The Case for and Against Every 2020 NBA Title Contender
After an unprecedented amount of player movement last summer, featuring numerous All-Stars changing teams, the race for the 2019-20 title seemed more wide open than ever.
Fast-forward seven months. We're nearly six weeks out from the playoffs, and that remains true.
Sure, a hierarchy does exist within the tier of contenders. But generally speaking, nearly 10 teams have a legitimate shot at raising the Larry O'Brien Trophy in June. And while that is theoretically true in many seasons, what makes this particular race for the title so fascinating is that no team is perfectly designed.
By and large, the 2010s were dominated by two superteams: the Miami Heat in the beginning and middle and the Golden State Warriors toward the end. Because both squads were so completely and utterly superior to their competitors, few other teams could reasonably convince themselves they had a shot at a championship (barring injuries, of course).
This year, however, is different.
Let's examine the case for and against each NBA title contender winning 16 games this spring. For the record, we define contenders as teams with championship odds no worse than +2000 (bet $100 to win $2000), per Caesars Palace, and they are listed here from best to worst odds.
Los Angeles Lakers
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The Case For
With all due respect to Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the Lakers have the best duo in the NBA. When LeBron James and Anthony Davis are on the court together, the Lakers have a 9.9 net rating and often seem unstoppable.
However, it's not just L.A.'s top two. Most of the team's role players have been terrific, which is worth praising given the history of some of those players (hi, Dwight Howard), and the Lakers have quickly developed a team-wide identity. They're also one of just three teams in the NBA with a top-five offensive and defensive rating.
For all the questions surrounding Los Angeles before the season, it's going as well as anybody could have imagined.
The Case Against
Before the All-Star break, DAZN's Micah Adams tweeted out that the Lakers joined the Cleveland Cavaliers, New York Knicks, Charlotte Hornets and Golden State Warriors as one of five teams winless against squads ranked in the top five of scoring margin. He also noted that James and Davis had played in each of the Lakers' five relevant losses.
Since Adams' post, the Lakers have defeated the Boston Celtics in one of the season's best games. But his point remains.
While L.A. has several quality wins, it has also lost twice to the Los Angeles Clippers and once each to the Milwaukee Bucks, Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Toronto Raptors, Houston Rockets, and Philadelphia 76ers. No spoilers, but those seven teams make up the rest of this article, so the Lakers owe it to themselves to rack up some meaningful victories over their remaining 27 games.
Milwaukee Bucks
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The Case For
On paper, the Bucks are one of the greatest teams ever. They're on pace for 70 wins, boast a transcendent defense and are led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, a favorite to win his second consecutive MVP.
However, Milwaukee's greatness goes beyond even Giannis. The Bucks are 5-1 in games without him and boast a 6.5 net rating whenever he sits.
While Milwaukee may not be the most talented team mentioned here, head coach Mike Budenholzer has gotten the most out of role players like Donte DiVincenzo, George Hill and Wesley Matthews. As it stands, the Bucks are comfortable favorites to represent the East in the Finals.
The Case Against
While the Bucks may seem particularly invulnerable this season, they were also the clear favorite if you rewind to just 12 short months ago. That didn't exactly end well for them.
From a personnel standpoint, Milwaukee may also be weaker this year than last.
Malcolm Brogdon was replaced by Matthews and Kyle Korver, both of whom have been serviceable but could easily be unplayable under certain postseason circumstances. In addition, while Giannis has improved as a shooter at 31.1 percent from beyond the arc, he's still not even average from range, suggesting that the Toronto Raptors' defensive strategy against him from last season may still work.
Everything may seem different for the Bucks. But when they're under the bright lights, who's to say they won't revert to old habits?
Los Angeles Clippers
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The Case For
When Kawhi Leonard and Paul George play together, this team is as good as advertised. The Clippers have a 9.6 net rating and a 104.0 defensive rating when their two All-NBA wings play together.
Of course, the case for a championship goes beyond their Big Two. Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell continue to be among the best bench players in the league, while role players like Patrick Beverley, JaMychal Green and Landry Shamet also provide valuable minutes.
Throw in recent acquisitions Marcus Morris Sr. and Reggie Jackson, and Los Angeles has arguably the most talented 12-man roster in the entire league.
The Case Against
Just because you have talent doesn't mean it fits well.
Leonard, George, Williams, Morris and Jackson are all ball-stoppers, a fact made clear by the Clippers ranking 23rd in assist percentage. Kawhi has obviously been transcendent in big moments, but we haven't seen him play at that level with regularity this year.
Two other major questions still exist: injuries and chemistry.
Only three current Clippers have played in at least 50 games this year: Williams, Harrell and Ivica Zubac. George and Leonard have only played in 24 games together. In addition, Harrell has recently hinted at some potential trouble brewing for a squad that "still has to figure out things we need to do to win night in and night out."
For a team with this much talent, the Clippers have an awful lot to fix over the following two months.
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Houston Rockets
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The Case For
When the Rockets traded for Russell Westbrook, questions immediately arose. How would two of the most ball-dominant players in NBA history coexist?
For a while this season, those were valid. James Harden started out red-hot while Westbrook took a while to acclimate, then the roles reversed when Harden went ice-cold in January.
However, they've both been excellent over the last month, and the Rockets have been rolling as a result. Since Jan. 31, Houston is 7-2 with wins over the Boston Celtics, Utah Jazz, Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks.
Occam's razor is a popular principle for a reason. Sometimes, simply having the most talent is enough to win out.
The Case Against
There are two main reasons to doubt Houston.
Reason No. 1 concerns the team's lack of height. Given Houston's recent impressive wins, this has clearly not been an issue yet, but how P.J. Tucker and Robert Covington will be able to fare in a series against Anthony Davis or Rudy Gobert is a legitimate question.
