Ranking Potential NBA Finals Matchups

Look back on the history of the NBA. Generally speaking, superteams have dominated. That didn't start when LeBron James went to the Miami Heat in 2010.

But in 2019-20, the league appears to have about as much parity as it ever has. As of Thursday night, FiveThirtyEight's projection system gave six teams at least a 19 percent shot to make the Finals (eight have at least a 5 percent shot). Five teams have at least a 10 percent chance to win it all.

For the first time in years, the potential Finals matchup doesn't feel like a foregone conclusion.

The Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles Clippers, Philadelphia 76ers and Houston Rockets all feel like legitimate contenders. Even the Toronto Raptors and Denver Nuggets probably have an outside shot. And if everything breaks right, who knows, maybe the Utah Jazz, Miami Heat or Dallas Mavericks could crash the party.

That, of course, means loads of possibilities for the Finals. Here's how the projection system sees it:

• Bucks: 44 percent chance of making the Finals
• Clippers: 37 percent
• Lakers: 31 percent
• Rockets: 26 percent
• 76ers: 25 percent
• Celtics: 19 percent
• Raptors: 11 percent
• Nuggets: 5 percent
• All other teams: Less than 1 percent

To decide which of those two teams make for the best combination in a potential Finals matchup, we'll look at entertainment value, star power, inter-organizational history and contrasts in style.

With one exception, all the potential matchups ranked in this article will have to clear 48 percent when you combine their aforementioned chances.

Of course, given the subjectivity of this list, my criteria may not quite match up to yours. As always, feel free to sound off on which potential matchups you're most excited about.

Honorable Mentions

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Jazz at Celtics

In a lot of ways, the Jazz have been a bit underwhelming this season. At their apex, when they were 32-13, FiveThirtyEight had them at a 5 percent chance to make the Finals. A five-game and a four-game losing streak since then now have them under 1 percent.

Still, Utah has an exciting rising star in Donovan Mitchell and one of the game's most dominant defensive forces over the last five years in Rudy Gobert. The Jazz are also second in three-point percentage, which gives them a shooter's chance in a lot of series.

A matchup with Utah defector Gordon Hayward, who was booed on every touch during the Celtics' last game in Utah, would bring plenty of tension to the series. There would also be the potential for a budding individual rivalry between Mitchell and Jayson Tatum—first and second, respectively, in wins over replacement player among 2017 draftees.

Mavericks at Heat

The Mavericks and the Heat have an interesting rivalry in need of a tiebreaker. In 2006, Dwyane Wade, Shaquille O'Neal and—if you ask Mavs fans—the officials got the better of Dallas. Dirk Nowitzki exacted revenge against LeBron's Big Three in 2011.

Now, a Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis vs. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo matchup would give us an exciting offense vs. defense finish to the trilogy.

On the season, Dallas is plus-6.9 (86th percentile) when Luka and KP are on the floor. Miami is plus-6.1 (83rd percentile) when Jimmy and Bam are together. The clash in styles—the Mavs' wide-open, five-out offense against the gritty defense of the Heat's top two players—would be appointment viewing.

And, of course, a Finals appearance in Year 2 would only accelerate Luka's already meteoric rise.

10. Celtics vs. Clippers

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Tatum's in-season leap has become one of the bigger stories of this unpredictable 2019-20 campaign.

After averaging 21.3 points with a 49.3 effective field-goal percentage through December, Tatum has exploded for 26.5 points per game and a 56.5 effective field-goal percentage since the calendar flipped to 2020. Narrow the sample even further and Tatum is averaging 30.8 points with a 59.5 effective field-goal percentage since Feb. 1.

The Ringer's Dan Devine tried to sum up the incredible ascent:

"It's not like Tatum wasn't good before this; hell, I picked him as an All-Star reserve based on his performance before the surge, not what came after it. To jump up this much during the season, though, is truly wild. One minute, he's a pile of enticing tools who produces a lot, but is also prone to some occasional foibles and miscues. The next minute, he's … I don't know, a 6-foot-8 Adrian Dantley who is a deadeye from deep? Glen Rice, but Make It All-Defense? Not Kevin Durant or Tracy McGrady, but damn, also not nearly as far from those sorts of comparisons as anyone would've expected two months ago?"

Tatum's defense buoyed his value in the early part of the season. Now that his offense has caught up, he looks very much like the kind of player who could lead the Celtics all the way to the Finals, and a head-to-head matchup with another two-way alpha, Kawhi Leonard, would make for a must-see series.

