BS Meter on Latest NBA Draft and Trade Rumors
James Harden is still a member of the Houston Rockets.
Apologies for being so blunt. It just feels like we need to get that out of the way because he and H-Town have hijacked the predraft and free-agency rumor mill.
But they are not the only subjects of our daily trip down League Sources Said Lane. The Atlanta Hawks might be up to something. Maybe even two things. The Boston Celtics and Gordon Hayward send their regards. We may also have some clarity on the unambiguously ambiguous question of which player will be selected with the No. 1 pick.
These are exciting times, and it is important to indulge them with an air of reason. That's why we have our handy-dandy B.S. meter. As ever, this gauge is not an indictment of the validity of the reports themselves but a barometer for how seriously the scenarios laid out and the causes behind them should be taken.
The Latest on James Harden
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Should you brace yourself for an imminent James Harden trade?
Maybe.
But also, maybe not.
Multiple league sources told Front Office Sports' Anthony Puccio that the Rockets have a "verbal agreement" on a deal that would land Harden with the Brooklyn Nets, his ride-or-die destination, apparently.
Terms of the potential blockbuster were not disclosed, but Puccio wrote that "league sources believe the [Nets] would have to package 'the house'—which would revolve around up-and-coming star Caris LeVert plus the likelihood of players like Spencer Dinwiddie, Jarrett Allen and Nicolas Claxton. League sources also added that Brooklyn will have to surrender an array of first-round picks in the coming years for any of this to come to fruition."
Meanwhile, those close to the Rockets are singing a different tune. As ESPN's Tim MacMahon wrote:
"The Houston Rockets feel no pressure to trade James Harden or Russell Westbrook, regardless of the superstars' strong desire for fresh starts with different franchises, and are 'willing to get uncomfortable' as training camp opens and the season begins, sources told ESPN.
"The Rockets' front office, led by recently promoted general manager Rafael Stone, remains adamant that neither player will be traded unless a team meets the asking price."
How's that for a battle of public leverage?
Seriously, though: These situations are complicated. The Rockets, for all their self-sabotage, are being tasked with soliciting offers for a top-five player they planned to have at least through next season—and probably for a few years more, if not for the rest of his career. This messy breakup was never going to be easy or especially expeditious.
Harden has accelerated Houston's undoing by setting his sights on the Nets. That matters. It does not dictate the entire terms of engagement. The Rockets have an obligation to field other offers, particularly if they're looking for a package featuring high-end prospects younger than 26-year-old LeVert. Harden's status is his leverage, and it will get him out of Houston. With two guaranteed years left on his deal before a 2022-23 player option, it doesn't assure him the opportunity to choose his landing spot.
Letting this soap opera leak into the regular season isn't ideal, but it's likely among the least of the Rockets' worries. Maybe they still believe they can salvage the relationship with Harden. Maybe they'll try turning Westbrook into an alternative star or deeper supporting cast (more on this soon).
Or maybe they just recognize this singular decision will map out the next half-decade-plus of their franchise, and they care more about getting it right than the onrush of awkwardness and rumors and memes that will follow them into the regular season if Harden isn't moved posthaste.
B.S. Meter: Harden is a goner. The Nets are a serious threat to land him, but I'd bet against a semi-immediate resolution to this saga.
Anthony Edwards Gaining Steam as No. 1 Pick
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Committing to any one scenario at the top of this draft is a no-no. Almost anything is in play.
The Minnesota Timberwolves could select LaMelo Ball. They could take Anthony Edwards. James Wiseman doesn't feel like a legitimate option with Karl-Anthony Towns already in tow, but they could trade down to No. 3 if the Charlotte Hornets want to take aim at their center of the future.
They could move down even further. Dealing the pick for a return built around win-now assets rather than draft compensation doesn't feel particularly likely, but it also isn't outside the realm of possibility.
As of now, though, the Timberwolves might be leaning toward taking Edwards.
Sources told Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman ahead of his final mock draft that they're "more confident he'll be the choice." ESPN's Jonathan Givony also moved Edwards into the No. 1 spot on his board. That doesn't make Minnesota's decision fait accompli. But these 11th-hour adjustments to mocks that initially had Ball as the top pick can't mean nothing.
