The 10 NBA Players Most Likely to Change Teams This Offseason
After the whirlwind of player movement in 2019, it would have been difficult to imagine a less predictable offseason. We may get just that in 2020.
The financial ramifications of the hiatus, a postseason without fans in attendance and dwindling television ratings remain unknown. The salary cap is a giant question mark. And the door for title contention still feels almost wide-open for new teams to walk through with a few timely transactions.
With all those factors in place, it's anyone's guess how the league's rosters will look for the 2020-21 campaign.
We have a handful of hints suggesting a few players could be on the move, though. If you're looking for those most likely to be on different teams next season, keep scrolling.
Eric Bledsoe
1 of 9
For the second year in a row, the Milwaukee Bucks entered the postseason with the best record in the Eastern Conference and the presumptive MVP in Giannis Antetokounmpo.
And for the second year in a row, they left before the Finals. This time, they were dusted by the Miami Heat in just five second-round games.
Back-to-back disappointments of this magnitude make changes feel imminent.
"[Bucks governor Marc] Lasry, Antetokounmpo and his agent, Alex Saratsis, discussed the Bucks' season and disappointing finish and brainstormed on some personnel upgrades that could be available to the franchise in the offseason," ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski wrote. "They are expected to talk further once Antetokounmpo returns from a vacation."
When scanning Milwaukee's roster for spots that could potentially be upgraded, Eric Bledsoe's name jumps off the page. He's been a key contributor over the last two seasons, particularly on defense, but his numbers have cratered in the playoffs. And the Bucks have already been linked to another point guard.
"There are rival teams that believe Milwaukee will explore trading for Chris Paul -- complicated as that would be financially -- if Oklahoma City indeed makes CP3 available via trade," The New York Times' Marc Stein tweeted. "One more thing to track as the Bucks enter perhaps the most crucial offseason in team history ..."
Bledsoe's $16.9 million salary in 2020-21 will almost certainly be a requirement for a CP3 trade. And even if that doesn't end up being the target, Bledsoe's deal is one of the team's most movable.
DeMar DeRozan
2 of 9
The 2020 playoffs were the first without the San Antonio Spurs in over two decades. If a legitimate reboot wasn't already the plan, ending that streak should've made it so.
Gregg Popovich showed a willingness to go with the younger players in the seeding games, playing Dejounte Murray, Derrick White and Lonnie Walker IV together. And that's something the team should lean even further into next season.
DeMar DeRozan was an intriguing stretch 4 alongside that trio, but it's safe to say the DDR experiment didn't work in San Antonio.
His offense was strong, but over the course of his two seasons there, the Spurs were minus-0.9 points per 100 possessions with DeRozan on the floor and plus-3.6 with him off.
His tendency to get lost off the ball on defense had his teammates scrambling far too often. And more minutes at the 4 would mean loads of mismatches.
Of course, whether he's on the Spurs is something that is largely in DeRozan's hands. He has a player option for $27.7 million for 2020-21. Turning that down would be tough, but it may be worth it if he thinks some team might be willing to give him one more long-term deal.
A trade is also possible. If he picks up the option, he'll be on an expiring contract.
Either way, the writing appears on the wall. It's time for San Antonio to give itself a fresh start. And it's hard to imagine a 31-year-old guard being a part of that.
Danilo Gallinari
3 of 9
Danilo Gallinari has been one of the best offensive weapons in the NBA over the last two seasons. No, really.
Since the start of the 2018-19 campaign, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Karl-Anthony Towns and Stephen Curry are the only players in the league who match or exceed Gallo's marks for points per 75 possessions (23.1) and true shooting percentage (63.3).
The veteran forward was critically important to the Oklahoma City Thunder's obliteration of 2019-20 expectations, but his contract is up, his team is on the precipice of a rebuild and he's entering his post-prime.
Those ingredients suggest Gallinari will be elsewhere next season. And in today's NBA, there should be no shortage of suitors.
Efficient offense is a general goal for every team. And for years, Gallo has been the unsung personification of moneyball. James Harden is the only player in league history who matches his career marks for three-point-attempt rate and free-throw-attempt rate.
The few extra points per game that he generates over what an average player would on similar possessions adds up over the course of a season.
Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka
4 of 9
Part of what made the Kawhi Leonard trade such a no-brainer for the Toronto Raptors was that it didn't hamper their ability to pivot to a rebuild.
If Kawhi stayed, great. If he left, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, Norman Powell and OG Anunoby were all developing into bigger roles. And the contracts of Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka would soon come off the books.
The outlook is a bit different now. Lowry's contract was extended another year. And Marc Gasol was added via trade, but his deal runs out at the same time as Ibaka's. After their second-round exit at the hands of the Boston Celtics, don't be surprised if both bigs move on.
Both are in their 30s and entering a different phase than any of the younger Raptors. If the organization is going to compete for another title, it will likely be during the primes of the aforementioned youngsters and with a center closer to their age.
Ibaka and Gasol, meanwhile, are likely headed to smaller individual roles on teams in need of veteran leadership.
Buddy Hield
5 of 9
Buddy Hield signed a four-year, $94 million extension with the Sacramento Kings in October 2019. He found himself moved to a bench role by coach Luke Walton by January.