The down-roster matchups in this one are plenty enticing, too: Kemba Walker's offense vs. Patrick Beverley's defense, a similar (though probably lower on the marquee) wing matchup between Jaylen Brown and Paul George, Gordon Hayward's point-forward ability against Marcus Morris Sr.'s irrational confidence and a small-ball 5 battle between Daniel Theis and Montrezl Harrell.

Intrigue abounds here, though the top-end talent may not draw quite as much attention as that of some of the other teams that follow.

9. 76ers vs. Lakers

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The 76ers' 2019-20 campaign has felt like a roller coaster akin to Utah's. Some nights, the Sixers look like a legitimate contender to win the East. Other nights, the offense looks like a crowded mess as Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and Al Horford are on the verge of stepping on each other's feet inside.

In terms of raw talent, though, it's tough to look past Philly.

Simmons' lack of a jumper has been analyzed to death, but his production is borderline unprecedented. Oscar Robertson is the only player who totaled at least as many points, rebounds and assists in his first three seasons, and he played nearly 3,000 more minutes. And over the course of his career, Philadelphia's net rating has been notably better when the jumbo point guard is on the floor.

Embiid, meanwhile, has a career average of 28.2 points per 75 possessions, a mark that trails only Michael Jordan's 30.3. His net rating swing is even bigger than Simmons'.

And despite all the calls to split those two up, the numbers show that the 76ers are at their best when the two play together. Over the course of Embiid's career, Philly is plus-9.1 points per 100 possessions when he shares the floor with Simmons.

The problem with this season was that the addition of Horford added another layer of congestion that simply became unsustainable. When all three are on the floor, the Sixers are minus-0.7 points per 100 possessions. They're plus-5.3 when Simmons and Embiid are healthy and on the court without Horford.

As the veteran transitions to a bench role, the team may re-tap its title-contending potential. And the Lakers offer one of the more intriguing matchups with which to test that potential.

Like Philly, L.A. is playing huge during an era in which many teams are downsizing. The Lakers start games with Anthony Davis at the 4 and JaVale McGee at the 5, a traditional look that would make going big far more palatable for the 76ers.

The superstar point-forward matchup between Simmons and LeBron would be fascinating, as well. Giannis, Luka and even Zion Williamson may have leapfrogged Simmons in conversations regarding who will take LeBron's throne when he eventually vacates it. Simmons could re-stake his claim with a Finals win.

If these two meet, Simmons (whose perimeter defense has been superb this season) would likely draw the assignment of slowing down the seemingly ageless LeBron.

8. 76ers vs. Rockets

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While a Sixers-Lakers series would offer something of a Clash of Titans, Sixers-Rockets could look like David and Goliath.

Of course, no one would suggest that the skill level of James Harden and Russell Westbrook represent the smaller David here, but Houston's new micro-ball approach would be a stark contrast to Philadelphia's big lineups from a purely aesthetic standpoint.

One might think that Embiid and Simmons would annihilate the Rockets, anchored inside by 6'5" P.J. Tucker and 6'7" Robert Covington, in the rebounding department. Houston is 25th in defensive rebounding percentage, and its only alarming loss of the micro-ball era came against the New York Knicks, who won the rebounding battle 65-34.

The sheer volume of threes the Rockets put up will overwhelm on many nights, and pulling Embiid away from the rim should help, too. But Philadelphia looks like one of those teams that could be the perfect foil to this style.

One drawback here could be the potential for games to devolve into free-throw-shooting contests. Among players with at least 5,000 career minutes, Embiid and Harden are second and third, respectively, in free-throw attempts per 75 possessions.

7. Nuggets vs. Bucks

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Milwaukee and Denver feature two of the league's premier European bigs in Giannis and Nikola Jokic. Their styles couldn't be much more different, but their impacts are both at an all-time-great level.

Among players with at least 5,000 career minutes, Jokic ranks sixth in box plus/minus, while Giannis ranks 25th.

Both are the hubs around which their teams' offenses revolve. Both are surrounded by a good (or, in Milwaukee's case, great) supporting cast. Both move the ball well (they're fourth and seventh, respectively, in assists per game). And the superstars for each squad seem to enjoy playing against one another.

Over the last three seasons, Giannis is averaging 27.2 points, 12.0 rebounds, 8.4 assists, 1.2 blocks and 1.2 steals against Jokic's Nuggets. Jokic is averaging 24.0 points, 9.8 rebounds, 8.4 assists, 1.2 blocks and 0.8 steals against Giannis' Bucks.

What's more, Jokic's one postseason run suggests he somehow improves under the intense pressure of a playoff series.

