Super Bowl 54: 49ers vs. Chiefs MVP Favorites and Stat Predictions

Kristopher KnoxJan 28, 2020

Super Bowl 54 is just a few days away, which is terrific news for casual and diehard NFL supporters—not to mention the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers fans. This is the biggest game of the year and one heck of a social event.

The Super Bowl is also a dream for bettors, who have a plethora of prop bets and daily fantasy sports options to choose from. From the number of halftime songs to the first player to score a touchdown, people can wager on just about anything.

Here, we'll examine some of the top wagering and fantasy options for Sunday's game.

TOP NEWS

Super Bowl 54

When: Sunday, February 2, at 6:30 p.m. ET

Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami

TV and Live Stream: Fox, Fox Sports Go

Odds, Over/Under (from Caesars): KC -1, 54.5

MVP Favorites

While it doesn't always receive as much attention as the regular-season MVP award, the Super Bowl MVP is the title most players would like to receive since it usually comes with a championship ring.

Though there have been exceptions—last year's winner was New England Patriots receiver Julian Edelman—the award has regularly gone to the winning quarterback in recent years.

Eight of the past 12 Super Bowl MVPs were quarterbacks, and 10 were offensive players.

Unsurprisingly, Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo have the best odds to win Super Bowl MVP this year, according to Bovada.

They aren't the only viable candidates for the award, though. San Francisco running back Raheem Mostert, who rushed for 220 yards in the NFC title game, could dominate enough to win. Travis Kelce or George Kittle could follow Edelman as the most valuable pass-catcher in the Super Bowl.

Pass-rusher Von Miller won the award at Super Bowl 50, and defenders such as Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and Chris Jones could do the same with dominant performances. However, defensive MVPs are rare. There have only been four since the turn of the century.

Top MVP Odds

Patrick Mahomes: 21-20

Jimmy Garoppolo: 13-5

Raheem Mostert: 7-1

George Kittle: 14-1

Travis Kelce: 14-1

Tyreek Hill: 15-1

Damien Williams: 20-1

Nick Bosa: 20-1

Most Passing Yards

Continuing the quarterback love, let's take a look at an enticing prop from Oddschecker. Wagers can be placed on which one has the most passing yards, with Garoppolo being the clear long shot.

Mahomes is listed at -333 (wager $333 to win $100), while the third-year San Francisco QB is +245 (bet $100 to win $245).

The Chiefs have relied on the pass far more than the 49ers this season, in part because they have Mahomes and also because they don't have an upper-echelon backfield. During the regular season, Kansas City ranked fifth in passing, while San Francisco ranked 13th.

When one factors in the Chiefs' lackluster run defense—ranked 26th in the regular season—it seems likely the 49ers will continue leaning on the run Sunday.

The defenses will have something to say about how the passing numbers come together, but from an opportunity standpoint, Mahomes has the edge.

Fantasy Projections

While there is potential for either Mahomes or Garoppolo to take over the game, a pair of quality pass-rushing units—the Chiefs and 49ers combined for 103 sacks during the season—should temper expectations just a bit. However, this doesn't mean there won't be some big-time fantasy producers Sunday.

Here, we'll take a crack at projecting the top DFS flex options for Super Bowl 54. Factors like projected role, player health and matchups are considered here. Rankings are based on point-per-reception scoring.