It might be more of a stretch to believe the Timberwolves keep this selection than to accept that Edwards is the guy if they do. Picking first overall isn't about prioritizing fit, but when razor-thin scouting-report margins seem to separate the could-be-consensus top-three prospects, "best player available" logic loses some of its zest.
Ball feels like the choice if the Timberwolves are drafting solely for upside or potential trade value down the line. His jumper will be his swing skill, but someone so comfortable firing off the dribble cannot be billed as a non-shooter. If he shoots league average from deep on a steady diet of difficult looks, you have a 6'8" ball-handler with potentially ridiculous vision driving your offense.
That outlook doesn't mesh too well with D'Angelo Russell. (Towns works with everyone.) And while Russell, of all people, shouldn't be the reason Minnesota passes on Ball, burning the No. 1 pick on an awkward fit with the intention of dealing him or your current lead guard later isn't Teflon thinking.
Unless the Timberwolves believe LaMelo has more to offer away from the ball, or that they'd rather not have Russell as their offensive engine, why not give Edwards a longer look? He poses a lot of the same fit issues as a multilevel scorer used to working with the ball in his hands and on a carte blanche shot selection, but he has the size and lateral burst to develop into a real defensive nuisance.
Heavily criticizing his feel for the game seems a tad unfair. He averaged more than 19 points per game in the SEC. His sub-30 percent clip on two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com, is no doubt alarming. But he wouldn't be the focal point in Minnesota, and his shot quality should improve by virtue of better team spacing and work away from the ball.
None of which makes him the pick. This draft doesn't have the pick. That's the point. It theoretically could be one of three players. Insofar as the Timberwolves keep No. 1, Edwards merely registers as the most sensible option.
B.S. Meter: Smoke screens are everywhere right now. This doesn't seem like one.
Atlanta Making a Play for Gordon Hayward
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Something's afoot in Atlanta. And in Boston, too.
Gordon Hayward and the Celtics agreed to push back the deadline on his $34.2 million player option for the purpose, it seems, of preserving mutual flexibility. And that mutual flexibility might include facilitating his move to the Hawks, according to Yahoo Sports' Chris Haynes.
To what end Atlanta needs Boston is unclear. Hayward can be shipped out via sign-and-trade, but the Hawks have more cap space than any other team, topping out at almost $44 million in spending power. They can sign him outright.
The Celtics have ample reason to broker a sign-and-trade even if they're not receiving actual compensation. Creating a huge trade exception is never a bad idea. But that doesn't benefit the Hawks unless Boston sends them another asset—or they don't want Hayward on a multiyear contract and this is an opt-in-and-trade situation.
Does the relative ambiguity at play lend itself to complicated three- or four-team blockbusters in which the Celtics bag another impact player or move up in the draft? Maybe. We'll know soon enough.
Atlanta's interest in Hayward is what's most intriguing in and of itself. Generating high-powered offense was a slog last year even with Trae Young. It proved impossible when he caught a breather. The Hawks scored just 99.5 points per 100 possessions in the time he spent off the floor (third percentile).
Landing Hayward would help clean up both sides of the fence. Young would be given freedom to roam off the ball when they play together, and the offense would have a viable secondary creator to pilot the show whenever he goes to the bench.
The price point could still be an issue. Hayward isn't turning down $34.2 million without the promise of another multiyear windfall. The Hawks needn't flinch. This isn't the market to go big-game hunting, but an over-the-top investment in Hayward for the next two or three years wouldn't cripple them if it goes belly up. They should be all systems go.
B.S. Meter: Buy the Hawks' interest. Sell that this delay in Hayward's decision is about a sign-and-trade alone.
The Hawks Are Interested in Rondo, Who Has Eyes for the Clippers
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A source told SirusXM NBA Radio's Frank Isola that the Hawks are prepared to throw a "significant offer" at Rajon Rondo, who is apparently interested in joining the Los Angeles Clippers.
I mean, sure?
