hawkeyes' depth of scoring while trying to avoid, well, disastrous mistakes on defense.

Michigan boasts a top-10 offense and defense, per KenPom.com. Winning a championship means beating a team of the Wolverines' caliber in March Madness, so staying competitive here is vital.

In fairness, the definition of success for the Hawkeyes during this upcoming stretch is subjective.

Wins and losses are the obvious metric, and some viewers—both fans and analysts—judge primarily on outcomes. Others will monitor Iowa using the eyeball test or a numbers-based approach, and still more will combine all three. This is all an inexact science; there's no perfect way to evaluate performance.

Do the Hawkeyes need a 5-0 or 4-1 finish to quiet concerns? What happens if they're 3-2 or 2-3 down the stretch? Iowa has KenPom's top-ranked offense in the nation but is just 108th on defense; what sort of rise defensively is adequate? How does that compare to the eye test?

No matter how you analyze, Iowa has improvements to make, little time to actualize them and zero easy wins. Even 7-10 Penn State is a feisty opponent despite its record.

Locking in that March Madness bid is most important. Iowa will have a chance to make a run at a national title.

But if the Hawkeyes' familiar slide continues in this final stretch, 2020-21 will be yet another season that opened with great promise and broke down in Franuary.

Statistics courtesy of KenPom.com or Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.