Rookie of the Year Awards

I haven’t really spent a lot of time thinking about baseball’s best rookies this year, and I don’t really have any strong feelings about the choices the voters made.  Chris Coghlin hit .321, had a .390 OBP and an .850 OPS, all while playing a full season for the Marlins, which are sufficiently good reasons to make him the NL Rookie of the Year.

Pretty much the same for Andrew Bailey.  He had 26 saves and an ERA under 2.00, which is terrific for a rookie thrust into the closing role.  I also like the seasons second and third place finishers Elvis Andris and Rick Porcello had.

Going forward, I was thinking that Andrew McCutchen was the NL rookie I’d most like to have on my team.  However, after checking fansgraphs’ estimate of defensive performance and minor league hitting performance, I think that Colby Rasmus is probably the better bet.

According to fangraphs, Rasmus was the second best defender in centerfield in the NL in 2009, behind only Mike Cameron.  McCutchen ranked a hair below average, and Dexter Fowler (a lot of good rookie centerfielders in the NL this year) was ranked the worst defender in centerfielder in the league.

Rasmus and McCutchen are also both a year younger than Fowler (actually, more like six months).  Rasmus had a much better career minor league career OPS than McCutchen, so I think Rasmus is the better bet going forward.

Among the remaining rookies who received ROTY votes, I like Tommy Hansen the best.  He’s the same age (23 in 2010) as Rasmus and McCutchen and had fantastic minor league numbers.  I don’t like him as much going forward as Rasmus or McCutchen only because pitchers are more prone to injury than position players.

Padres SS Everth Cabrera is also 23 next year, but he’s harder to predict going forward than Rasmus or McCutchen because Cabrera’s only significant minor league playing time came at the A level.  In other words, his 2009 major league numbers could be a fluke.

I’d rank Coghlin about even with Cabrera going forward, given that Coghlin is two years older.  The best of the rest is probably the Diamondbacks  Gerardo Perra.  He’ll also be 23 next year, but didn’t hit enough for a leftfielder in 2009 (.729 OPS).

J. A. Happ, Casey McGehee and Randy Wells were all 26 in 2009.  26 year old rookies generally don’t go on to have great major league careers, no matter how well they played during their rookie seasons.  The major exceptions seem to be at catcher and among power pitchers who finally achieve major league control.

Garrett Jones will be 29 next season, and he had a 2009 campaign that is completely aberrant in comparison to his long minor league career.  In other words, the odds are mighty slim that he’ll ever have another major league season as good as 2009.  It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s trying his luck in Japan’s major leagues by 2012.

In the American League, the obvious choice going forward is Rangers SS Elvis Andrus.  He’s only 20 next year, and fangraphs ranked his defense at SS behind only light-hitting Cesar Izturis.

Andrus minor league batting numbers are not impressive, but that has more to due with the fact that he was consistently the youngest player in the leagues he played (I’m not sure about that, but I doubt there were a lot of other 18 year olds playing in the A+ California League in 2007 or 19 year olds in the AA Texas League in 2008).

Absent injury, Andrus looks sure to be a great player for many years.  In fact, he’s probably a fair bet to challenge his 2009 mentor’s record for games played at SS (Omar Vizquel is now the all-time leader).

There aren’t a lot of players who have established themselves as major league-caliber shortstops on both offense and defense by the time they reach their 20th birthdays.  By way of example, Andrus is further along than Alex Rodriguez was at the same age.  In fairness to ARod, he hit .358 with 54 doubles and 36 HRs in 1996, the year in which he turned 21.

I doubt that Andrus is going to come anywhere close to those numbers in 2010, but he doesn’t have to to become a great player.

After Andrus, I like Gordon Beckham.  He’ll be 23 next year, and he’s a former No. 8 pick in the 2008 draft.  He shot through the minors and should become a big star.

One player I’m not particularly enamoured with is Rick Porcello.  He posted only 89 Ks in 170.2 IP this year, after posting only 72 Ks in 125 IP in the A+ Florida State League last year.  He’s young enough to improve his strikeout numbers considerably over the next few seasons, but pitchers with Ks-to-IP ratios that low do not tend to be consistent.

Another thing is that he threw a lot of innings in 2009 for a 20 year old, and he will likely pitch a lot of innings the next couple of seasons as one of the Tigers’ rotation anchors.  He’s got a contract which paid him more than $2 milli0n in 2009 (according to ESPN), so the Tigers have an incentive to try to get the most out of him now, whether or not his arm is developed enough for the strain of high annual IP totals.

I would much rather have the A’s Brett Anderson going forward than Porcello, even if Anderson is a year older, and Porcello had a better 2009 campaign taking into account their home pitching parks.  Anderson struck out 150 men in 175.1 major league innings pitched this year, and struck out 243 in 225.1 career minor league innings pitched.  Anderson’s walks-to-IP ratios are also better than Porcello’s in spite of the fact that Porcello wasn’t striking anyone out.

I’d also rather have Andrew Bailey going forward than Porcello, although it’s close, given that Porcello is a starter.  Although Bailey will be 26 in 2010, his Ks-to-IP and Ks-to-BBs ratios were terrific this year.  Bailey also has strong numbers in the minors, where he was used primarily as a starting pitcher.  In fact, his major league numbers were far better than his minor league career record, almost certainly because he benefited enormously from the switch to pitching in relief.

The last player to receive votes for AL ROTY is the Rays’ Jeff Niemann.  His numbers look almost exactly like J.A. Happ’s right down the line.  The only major difference I see is that Happ is a lefty and Niemann throws right.  Like Happ, Niemann will be 27 next year, which makes him a poor candidate to become a future superstar.