In February, The Athletic's Shams Charania, Sam Amick and Jason Jones detailed the guard's frustration with the demotion:
"If Hield remains displeased with his role, a source with knowledge of his thinking said he might request a trade. He believes he is a starter in the NBA and there's no guarantee he'll get that job back, given how the team has played lately. And unlike last season, when he never criticized [Dave] Joerger publicly and even refrained from doing so after their well-chronicled January 2019 run-in at Golden State, Hield has shown a willingness to criticize [Luke] Walton that has proved at times problematic."
Hield never made it back to Sacramento's starting five, and with his replacement, Bogdan Bogdanovic, entering restricted free agency, there's a chance retaining him could be pricey.
If Hield remains disgruntled and some team signs Bogdanovic to a hefty offer sheet, the Kings will have to think long and hard about putting the former on the trade market.
Even with the substantial extension kicking in for 2020-21, it isn't hard to imagine teams around the league being interested. Stephen Curry is the only player in the league who matches or exceeds Hield's three-point percentage and total three-point attempts over the course of his career.
Jrue Holiday
6 of 9
This season, the New Orleans Pelicans featured a balance of enticing young talent and solid veteran play.
In one camp: Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Jaxson Hayes and Josh Hart. The veterans included Derrick Favors, JJ Redick and Jrue Holiday.
Next season, with Ingram likely back on his second contract, it wouldn't be surprising to see the organization rely more heavily on the rising potential stars.
Favors' deal expired at the end of this season. Redick will be playing for a manageable (and tradable) $13.0 million. And Holiday figures to be one of this offseason's most coveted trade targets.
NBC's Tom Haberstroh has already speculated about the possibility of Holiday becoming a Golden State Warrior (h/t Pelican Debrief). And a Western Conference executive brought up the possibility of him joining Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving on the Brooklyn Nets to HoopsHype's Michael Scotto.
Holiday is the kind of player who would make sense on most rosters. He's a bit undersized at shooting guard, but he doesn't play small. Among the best on-ball defenders in the league, Holiday can ably handle assignments against 1s, 2s and 3s. And he hits just enough threes to force defenses to pay attention.
As New Orleans' focus shifts more fully to Zion, Ingram and Ball, a Holiday trade could bring in multiple assets to supplement them.
Paul Millsap
7 of 9
Jamal Murray is just 23. At 25, Nikola Jokic isn't much older. Their third-leading scorer in the playoffs, Michael Porter Jr., is 22.
And yet, the Denver Nuggets are already in the Western Conference Finals. The future of this team is bright. And the future power forward who seems to fit with those three rising stars is Jerami Grant (26), not Paul Millsap (35).
Over the course of his three seasons with Denver, Millsap's impact has been undeniably positive. When he shared the floor in the regular season with Jokic, Denver was plus-8.6 points per 100 possessions. It was plus-2.1 when Jokic played without Millsap.
This postseason, that trend has reversed in dramatic fashion. The Nuggets are plus-10.9 when Jokic plays without Millsap and minus-10.7 when they're together.
Obviously, the sample size is small, but those numbers match the eye test. Millsap now seems to play a step slow, while younger forwards like Porter and Grant fly around off the ball for Denver's patented cuts and Jokic's unmatched passing.
With Millsap's deal coming off the books this offseason, it makes sense for the Nuggets to commit more minutes in the frontcourt to those two. Even Bol Bol could break into the rotation (Mason Plumlee is also entering free agency).
Again, Millsap's three-year, $90 million deal was a net plus for this organization, despite health struggles. But unless he's willing to take a pretty significant pay (and role) cut, there's a good chance he'll be elsewhere in 2020-21.
Victor Oladipo
8 of 9
After making All-Star teams in each of his first two campaigns with the Indiana Pacers, a quad injury prevented Victor Oladipo from playing most of 2019-20. And when he did come back, he didn't look like his old self.
Oladipo had a way-below-average 46.1 effective field-goal percentage in the regular season, and his assist, rebound and steal percentages all plummeted.
Before he came back, big man Domantas Sabonis emerged as an All-Star as the team began to play to his strengths. Trying to work Oladipo into the offense run by Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon never quite clicked.
Indiana was minus-0.4 points per 100 possessions when Oladipo was on the floor and plus-2.8 when he was off.
All of these factors, combined with the fact that the guard will be on an expiring contract in 2020-21, makes it tough to shake the feeling he might get moved.
"I bet they trade him," a former Eastern Conference executive told Bleacher Report's Eric Pincus.
With so many possessions dominated by Sabonis, Brogdon and T.J. Warren, it may be tough for Oladipo to ever find his old form on this particular team.
That kind of a comeback would be more likely on a team that needs him to handle the ball.
Chris Paul
9 of 9
Once he played in his first game with the Oklahoma City Thunder, Chris Paul's stay there had already lasted longer than many expected when he was first traded there last summer.
Then, something even less expected happened. After starting 5-10, OKC took off behind Paul's leadership, finishing the season on an extended 39-18 stretch that landed it a spot in the playoffs.
After the hard-fought first-round exit, CP3 rumors almost instantly returned. A Western Conference executive told Pincus that Paul "has played himself back into being a commodity."
Even at 35 years old, with two years and an average salary of $42.8 left on his current contract, Paul could help plenty of teams.
He was top 15 in box plus/minus this season, and the Thunder's net rating was a whopping 13.8 points better with him on the floor.
He can still engineer individual possessions about as well as anyone in the game. He never seems out of control. The mid-range and floater game feels as unstoppable as it was during his Clippers and Rockets days.
And now that he's once again "a commodity," OKC should be interested in adding to its treasure trove of assets.