The back and forth between these two ultra-productive bigs would make for a wildly entertaining series. Hot streaks from Khris Middleton or Jamal Murray would only add to the entertainment.

The potential problem for the more casual fans could be the lack of name recognition. After Giannis, there aren't a ton of players in this series who get loads of attention right now. A deep playoff run could change that, but names like Jokic, Murray and Middleton just aren't the same kinds of draws as LeBron and Kawhi right now.

6. 76ers vs. Clippers

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One of the most memorable moments of the 2019 postseason was Kawhi's series-ending buzzer-beater over Embiid.

The Sixers were literally inches away from overtime in that Game 7. Toronto may still have eventually won, but that surely doesn't provide much solace for Philadelphia now.

Could that heartbreaking loss end up having an effect similar to the galvanization of the San Antonio Spurs after they lost to the Miami Heat in 2013?

The full measure of revenge would require knocking off the Kawhi-less Raptors on the Eastern Conference side of the bracket before eventually facing the man himself in the Finals. Of course, a lot has to break right for that entire story to play out, but it would be easy to sell if the Finals wound up including the Clippers and 76ers.

Beyond the narrative, Embiid would certainly provide matchup problems for the Clippers. And theoretically, Simmons and Josh Richardson would bring enough perimeter defense to at least slow Kawhi and PG down.

Depth absolutely favors L.A., though. It remains to be seen how much of an impact Alec Burks and Glenn Robinson III will have on an often underwhelming Philadelphia bench, but they seem unlikely to match the one-two punch provided by Lou Williams and Harrell.

5. Raptors vs. Clippers

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Faithful Raptors fans greeted Kawhi with cheers and a tribute video when he returned to Toronto in December because, as Clippers teammate Patrick Patterson described it, Leonard "did something for Toronto that nobody has ever done before.”

When Toronto president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri traded for Kawhi in the summer of 2018, there was always a chance it'd be just a one-year arrangement. That it ended in a title wasn't enough to convince him to stick around. But even though he bolted as soon as he could, Raptors fans have still shown plenty of love and appreciation.

One can't help but wonder if the warm feelings would cool, at least a little bit, if these two teams squared off for a seven-game Finals series.

Kawhi taking the daggers he previously delivered for Toronto and turning them against the Raptors would almost certainly weigh on the collective emotions of the fanbase. An and-1 against Kyle Lowry, who would almost certainly be trying to take a charge, would cut to the souls of Raptors fans.

On the other hand, losing Kawhi, snagging a seed near the top of the East and somehow repeating might give Toronto one of the most unlikely championships in league history. Last season's story was phenomenal. Backing it up by beating the guy who left would almost defy explanation.

Now, there is one issue holding this potential Finals matchup back.

The Clippers roster is loaded. Toronto is pretty deep, too, but the top-end talent (namely, Kawhi and George) definitely favors L.A. and could lead to a possible blowout.

4. Clippers vs. Bucks

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Last May, the Bucks got out to a 2-0 series lead over the Toronto Raptors in the Eastern Conference Finals. Giannis Antetokounmpo's first trip to the NBA Finals felt inevitable. Then, Kawhi took over.

Over Toronto's four straight wins that sent the Raptors to their matchup with the Golden State Warriors, Leonard averaged 29.3 points, 10.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 2.5 steals and 1.3 blocks. During the same stretch, the Raptors were plus-11.1 points per 100 possessions with Kawhi on the floor and minus-4.5 with him off.

Most importantly, Giannis went 6-of-18 when defended by Leonard in those four games, and the Bucks scored just 81 points in the nearly 90 possessions Kawhi was on him, giving Milwaukee a 91.3 offensive rating that paled in comparison to its playoff-long mark of 110.7.

"Toronto bled with purpose; Milwaukee, meanwhile, looked lost," Haley O'Shaughnessy wrote for The Ringer. "Nobody—not longtime Raptor Kyle Lowry, not first-year coach Nick Nurse, not even Sideline Drake—projected that desire to win more than Kawhi—the player who might be in Toronto for only a year."

Of course, he was only there a year. And now that Kawhi is in the West, a Finals matchup between him and Giannis would give the latter a shot at revenge and the former a shot at further cementing his legacy.

For whatever reason, NBA pundits often withhold their highest praise until a player reaches the mountaintop. Once (or if) Giannis does that, he'll instantly vault into conversations about his all-time status. His regular-season numbers, even if you include his slow-start years, already put him there. He just needs that title run. And combining that with the exorcising of demons from 2019 makes for a heck of a story.

