College Football Picks Week 5: Predictions and Odds for Top 25 Schedule

The Auburn Tigers have had a hard time beating one of their oldest rivals lately.

However, the SEC West side could have the upper hand over the Georgia Bulldogs based off how both offenses looked in the first weekend of conference action.

Auburn opened as an underdog of just under a touchdown for its trip to Sanford Stadium, where it will try to win its first game over Georgia since 2017.

Georgia is one of many home favorites in the Week 5 slate. The home sides that are not on the right side of the spread at the moment have chances to spring upsets, but they need to be near perfect to do so.

The Iowa State Cyclones fit into the latter category. They have given the Oklahoma Sooners trouble in the past and could carry value as an 8.5-point underdog.

College Football Week 5 Schedule and Odds

Friday, October 2

Louisiana Tech at No. 22 BYU (-24) (9 p.m., ESPN2) (Over/Under: 56.5)

Saturday, October 3

South Carolina at No. 3 Florida (-18.5) (Noon, ESPN) (O/U: 56)

TCU at No. 9 Texas (-13.5) (Noon, Fox) (O/U: 59.5)

Missouri at No. 21 Tennessee (-10.5) (Noon, SEC Network) (O/U: 48.5)

NC State at No. 24 Pittsburgh (-14) (Noon, ACC Network) (O/U: 48.5)

No. 13 Texas A&M at No. 2 Alabama (-17.5) (3:30 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 53.5)

No. 12 North Carolina (-11.5) at Boston College (3:30 p.m., ABC) (O/U: 54.5)

South Florida at No. 15 Cincinnati (-21.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN+) (O/U: 44.5)

No. 17 Oklahoma State (-21.5) at Kansas (3:30 p.m., ESPN) (O/U: 55.5)

No. 25 Memphis (-1.5) at SMU (3:30 p.m., ESPN2) (O/U: 74.5)

No. 7 Auburn at No. 4 Georgia (-6.5) (7:30 p.m., ESPN) (O/U: 43.5)

Tulsa at No. 11 UCF (-21) (7:30 p.m., ESPN2) (O/U: 68.5)

Arkansas at No. 16 Mississippi State (-17.5) (7:30 p.m., SEC Network Alternate) (O/U: 64.5)

No. 18 Oklahoma (-8.5) at Iowa State (7:30 p.m., ABC) (O/U: 62.5)

No. 20 LSU (-20.5) at Vanderbilt (7:30 p.m., SEC Network) (O/U: 50.5)

Virginia at No. 1 Clemson (-30.5) (8 p.m., ACC Network) (O/U: 56)

All times ET. Predictions against the spread in bold. Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Predictions

Auburn (+6.5) at Georgia

Even though Georgia scored eight more points than Auburn, it had the less convincing offensive performance in Week 4.

Kirby Smart's team managed just five points in the first two quarters against an Arkansas Razorbacks team that is expected to reside at the bottom of the SEC West.

Stetson Bennett IV provided some stability to the unit in the second half, as he ended up with 211 passing yards and two touchdowns, but that was a game the Bulldogs should have wrapped up by halftime.

Georgia went 6-of-20 on third-down conversions, committed 12 penalties that cost it 108 yards and turned the ball over on two occasions.

If the SEC East favorite is that sloppy Saturday, Auburn could take advantage of the mistakes and may be in contention to cover or win outright.

Gus Malzahn's team did not turn over the ball in its win over Kentucky and picked up 233 of its 324 total yards through the air.

The key difference between Auburn and Georgia right now is Bo Nix has much better chemistry with his wide receivers, which could lead to extended drives and a better ability to pick up yardage on broken plays.

Nix connected with Seth Williams, Eli Stove and Anthony Schwartz for 207 of his 233 passing yards. The trio brought in 13 of Nix's 16 completions.

A year ago, Williams, Stove and Schwartz produced 189 receiving yards on 20 catches in a seven-point home defeat.

Since Auburn's top offensive stars kept the game close on home soil in 2019, they could be up for the challenge of remaining within one score on the road Saturday.

In their six meetings since 2015, Georgia is 5-1 outright, but Auburn has kept three games within one score, which makes the possibility of the Tigers covering the 6.5-point spread larger.

Oklahoma at Iowa State (+8.5)

The Iowa State Cyclones have not been the kryptonite to Oklahoma Sooners seasons as much as the Kansas State Wildcats, but they have given Lincoln Riley's team a few scares of late.

In 2018, Matt Campbell's team remained within 10 points and held the visiting Sooners to three fourth-quarter points.

A year ago, Iowa State almost came out of Norman, Oklahoma, with a victory, Oklahoma took that contest 42-41.

Oklahoma enters Jack Trice Stadium Saturday off its first loss of the season and in Spencer Rattler's starting tenure.

How Rattler responds to the defeat could affect how close Iowa State keeps in the game, which, in turn, plays a role in which team will cover the spread.

In the last two years, Oklahoma produced mixed results in responding to losses. It blew out TCU after losing to Texas in 2018, while its one-point win over Iowa State occurred directly after its upset defeat at the hands of Kansas State.

Cyclones running back Breece Hall could be the reason the game remains close for 60 minutes. Hall has 258 rushing yards and four scores against Louisiana and TCU.

In Saturday's win over TCU, Hall ran for 155 yards and three scores in support of Brock Purdy, who improved from the loss to Louisiana with a 78.3 completion percentage and 211 passing yards.

If Oklahoma fails to contain one or both of Iowa State's stars and can't clean up the four turnovers it committed Saturday, it may fail to put away the home side early.

If Iowa State provides a steady dose of Purdy and Hall while remaining within one possession in the first half, it could open up the chance for a second-half challenge for the win.

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90. Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.