Ideal Candidates for College Football Teams Most Likely to Be Changing Coaches

As the 2020 college football season presses forward, a number of high-profile coaching seats are growing increasingly hot with each passing week.

At the same time, there are some Group of Five head coaches making serious noise on a national level and an always-rich crop of high-level coordinators waiting for their shot to lead a program.

With that in mind, we set out to identify the best potential fits for Power Five football teams most likely to be changing coaches this offseason.

For now, the Pac-12 is excluded from this conversation since its season hasn't started yet, but Clay Helton (USC), Kevin Sumlin (Arizona) and Chip Kelly (UCLA) all have a lot to prove once things finally kick off.

There are also myriad reasons to believe Will Muschamp is going to keep his job at South Carolina, despite a 2-3 start from the Gamecocks and a .500 overall record in his time as head coach, so that job isn't included, either.

What remains are five potential openings and five candidates ready to prove themselves.

Auburn: Hugh Freeze

Associated Press

Current Coach: Gus Malzahn

Buyout: $21,450,000

Since guiding Auburn to a national championship appearance in his first year as head coach in 2013, Gus Malzahn has led the Tigers to a top-10 finish in the final AP poll just once in six seasons.

A 10-4 finish in 2017 was their only other season with double-digit wins, and a disappointing 2-2 start this season sent them tumbling down the rankings and out of the Top 25 entirely.

An impressive win over a disappointing LSU team this past Saturday has them back in the Top 25 at No. 24 with a 4-2 record, but for a team that began the season with lofty expectations, that simply doesn't cut it.

The hefty buyout figure that Malzahn carries is obviously a hurdle, but it's time for a change.

In just its second year at the FBS level last season, Liberty cruised to an 8-5 record and a win over Georgia Southern in the AutoNation Cure Bowl with Hugh Freeze at the helm.

This season, the Flames are off to a 6-0 start and cracked the Top 25 this week. Ironically, it's an Auburn transfer in Malik Willis leading the way at quarterback.

While Freeze enjoyed a solid five-year run at Ole Miss, his time there will be remembered for a booster recruiting scandal that led to 33 wins being stripped from the school.

Has he earned a second chance?

Based solely on his recruiting and coaching ability, Freeze is one of the best names on the market, and he could be a breath of fresh air for a stagnant Auburn program.

Michigan: Brent Venables

Richard Shiro/Associated Press

Current Coach: Jim Harbaugh

Buyout: $6,367,929

Is the Michigan job attractive enough to lure Brent Venables away from Clemson, where he's one of the highest-paid coordinators in college football?

It just might be.

After a 27-24 loss to Michigan State on Saturday, the seat under Jim Harbaugh has gotten awfully toasty. In his five seasons at the helm, Harbaugh has won 10 games three times, but he's just 1-4 in bowl games and has failed to turn the Wolverines into legitimate title contenders.

Given their recruiting pull, hiring Venables might be all it takes to turn Michigan into a defensive powerhouse. It's difficult to argue with his results as defensive coordinator at Clemson the past two seasons:

• 2018: 285.9 yards/g (fifth in FBS), 13.1 points/g (first in FBS)
• 2019: 288.3 yards/g (sixth in FBS), 13.5 points/g (third in FBS)

Some of that stems from playing in a less-than-stacked ACC, but they also shut down Notre Dame (three points), Alabama (16 points) and Ohio State (23 points) in the College Football Playoff during that span.

Cincinnati head coach Luke Fickell might be Michigan's first choice to replace Harbaugh, but his Ohio State roots and the strong interest he is likely to generate across the college football landscape could make Venables a better target.

If Harbaugh wants to save his job, he'll need to finish strong, and the remaining schedule looks daunting with a road game against Indiana and home matchups with Wisconsin and Penn State before the regular season finale in Columbus against Ohio State.

Syracuse: Billy Napier

Brian Blanco/Associated Press

Current Coach: Dino Babers

Buyout: Unknown

Dino Babers is running out of time to prove the 2018 season was not a fluke.

