Bowl Predictions 2020: Updated Playoff CFP Projections Heading into Week 10
One of the biggest questions in college football entering November revolves around the No. 4 seed in the College Football Playoff.
Clemson, Alabama and Ohio State established their dominance in the first two months of the season, but no program has grabbed hold of the fourth spot yet.
Notre Dame has a chance to stake its claim to a playoff berth Saturday when it hosts a Clemson team without Trevor Lawrence.
Even if the Fighting Irish win on home soil in Week 10, they would likely have to play Clemson again in the ACC Championship Game.
A similar scenario likely awaits Georgia, the best one-loss team, after its loss to Alabama. If the Bulldogs beat Florida on Saturday, they can cruise to a SEC Championship Game berth and set up a rematch with the Crimson Tide.
Texas A&M, Cincinnati and BYU are among the potential contenders that could slide into the No. 4 seed if the ACC and SEC Championship Game losers have two defeats.
The Pac-12 may also produce a playoff contender in Oregon, and after Oklahoma State's loss cost the Big 12 greatly, the path may be clear for the Ducks to emerge as a fourth Power Five champion.
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
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A case can be made to put Alabama over Clemson in any rankings because of how dominant the Crimson Tide looked in Week 10.
Alabama added more misery to Mike Leach's first season at Mississippi State by winning 41-0 at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
DeVonta Smith thrived in the No. 1 wide receiver role vacated by Jaylen Waddle's season-ending injury and put up 203 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 11 catches.
The Crimson Tide have two Heisman Trophy contenders in quarterback Mac Jones and running back Najee Harris. Alabama's stars should continue to produce high totals with LSU and Kentucky next up on the schedule.
No. 24 Auburn (4-2) is likely Alabama's toughest remaining opponent because of their rivalry. A road trip to Arkansas after the Iron Bowl could be tricky because of the turnaround the Razorbacks have gone through under Sam Pittman.
Nick Saban's side should be favored in its four regular-season contests and a potential SEC Championship Game against Georgia, which it has beaten three straight times.
If Alabama remains dominant, it could secure the No. 1 overall seed and earn a semifinal matchup in SEC country at the Sugar Bowl.
At the moment, Notre Dame appears to be the strongest contender for the No. 4 seed, and it may take advantage of a Lawrence-less Clemson at home on Saturday night.
Brian Kelly's side cruised through Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech by outscoring them 76-16, and it has had little trouble with its ACC schedule so far.
If the Irish beat Clemson, they will move up in the rankings, but as we saw with Georgia, a close loss to a Top Two program may also keep them in the top five.
As long as Notre Dame does not get blown out on home soil, it should remain in the playoff mix and earn a second shot at Clemson.
If the ACC teams split games and Alabama beats Georgia twice, Notre Dame could have the best claim to the No. 4 seed over Group of Five teams and Oregon out of a weaker Power Five league.
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson
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Ohio State proved on Saturday that is far and away the class of the Big Ten.
Justin Fields and Co. ran right through the Penn State defense and claimed a 13-point victory at Beaver Stadium.
The Buckeyes have two double-digit wins, and Fields added to his Heisman resume with 594 passing yards and six touchdowns versus Nebraska and Penn State.
Although Rutgers, Maryland and Indiana have shown improvements in 2020, the Buckeyes should still have an easy time with each of them.
Just like Alabama, Ohio State's toughest remaining regular-season game could come against its rival Michigan on December 12. However, the Wolverines have had trouble beating the Buckeyes under Jim Harbaugh.
If Ohio State goes undefeated, it would have a claim to the No. 1 seed, but the likely landing spot is No. 2 behind Alabama, which would put it in the tougher of the two semifinals.
Clemson may present the selection committee with one of its toughest decisions, as it would have to judge the Tigers with and without Lawrence.
Of course, the Tigers can put any of that concern to bed by beating Notre Dame on the road with D.J. Uiagalelei at the helm. Uiagalelei helped the Tigers come from behind in the second half Saturday to beat Boston College.
If Dabo Swinney's side tightens up its defensive play against Notre Dame, it could give Lawrence's replacement the best chance possible to earn a road win. It allowed 275 total yards and 28 first-half points against the Eagles.
If the Tigers produce a performance similar to its second-half shutout from Saturday, they could avoid a challenge from Notre Dame, remain undefeated and wait for Lawrence to get healthy.
However, if Clemson falls to Notre Dame but then beats the Irish in the ACC Championship Game—especially with Lawrence back under center—it could find itself in a good spot to land in the playoff.
A second loss from Georgia against Alabama, a defeat by Oregon and any struggles by the Group of Five contenders would aid a potential one-loss Clemson's playoff hopes as well.
New Year's 6
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Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M
Peach Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs. BYU
Orange Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Florida
If the SEC does not put multiple teams in the playoff, it should have a slew of programs in the New Year's Six.
Georgia would likely receive one of the eight bowl spots if its only two defeats come against Alabama, while Texas A&M could be a one-defeat team on the edge of the Top Five if it wins out.
Even if Florida has two losses to Texas A&M and Georgia, it could make an argument for itself to land in a New Year's Six bowl.
After Oklahoma State suffered its first loss Saturday, the Big 12 could be stuck with a single berth in the New Year's Six that goes to its champion. Oklahoma State is the lone one-loss team in the conference.
Oregon is expected to be the class of the Pac-12, but maneuvering up from No. 14 with no ranked teams on the schedule could be a difficult task.
Cincinnati and BYU have outside chances to make the playoff, but they need to remain undefeated and hope that a few upsets happen in November and December.
The path was made clearer for the Bearcats and Cougars with Oklahoma State's loss, but they still help from the opponents of the top ACC, SEC and Big Ten teams.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.
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