Reason No. 2 centers around the Rockets' top two players. While Harden and Westbrook have seemingly figured each other out, both have been bad playoff performers since the Oklahoma City Thunder traded the former.
The Beard famously shot 2-of-11 in a 2017 elimination game against the San Antonio Spurs, while Westbrook hasn't shot above 40 percent in the postseason since 2015-16. If things start to go sideways in April or May, it wouldn't be shocking to see one or both of Harden and Westbrook lead the collapse.
Boston Celtics
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The Case For
After disappointing last season, Brad Stevens has re-established himself as one of the NBA's great head coaches.
The Celtics have a top-five offense and a top-five defense, and they boast one of the best starting lineups in the NBA. Jayson Tatum is emerging as a top-20 player, Kemba Walker remains a dynamic scorer and distributor, Jaylen Brown is a Most Improved Player candidate, and Gordon Hayward is gaining confidence in his second season post-injury.
Stevens nearly made the Finals starting Terry Rozier, a second-year Brown and a rookie Tatum. Imagine what he can do with this team.
The Case Against
Opponents can pick Boston apart in a few ways.
First, outside of Daniel Theis, the Celtics have a gaping hole at center. Enes Kanter is famously unplayable in many playoff circumstances, while Grant Williams and Robert Williams III are both as green as their uniforms. Stevens could play Tatum at center, but you can easily imagine that going poorly against someone like Joel Embiid.
Secondly, there's Kemba.
Though Walker doesn't have a big sample size in the playoffs, the stats that exist aren't promising. In his most recent series, Walker shot just 36.6 percent from the field and 32.6 percent from three. That could merely be a slump, or it could be another example of small guards struggling to thrive in the playoffs.
If Boston wants to go deep into May or June, Tatum might have to lead the way.
Denver Nuggets
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The Case For
Perhaps the most underrated team here, the Nuggets have put together an excellent two-year stretch, winning 54 games last year and currently playing at an even better pace. Denver is 15-10 against teams at or above .500 and has beaten six of the seven other teams in this article (it has yet to play the Toronto Raptors).
In addition, the Nuggets came within a game of the Western Conference Finals last year, thanks in large part to a near triple-double average from Nikola Jokic and some iconic performances from Jamal Murray.
it may not have a duo on the level of the Los Angeles teams or the Houston Rockets, but Denver is as real a threat as any of those clubs.
The Case Against
Nearly every member of the Nuggets' starting five has a weak spot.
Though he's apparently lost some weight, Jokic is still an easy pick-and-roll target. Murray, though in the midst of his best shooting stretch ever, is prone to bouts of inconsistency until proven otherwise. Gary Harris has been in a slump all season. Paul Millsap is 35 years old.
While boasting a deep roster, Denver has spots that are easy to attack.
Plus, while the Nuggets do have good wins against high-level opponents, they were also run out of the gym twice by the Rockets and beaten twice by the Lakers. Both those teams are potential late-round opponents, and if Denver can't get past them, then it has no chance to win a title.
Philadelphia 76ers
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The Case For
There's a reason the Sixers were such a popular pick to make the NBA Finals before the season.
They have a tremendous starting five, and when Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Al Horford, Tobias Harris and Josh Richardson are on the court together, Philly is great. That lineup records an 8.5 net rating and a staggering 97.1 defensive rating.
The Sixers have also beaten every team on this list other than the Houston Rockets, including three wins against the Boston Celtics and a 17-point drubbing of the Los Angeles Lakers.
When Philly plays to its potential, few teams are as dangerous.
The Case Against
You only have to listen to Sixers players to hear what's wrong.
Embiid has vacillated between unhappiness and his typical braggadocio all year. Horford has struggled to fit in. Richardson has had injury trouble. Harris isn't always comfortable with spot-up duty. Simmons may be out for a while with a lower back injury. Even though the aforementioned statistics suggest this should be a premier lineup, everybody involved seems to believe something is off.
It doesn't help that the Sixers' bench has been horrendous. Among bench players, only Kyle O'Quinn and Glenn Robinson III have player efficiency ratings above 15.0. O'Quinn has been out of the rotation for months, and Robinson was just acquired from the Golden State Warriors.
The fact that there's near-universal agreement on a problem existing is a good sign. Whether anybody in Philly has a solution will define the rest of its season.
Toronto Raptors
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The Case For
At every turn in 2019-20, Toronto has erased doubts.
Before the season, it was demoted from serious Eastern Conference playoff contention thanks to the departure of Kawhi Leonard. In response, the Raptors got off to a 15-4 start. After losing Pascal Siakam, Norman Powell and Marc Gasol in the same December game, a fall-off seemed inevitable. However, Toronto went 6-6 while they recovered and ripped off a 15-game winning streak when that trio returned to the court.
Time and again, the Raptors have proved themselves. Even without all their leading contributors, they can more than hold their own.
The Case Against
As great as Siakam has been this season, he just isn't Kawhi Leonard.
Of course, holding anyone to that standard is ridiculous. But Kawhi had to be as great as he was last year for the Raptors to even make the Finals, and Siakam's weaknesses are more pronounced.
A 36.9 percent three-point shooter in the 2018-19 regular season, he regressed to just 27.9 percent from beyond the arc in the postseason. He's shooting nearly the same percentage from long-range this year, but who's to say he won't do that again, especially with more defensive attention focused on him?
Toronto returns six additional key players from its title run, which should give the team an on-court and psychological boost against untested foes. But if Siakam can't rise to the occasion like Leonard did so often, then the Raptors will fall short of a repeat.
All stats courtesy of ESPN, Basketball Reference or NBA.com unless otherwise noted.
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