Padres' Trade for Blake Snell Is a Game-Changer for the NL West...and AL East

The dead of Major League Baseball's winter has been broken, courtesy of the San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays.

Late on Sunday night, those two clubs came together on a five-player trade that will send 2018 American League Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell to San Diego. 

In doing so, the Padres sent a warning shot across the bows of their competition in the National League West, including the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Meanwhile in the American League East, the Rays' rivals ought to be smelling blood in the water.

The Trade

Padres get:

• LHP Blake Snell: 28 years old and signed through 2023 for $40.8 million

Rays get:

• RHP Luis Patino: 21 years old and MLB.com's No. 23 prospect
• C Francisco Mejia: 25 years old and formerly a top-100 prospect
• RHP Cole Wilcox: 21 years old and formerly San Diego's No. 7 prospect
• C Blake Hunt: 22 years old and formerly San Diego's No. 14 prospect

What Snell Brings to the Padres

Even after losing Mike Clevinger (Tommy John surgery) for the 2021 season, the Padres had a darn good foursome of starters lined up in Dinelson Lamet, Zach Davies, Chris Paddack and Adrian Morejon.

In Snell, they now have a new No. 1 to round out their rotation.

He's only two years removed from breaking out as an ace with a 1.89 ERA, 221 strikeouts and 112 hits allowed in 180.2 innings. Even in "regressing" over the last two years, he's still posted a sturdy 3.96 ERA while whiffing 12 batters per nine innings.

Snell thrives on electric stuff, including a four-seam fastball that averages 95.1 mph with rising action. He also boasts two nasty breaking balls in his slider and curveball, which combined to hold opposing hitters to an .088 average in 2020.

The catch with Snell is that he has yet to prove himself as a workhorse. He's averaged only 5.1 innings per start for his career, and he has logged at least seven innings only 13 times out of his 108 total outings.

Yet that could change now that Snell is no longer on the Rays, who've generally demanded few innings from their starters since 2018. Especially after he prematurely got the hook in Game 6 of the World Series, Snell himself might be coming to San Diego with a chip on his shoulder regarding his future workload.

If the Padres lengthen his leash accordingly, there will be little keeping him from contending for additional Cy Youngs.

What the Snell Trade Means for the Dodgers and the NL West

The Padres were tied atop the NL West as of August 1, but they never seriously challenged for first place after that, as the Dodgers racked up an MLB-best 43-17 record. Of course, the Dodgers also swept the Padres in the National League Division Series.

Yet the actual talent gap between the Dodgers and Padres was never that wide this past season.

Beyond going 37-23 in their own right, the Padres had an even better expected record based on how many runs they scored and allowed. Led by Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., they were an elite team offensively (third in OPS+) and defensively (first in outs above average). Likewise, their hurlers ranked seventh in ERA and fifth in strikeouts per nine innings.

Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

With Snell now aboard and uber-prospect MacKenzie Gore slated to join a homegrown core that already includes Paddack and Tatis at some point in 2021, the Padres look ready to retain their place among MLB's leading contenders next season.

While the Dodgers also have a spot in those ranks, they now face pressure to do something to maintain the buffer that existed between them and the Padres in 2020. 

Apart from their trade for one-time All-Star closer Corey Knebel, the Dodgers have done nothing to strengthen their roster for 2021. That's a problem, given that their list of free agents includes hitters Justin Turner, Joc Pederson and Enrique Hernandez and relievers Blake Treinen, Jake McGee and Pedro Baez.

Elsewhere in the NL West, none of the San Francisco Giants (29-31), Colorado Rockies (26-34) or Arizona Diamondbacks (25-35) finished above .500 in 2020. And right now, each of the three might be wary of committing resources to changing that next season.

The Giants could, but they look like more of a threat to spend big money next winter after their books clear up. The Diamondbacks seem content to bet on what they already have in-house, while the Rockies may well begin a rebuild with trades of Nolan Arenado and/or Trevor Story.

This is to say that the NL West will likely be a two-horse race between the Padres and Dodgers once again in 2021. And because Snell is sticking around through at least 2023, that may be the case for a while.

The Rays Just Opened Up the AL East

Despite beginning the season with MLB's third-lowest payroll, the Rays paced the American League with a 40-20 record in 2020. Their pitching, which yielded MLB's third-lowest ERA, was the driving force behind their success.

It's precisely because of Tampa Bay's budgetary limitations that Snell will be pitching for San Diego from now on. These limitations also contributed to fellow starter Charlie Morton signing with Atlanta.

The sting of these losses is undeniable. For while Patino and free-agent signee Michael Wacha are candidates to fill the voids left by Snell and Morton in 2021, the former has yet to establish himself, and it's been years since the latter resembled a top-of-the-rotation starter.

After finishing behind the Rays in 2020, the New York Yankees (33-27) and Toronto Blue Jays (32-28) should take note. With the right moves, either or both could leapfrog the Rays in the AL East's power structure.

Heck, even the Boston Red Sox might be able to do so despite their 24-36 finish in 2020. Combined with potential comebacks from J.D. Martinez, Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale, they might have a path to the top of the AL East in 2021 if they address their needs at center field, second base and on the mound.

The bright side amid all this for the Rays is that their farm system, which was arguably the best in baseball to begin with, is now even deeper after the Snell trade. But since the benefits of that will more likely be felt later than sooner, their glory days of 2020 could become ancient history in a hurry.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.