After back-to-back 4-8 seasons to begin his tenure at Syracuse, things looked to be trending in the right direction when the Orange went 10-3 in 2018 and beat West Virginia in the Camping World Bowl to finish No. 15 in the final AP poll.

They began last season ranked No. 22 in the nation but suffered a brutal 63-20 loss to Maryland in Week 2 before stumbling to a 5-7 record.

A 1-6 start this season in which they've been outscored by 100 points and are allowing a staggering 473.7 yards per game should be the final straw.

Meanwhile, Billy Napier has been extremely impressive in his first two-and-a-half seasons as head coach at Louisiana, leading it to a spot in the AP Top 25 for the first time in school history this year.

The Ragin' Cajuns went 11-3 last season after a 7-7 finish in Napier's first season in Lafayette, and they are off to a 5-1 start this year with their only defeat coming by three points against an undefeated Coastal Carolina squad. The offensive-minded Napier could do wonders for a Syracuse offense averaging a dismal 267.1 yards per game, which is fifth from the bottom in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

Napier served as offensive coordinator at Clemson under Dabo Swinney when he was just 29 years old, he was the wide receivers coach at Alabama for four seasons, and he spent one year as offensive coordinator at Arizona State before taking the Louisiana job.

With that experience on a Power Five coaching staff and his success in the Sun Belt, he's ready to make the jump.

Texas: Luke Fickell

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

Current Coach: Tom Herman

Buyout: $15,416,667

Since replacing Charlie Strong after the 2016 season, Tom Herman has led the Texas Longhorns to a 29-17 record and three straight bowl wins.

However, he hasn't made them title contenders.

The 2018 season was a high point. They finished with a 10-4 record and earned a spot in a New Year's Six bowl game—a 28-21 victory over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. With Sam Ehlinger returning under center and a talented roster around him, they began the 2019 season at No. 10 in the AP poll.

However, a 2-4 stretch in conference play tanked their season and they finished 8-5, and it has been another up-and-down season this year.

They upset undefeated Oklahoma State on Saturday, but it was only an upset because the Longhorns lost back-to-back games after an early climb into the AP Top 10.

Losing 2022 5-star quarterback commit Quinn Ewers last week has robbed Herman of his best bargaining chip in holding on to his job, and despite a large buyout, it appears increasingly likely he's going to be shown the door.

Luke Fickell has Cincinnati pounding on the door of the College Football Playoff after a 5-0 start and completely rebuilt a program that Tommy Tuberville burned to the ground.

After a 4-8 season his first year on the job in 2017, the Bearcats posted consecutive 11-win seasons to emerge as a Group of Five power.

He will very likely have his pick of open jobs this offseason, and if his Ohio State roots steer him away from Michigan and he doesn't want to contend with a crowded SEC West at Auburn, Texas might be the most attractive landing spot.

Vanderbilt: Jamey Chadwell

Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

Current Coach: Derek Mason

Buyout: Unknown

Derek Mason is in his seventh season at Vanderbilt, and the Commodores are well on their way to a seventh straight losing record.

They have been dismantled by SEC foes this season with a 153-47 point differential and outgained by an average of 499.0 to 297.8 total yards during their 0-4 start.

It's hard to see how Mason could possibly keep his job at this point.

They should jump at the chance to give Jamey Chadwell his first Power Five coaching job, and he has certainly earned it with Coastal Carolina off to a 6-0 start and gaining national attention.

The Chanticleers have shown a well-balanced offense that's averaging 40.3 points per game and a stingy defense that has surrendered just 18 points per contest and pitched a 51-0 shutout against Georgia State on Saturday.

He's young and unproven against high-level competition, but the bar has fallen so low at Vanderbilt that any life he can inject into the program would be a welcome change and buy him plenty of time to rebuild.

It's a risky move, but it's the perfect move for Vanderbilt.