Mets Trade Positions Francisco Lindor for Mookie Betts-Esque Boost in NL

In 2021, the role of Mookie Betts may be played by Francisco Lindor.

Granted, Lindor isn't in exactly the same boat now that Betts was in last February. Whereas the latter found himself with the Los Angeles Dodgers by way of a blockbuster trade from the Boston Red Sox, Lindor is now in New York after Cleveland dealt him and ace hurler Carlos Carrasco to the Mets on Thursday.

Lindor's story may nonetheless mirror Betts' from here on out, in that there's a real chance his year will involve a humongous contract extension, a brilliant season and, ultimately, World Series glory.

Francisco Lindor's Resume

• 27 years old
• No. 8 pick in the 2011 draft
• Made his MLB debut on June 14, 2015
• Four-time All-Star
• Two-time Gold Glover
• Two-time Silver Slugger
• Leads all shortstops with 28.7 rWAR since 2015
• Could earn as much as $21.5 million through arbitration in 2021
• Slated to become a free agent after '21 season

Lindor Was the Best Shortstop in MLB...Until He Wasn't

It didn't take long for Lindor to lurch into stardom after he joined Cleveland in 2015. He hit .313 with 12 home runs, 12 stolen bases and 4.0 rWAR in only 99 games, a performance that earned him runner-up honors in the American League Rookie of the Year voting.

From there, his star only got brighter.

All Lindor did between 2016 and 2019 was rack up an .841 OPS with 30 homers and 20 steals per year. He compiled enough rWAR to qualify as one of the five best players in the majors:

• 1. Mike Trout: 35.5
• 2. Mookie Betts: 33.4
• 3. Nolan Arenado: 25.0
• 4. Jose Altuve: 24.0
• 5. Francisco Lindor: 23.6

All the while, Lindor hardly wallowed in obscurity. He played on baseball's biggest stage when Cleveland met the Chicago Cubs in the 2016 World Series. And given that Mr. Smile was as much his persona as his nickname, it's little wonder he had one of MLB's most popular jerseys in 2017, 2018 and 2019.

Then came 2020.

Though he played in all 60 of Cleveland's games during the pandemic-shortened season, Lindor posted career lows for average, slugging and OPS. He likewise had little to contribute in the playoffs, going 1-for-8 as Cleveland got swept out of the Wild Card Series by the New York Yankees.

Surely, this and Lindor's looming free agency partially explain—i.e., the Cleveland front office's valuations also deserve questioning—why the Mets could get him and Carrasco for such a reasonable four-player package.

Now, all the Mets have to do is hope Lindor's change of scenery makes a difference.

Why Lindor Indeed Needed a Change of Scenery

Lindor's offensive struggles in 2020 were largely a case of bad luck. To wit, his strikeout rate and assorted batted-ball metrics were still above-average when the season came to a close.

And yet, there was also more to the story.

Beyond not playing like his usual self, Lindor's Mr. Smile act also seemed to take a break last season. Per the man himself, it didn't help that he had nobody to perform for as the coronavirus pandemic forced the stands at Progressive Field and elsewhere to remain empty.

"It sucks playing with no fans," Lindor said in October, via Zack Meisel of The Athletic. "It's terrible. That's the only way I can put it. Fans make the game fun."

Aaron Doster/Associated Press

Meanwhile, Lindor's contract status may only have compounded his state of mind. Though he and Cleveland's brass talked about an extension that would have kept him in town beyond 2021, he called off talks in March so he could "focus on winning."

In actuality, the situation might have opened an irreversible rift in his focus. As Terry Pluto of Cleveland.com wrote: "He's had an eye on free agency and the monster money it would bring for years. He also knew that deal would not happen in Cleveland. When a star player doesn't think his team will pay him fair market value, it can negatively impact his attitude. Some with the Tribe thought Lindor was more distant this season."

Though Cleveland could have and arguably should have kept Lindor for one last hurrah in 2021, the club effectively did him a solid by ushering him to a fresh start with the Mets.

Lindor Is Now That Much Closer to Fortune and Glory

Betts was also coming off something of a down year and mired in an uncertain contract situation when he arrived with the Dodgers last February. It didn't take long, though, for the Dodgers to go all-in on him and benefit accordingly.

In July, with his free agency only months away, the Dodgers inked Betts to a 12-year, $365 million contract extension. The weight off his mind was obvious as he subsequently enjoyed an MVP-caliber regular season and a stellar postseason en route to winning his second World Series ring in three years.

If the Mets want to walk the same path with Lindor, it wouldn't hurt to start by paying the man.

There's little question the money for a megadeal is there. Once ownership of the team passed from the Wilpon family to Steve Cohen in November, the Mets became the property of by far the richest owner in Major League Baseball.

While the Mets have the means, ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted that Lindor ought to have the motivation to do a deal now:

If and when the Mets approach him about an extension, Lindor will also have to consider the exciting trajectory the franchise is on right now.

Though the Mets went a disappointing 26-34 in 2020, they did so with an offense that was an MLB-best 22 percent better than average. Robinson Cano is missing from the mix following his 162-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, but Lindor and fellow newcomer James McCann are more than capable of picking up the slack.

On the mound, the Mets rotation is now headed by a two-time Cy Young Award winner (Jacob deGrom) and two fellow aces (Marcus Stroman and Carrasco). With Edwin Diaz, Trevor May and Miguel Castro locked into late-inning duty, they could also have one of baseball's top bullpens in 2021.

The big picture is about as pretty as it seems. According to FanGraphs, only the Dodgers and San Diego Padres are projected to produce more WAR than the Mets this year. That amounts to a path not just to the top of the National League East but also to the World Series.

Naturally, playing in New York also has its perks on the exposure front.

If and when fans are permitted to return to Citi Field, Lindor will be playing in front of much larger crowds than he was used to in Cleveland, which typically ranked in the bottom half of the AL in attendance. Hundreds of thousands more will be watching from home on a daily basis.

Of course, none of this equals an obligation for Lindor to stick in New York beyond 2021. He may deem it best to do what he can with the Mets this season and then gladly enter the free-agent market in search of an appropriately sized megadeal.

But given just how strongly the "right place, right time" vibe is reverberating right now, it wouldn't be the least bit surprising if Lindor and the Mets end up sticking together for a long time.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.