Rondo doodling the Clippers' name inside hearts is a given. They're a championship contender that could use a pass-first playmaker. The fit is clear and eminently more palatable to him if they're slinging most or all of their $5.7 million taxpayer mid-level exception.
And what better way than to drum up interest from the Clippers than by flirting with the league's top cap-space destination?
This isn't to say the Hawks aren't looking at Rondo. They need someone to alleviate Trae Young's ball-handling burden and help them navigate minutes without him. Rondo can do that.
But a "significant offer"? You have the capacity to chisel out $40-plus million in space, and your big swing is going to be Rondo? Really?
Yes, Rondo proved ultravaluable to the Los Angeles Lakers' championship push. Great. The Hawks aren't a team ready to focus on just the 16 games necessary to win a title.
More than that, Rondo isn't necessarily the antidote to any non-star minutes on offense. The Lakers' half-court efficiency placed in the 21st percentile when he played without LeBron James, and it was only a hair better (38th percentile) when those stretches included Anthony Davis. The Hawks' no-Trae stints will only be harder to survive. They need someone more equipped to handle them than 34-year-old regular-season Rondo.
B.S. Meter: Don't expect Atlanta to have goo-goo eyes for Rondo.
John Wall-for-Russell Westbrook Swap in Play?
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Editor's Note: The following text originally appeared in the Nov. 17 edition of our NBA rumors BS Meter.
Admit it: You've put John Wall-for-Russell Westbrook into the trade machine. Don't be shy. Or ashamed. It's OK.
Washington and Houston have done it, too.
The Rockets and Wizards have reportedly discussed a star-for-star deal, according The Athletic's Shams Charania. Nothing is currently close, and Houston wants more assets as part of the deal, but the framework has at least been bandied about.
In the hopes that this is a safe space, I'm going to be honest: This...makes some sense. And not just because it's essentially an even dollar-for-dollar swap.
Operate under the assumption that the Rockets aren't moving James Harden, and a healthy Wall profiles as a better running mate. He can be just as ball-dominant, but he lives to table-set. If you're going to siphon possessions from Harden to any extent, however minimal, it might as well be to someone who gives him more of a reason to get moving—or to do anything at all—away from the rock.
Wall does pose some of the same spacing issues compared to Westbrook, only they're not as stark. He has three years in which he's cleared 35 percent shooting from long distance; Westbrook has none. Wall is also converting 38.7 percent of his catch-and-fire triples over the past three seasons in which he's played (2015-16, 2016-17, 2017-18). Westbrook is knocking down just 31.6 percent of his spot-up treys since 2017-18.
That doesn't render this an easy decision for the Rockets.
Beyond Harden's unsettled future, they have to reconcile Wall's health. He hasn't played in an NBA game since December 2018 after suffering a left Achilles injury, one of the most devastating setbacks in sports. Wall is more than this athleticism; his playmaking is more feel and vision than physical tool. But his end-to-end burst is part of what made him so special. Losing any of that drastically alters his functional value.
It gets easier for the Rockets to roll the dice if they're getting an asset or two in return. Something like Troy Brown Jr., Isaac Bonga, a protected future first or also getting off Eric Gordon's contract should go a long way.
But forking over Wall-plus-stuff isn't exactly a mindless decision for the Wizards. Westbrook has his own murky health bill, including multiple knee surgeries, and shrinks the floor even more on offense. Still, he's never missed roughly two years, and floor balance isn't so much of a concern when Bradley Beal's stardom is plug-and-play and a couple of your bigs (Thomas Bryant, Moe Wagner) already chuck threes.
This really comes down to whether Washington believes Westbrook more immediately optimizes its window with Beal. He's scheduled for free agency in 2022 (player option). Vultures are already circling. Laboring through another transition year while Wall regains his bearings isn't going to help matters.
The Rockets don't have that kind of time themselves. They're also dealing with two stars who they know want out. What's another even-money risk if it maybe, possibly, potentially stands to improve the on-court production around a disgruntled Harden?
B.S. Meter: Nothing smells funny here.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by B/R's Adam Fromal.