For Kawhi, winning a third Finals MVP for a third different team would literally put him in a class of his own. As it stands now, Michael Jordan (six), Tim Duncan, LeBron James, Magic Johnson and Shaquille O'Neal are the only players with at least three Finals MVPs. LeBron is the only player in that bunch to split his among even two different teams.

Three wins in three different cities, combined with his stellar playoff numbers, might put Kawhi on the outskirts of GOAT conversations.

3. Celtics vs. Lakers

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The history here is well known.

The Celtics have an NBA-record 17 titles. The Lakers (when you include the Minneapolis years) are at 16. And the two franchises have met in the Finals 12 times. 

Of course, Boston is 9-3 in those 12 series, giving the Celtics faithful another layer of bragging rights.

LeBron besting L.A.'s biggest rival on the biggest stage would go a long way toward endearing him to the Lakers' passionate fanbase. He may never catch Kobe Bryant or Magic Johnson in terms of sentimentality, but a title, particularly if it came at the expense of Boston, would bring him closer.

In terms of how the games themselves would play out, there's plenty to be excited about with this potential series.

The two teams met for one of the most entertaining games of the regular season on Feb. 23 when the Lakers overcame Tatum's 41-spot for a two-point win. The intensity stirred memories of the old rivalry.

"This is the year—it must be—for the Celtics and Lakers to renew their historic rivalry in the Finals," Boston.com's Chad Finn wrote after L.A.'s 114-112 win over the Kemba Walker-less Celtics. "The teams are worthy of a showdown."

The defensive versatility of Brown, Tatum, Hayward and Theis make Boston uniquely suited to at least offer LeBron some challenges. It may have fewer potential answers for AD, but he'll be a matchup problem for just about everyone.

The Lakers would likely enter as a favorite here, but the Celtics, particularly when held up by the historical foundation laid by Larry Bird, Magic, Kobe, Pau Gasol, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, wouldn't go down without a fight.

2. Rockets vs. Bucks

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A rivalry is budding between Harden and Giannis.

It's not enough that they have the last two MVP awards and will likely each get a share this season. The two have traded verbal barbs throughout 2019-20.

During the All-Star draft, Giannis joked, "I want somebody that's gonna pass the ball" as his reason for not picking Harden.

Just over three weeks later, Harden fired back in an interview with ESPN's Rachel Nichols: "I wish I could just run and was seven feet and run and just dunk. Like, that takes no skill at all. I gotta actually learn how to play basketball and how to have skill."

And finally, Giannis told reporters on Feb. 28, "My game is not just power for sure."

Things have quieted a bit since Antetokounmpo's comment, but the feud would absolutely be rekindled if these two teams were to meet in the Finals.

It doesn't hurt that, statistically, they may be the top two individual players in the NBA right now. Giannis leads the league in box plus/minus, ESPN's real plus-minus and Basketball Index's player impact plus-minus. Harden leads the way in FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR rating.

A head-to-head series, even if they didn't spend the entire time defending each other, would be the perfect way to settle the score. 

Additionally, both teams play a thoroughly modern brand of basketball. They just get there in different ways.

Houston is small. Milwaukee is huge. Houston is first in three-point rate. Milwaukee is fourth. They also make up the top two in pace this season.

Beyond the individual superstar matchup, this series would feature top-tier team basketball.

1. Lakers at Bucks

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Other teams, especially the Clippers, may take exception to this classification. But sometimes, it's just about getting the two best teams in the Finals.

Right now, the Bucks are first in winning percentage, simple rating system (point differential combined with strength of schedule) and ESPN's basketball power index's title odds. The Lakers are in second place for all three.

And though Giannis pretended to wear LeBron's crown back in December, this matchup would afford him an opportunity to truly take it. He's trending toward a second consecutive MVP and leads the league in box plus/minus over the last two seasons.

But it's still hard to pick against LeBron in the playoffs, especially with AD along for the ride.

"It's everything I expected and more," James told reporters of Davis. "Obviously, that's why I wanted him here. When you get a generational talent like that and you got an opportunity to get him, you just try to do whatever you can to get him."

Now that Davis is on the Lakers, L.A. has its first shot at a title in nearly a decade. But it may have to upend a statistical juggernaut to earn it.

The Bucks are on pace to break the record for single-season point differential. They have eight players with at least 800 minutes and an above-average BPM. They're deep, they're modern, and they revolve around an all-time-great player at the outset of his prime.

Giannis' historical predecessor, LeBron, may be the only player who can stop him...for now.

Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, PBPStats.com or Cleaning the Glass and current heading into games on March 5.